Russia's Hidden War Debt
navigatingrussia.substack.com
navigatingrussia.substack.com
So, what would happen to those 6 million barrels a day if the West stopped buying? Russian officials have threatened to send it “elsewhere,” while the media have focused on stories of stepped-up sales to China and India. But this threat of a redirection to Asia is a paper tiger. - Apr 26, 2022
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/04/26/sanction-r...
Once sanctions are fully in place, Russia’s total crude and product exports (seaborne + land) could fall by as much as 3.3 to 3.9 million barrels a day from a baseline of 7.5 million barrels a day - Oct 19, 2022
https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/putins-looming-tanke...
Lots of convincing details and analysis about how oil would be stranded in Russia or forced to sell to the west at a deep discount due to the "price cap" strategy. So what are Russian oil exports looking like 2 years later?
Russia continues as a dominant oil exporter in 2023 despite global sanctions, maintaining a yearly export volume of around 7.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), as per analysis by the International Energy Agency.
With EU/UK/US markets turning away, Russia has pivoted towards India, China, Türkiye, and countries in the Middle East, retaining its position as the world’s second largest oil exporter behind the US in 2023.
https://qery.no/russian-oil-exports-pivots-towards-the-east/
According to the [IEA], Russian ... exports have remarkably steady around 7.5 million barrels per day (although there has been a big shift away from supplying the EU directly)
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/how-make-price-cap-russian-oi...
[1] https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/chinas-slowing-oil-dem...
[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-demand-set-peak-...
The American foreign policy establishment abandoned trumps deterrence policy which stopped putin invading in 2018.
https://kyivindependent.com/trump-suggested-he-would-have-bo...
He also talked about this conversation with Putin in the Joe Rogan interview.
If Trump had weakened NATO it would have made an invasion more likely, not less.
Trumpy tantrums did nothing.
Further the Biden Afghan withdrawal convinced Putin that Biden wouldn't react.
Trumpy tantrums did nothing, I repeat. Neither is he going to do anything useful once he gets back into the office. Putin will play him off like a sucker he is.
It's makes even less sense than parent comment
His plan had clearly been to repeat that exercise to boost his ratings by the next election (in 2024). 2018 was too early for that.
We now can see that the preparation for the war started in 2020-2021. For example, Putin made sure that Russia had a big enough monetary Reserve Fund. And unlike many other countries, Russia did not do state-sponsored economic stimulation during the lockdowns.
Biden + COVID changed the landscape enough that Putin and the FSB advisors who did the planning were convinced they could (and arguably, had to, since his Trump ace-in-the-hole was not certain) make a move. Thus a 2022 invasion.
Rather than help Ukraine quickly win the war they prefer to slow bleed Russia to help their aims in Syria, Iran, Taiwan etc.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-...
At this stage it is impossible to say whether Syria and possibly Greenland are part of a bargain to end the Ukraine war (You get the four provinces, we get Syria and take Greenland from the EU, probably by political influence via NGOs and a sort of color revolution that leads to the "independence" of Greenland).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colour_revolution
But thanks for updating us on the latest forbidden term. I wonder how many words we will have left next year.
In the paranoid claims and propaganda of dictators they claim they were something else
If you want to indulge in pointless conspiracies (some of which are heavily pushed by foreign dictators) go ahead
By fall 2023 they knew the score. But they couldn’t get out then and they still can’t.
That’s really what it boils down to for people like you: the production values. No contest, the US is unbeatable in that department. Anything but to be seen as a sucker.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%82%D1%8...
And yes, your foreign shilling is that obvious.
Regarding Ukraine, Biden was the one who made the decision not to get the US directly involved in the war. Sullivan even had to play devil's advocate in Biden's decision, because he and the CIA chief thought it was a horrible idea to announce to the world that we were committing to zero troops on the ground. One of Biden's biggest beliefs is that "great powers don't bluff," though, so it was important for Biden to clearly communicate the limits of US engagement in the conflict.
He wanted the Ukrainians to know (according to the reporting in the book) that the US would supply and support them, but the cavalry would not be charging over the hill to save the day. If some horrible event happened in Ukraine, he knew that his generals, the media, and the public would look to him and say "well, don't you think now is the time we should get American boots on the ground? Why aren't you acting?"
The Biden administration slow rolled delivering tanks/jets/ATACMS for years. For ATACMS in Russia they delayed over two years. The options were never just doing nothing or put boots on the ground.
Should they have given them more arms, and faster? Maybe, but we have the benefit of hindsight. The Biden admin was constantly worried about Russia's threats of nuclear weapons, which the intelligence agencies were reporting as credible.
This is all detailed in Woodward's book.
His cognitive dissonance was on display on live television multiple times where he struggles to speak or even walk. Unless all that was a deliberate act for media, I see no reason to believe Mr. Bob was being truthful
Woodward writes about a time when Biden had taken a friend on a private tour through the residences of the White House, and when they came upon a picture of his son Beau Biden, the President seemed to become "transfixed" on it (my words, I'm paraphrasing from memory) and couldn't stop talking about his son for what seemed like an uncomfortable amount of time.
He also wrote about another time during Biden's reelection campaign where Biden went to a private fundraising event in Silicon Valley and seemed so "out of it" (again, my words, paraphrasing from memory) that one of the SV bigwigs there called Biden's chief of staff with grave concerns about the President's health and ability to run for reelection.
The book is well worth the read, whether you're a Trump supporter, Biden supporter or just interested in politics and foreign policy in general.
Also We are talking about Biden who introduced Zelensky as __President Putin__ in an event organized for Zelensky. I refuse to believe Mr. Biden was able to commandeer or come with any of the plans Mr. Bob described.
That's also covered in the book. Again, if you’re interested in this topic, I’d really recommend giving it a read or borrowing it from the library. You might find some new perspectives on Biden’s presidency — just like I did for some aspects of Trump’s while reading War and his more recent books. Or maybe you'll come away from it totally vindicated in your views. Either way, it's an insightful read with enough nuance in there for both outcomes.
1.) there's no need to focus on barrels per day; fuel export revenue per day is more important. and from the link, we can see that it was around 1B EUR per day in 2022, and now it's around 600M EUR per day in Dec. 2024. Not great, but as we will see, it's mainly propped up by China.
2.) top 4 buyers of Russia fossil fuels in December 2024 are China, Turkey, India, and EU. China being top buyer is not surprising, given they are allied in the war - China is cutting off drones to Ukraine while supplying more to Russia.
3.) fossil fuel shipment departures from Russia has steadily declined from 80% in Jan 2022, to less than 20% in December 2024.
What does No. 3 mean?
The co-mingling of Russian and Chinese naval forces is also very evident recently, with the recent cutting of European underwater cable. Are Russia and China conducting undersea sabotage? | DW News https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObgVV-HJtI
Doesn’t make their oil carrying capacity any lesser.
They’re derelicts fond of puking up their contents [1]. More practically, dark crude sells at a 20 to 30% discount. (Granted, I know the Indian numbers more confidently than the Chinese refiners’.)
[1] https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-shadow-fleet-tanker-o...
this is still a question? yes, they are.
If I were China's (one of the world's largest creditors, I might note) leadership then there is a pretty good chance I would backstop Russia's debt in this case just to see how badly it hurts the US. Bonus points that then there is financial leverage over a resources superpower who's resources are needed for China's industry.
1) Ukraine shouldn't have been stationing CIA bases and taking military aid from the US before the war. It was stupid strategy and eventually got them invaded.
2) They should have surrendered on day 1. That would have gotten them a bad deal but not so many people dying.
3) They should still surrender on day 1,050. That'd get them a much worse deal and they've suffered who knows how many 100,000s of casualties for nothing. But it'd at least be over.
4) If we extrapolate from the poor quality of the Ukrainian leadership's decisions so far the worst case is the other side of the coin flip on things like:
> The U.S. intelligence pointed to a 50% chance that Putin would use tactical nukes...
~ https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-putin-biden-nu...
and there are a lot of deaths. I mean, hopefully Bob Woodward is a known liar because that is not a can of worms to open over questions like whether Moscow controls Kyiv. Many of us have lived in a world where Moscow controled Kyiv, it isn't that wildly new. While terrible it just isn't that big an issue. We've coped with the US invading multiple random countries in the Middle East, and while it is icky and unpleasant it is not as bad as the tactical nuke taboo breaking or something like the million casualties we're seeing in the Ukraine war from the West's policy of escalation.
Citation please. This sounds exactly like the lies Putin says to justify the invasion.
"They should have surrendered on day 1."
So if your country is invaded you would surrender "day one"?
"If we extrapolate from the poor quality of the Ukrainian leadership's decisions so far "
What decisions would those be? Zelensky has done a very good job in a very difficult situation.
Or refer to Trump Impeachment 1, the fuss at the time involved sending military aid to Ukraine.
> So if your country is invaded you would surrender "day one"?
Yes. If a bloody loss is inevitable that is explicitly what I'm saying. If we were invaded by the likes of New Zealand, Papua New Guinea then I'd probably be OK with fighting. But we were going to be the site of a proxy war the smart thing to do is fold immediately and ask the majors to go elsewhere. Australia wouldn't survive a China-US proxy war if it has reached the point of an actual invasion, we'd be better off surrendering and making do. Although I'd be pointing that out after having attempted to flee the country for obvious reasons.
Ukrainians understand better than anyone just how much you DO NOT want to be under the thumb of Putin. I don't blame them for fighting back.
And this isn't, or at least did not start out as a "Russia-US proxy war". Ukraine is a sovereign country that sensibly wanted to forge strong ties to Europe and the West. For selfish and egotistical reasons Putin hated that idea and his puppet was going to ignore this desire so Ukrainians kicked him out.
But what the Ukrainian politicians then did wasn't sensible. They've been broken. They have some of the poorest political leadership we've seen out of any country so far in the 21st century. They've managed to transition their country from comfortable and improving to a smouldering wreck. At every turn they've managed to find an option that leaves them unambiguously worse off than they were before. It is a case study in diplomatic failure and what not to do when threatened by a larger, more militarily competent neighbour.
No that was Russia. What you are doing is blaming a women for being punched in the face because she fought back against a rapist.
Ukranian politicians were extremely corrupted[1][2] and they would rather align with money than maintain a stable relation with both countries.
Now they are fighting a proxy war on life support while their Economy runs to ground.
[1] https://kyivindependent.com/top-10-political-scandals-of-202...
[2] https://www.npr.org/2024/01/28/1227447442/ukraine-says-corru...
You sound exactly like Putin. How strange.
Putin's moronic invasion of Ukraine has done a huge amount of damage to Russia's economy. Russia's per capita GDP could be double what it is if Putin wasn't such a complete moron.
Corruption cases among top ranks of Ukr government isn't helping either.
You make some reasonable points but they are mixed in with extremely typical Russia talking points like "Corruption cases among top ranks of Ukr government isn't helping either." You want corruption? Putin's wealth is impossible to estimate because he can take money directly from the Russian treasure and also force many oligarchs to let him user their yachts and homes.
Ukraine proposed to join NATO and EU about a year before war. Both of which could bring significant money to Ukr.
> extremely typical Russia talking points like... You want corruption? Putin's wealth...
Once again, Ukraine is in debt of EU/US, NOT Russia or Putin. Corruption in Ukraine matters cause it's international debt.
Top level Ukr officials are making billions, purchasing properties in EU and going on vacation while thier soldiers are running out of supplies. And who/how do you think this debt would be paid back? Who is profiting from this war?
[1]https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/ben-gvir-outrage-blocked-h...
No, many more would have died. It's not even a speculation at this point, but a reasonable conclusion that is solidly grounded in facts. Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea put up little resistance in 2014 and that didn't save them. Their male population was forcibly conscripted to fight against Ukraine and has been decimated by the deliberately wasteful way they were used. Russia hit three bird with one stone: a) physically got rid of Ukrainians, Tatars and other people loyal to Ukraine, b) reduced the number of Russian citizens dying in the war to keep internal dissent down, c) stole the property of deceased conscripts and gave their homes to resettlers from Russia to further russify the occupied territories.
Everyone in Ukraine knows these simple truths and that's why the idea of surrendering to Russia remains out of the question. Horror stories from the occupied territories shatter any illusions about peace under Russian control.
Well, guess what, they DID surrender on day one. This was back in early 2014. The result? Two more invasions.
Russia exposed the West’s military unpreparedness. We’re correcting to the tune of trillions of collective dollars of defence investment.
> then there is financial leverage over a resources superpower who's resources are needed for China's industry
China already practically has this. That said, yes—the article’s analysis fails to account for a likely Chinese bail-out of the Russian banking system.
The US wants to live in a backwards world where massive debtors can sustain wars indefinitely but creditors will get exhausted. It'd be great for them if that works, but I'd tag that sort of thinking as a big contributing factor in Trump returning to the White House. They don't seem to have the juice to pull a war with Russia off.
> US wants to live in a backwards world where massive debtors can sustain wars indefinitely but creditors will get exhausted
Weird side street to get lost in while discussing Russia getting financially bailed out by China.
My brother in Christ, Russia can’t even pull off a war with its much smaller neighbor who is using NATO’s scraps and hand-me-downs.
I have a much easier time believing that NATO has given Ukraine all the support it can and it wasn't enough to halt the Russian advance. The Russians are clearly paying a terrible price, but NATO doesn't believe it can charge any more than that.
What is the end goal? What happens when Zelenskys friends are no longer in power? How does Zelensky plan to repay his debts during/after war??? Become a satellite state like Japan and S.Korea??
Russia on the other hand…
At the end, it's Ukraine who is dependent on and in debt of EU and US.
As long as the conflict goes on, politicians gets their cut, no one talks about it but once everything cools down there would be lot of questions regarding who pays what.
Ukraine may be a flawed liberal democracy but it is a liberal democracy. Ukraine will join the EU after the war. The rebuilding EU subsidies and anti corruption measures that will need to take place to join the EU will significantly grow the economy.
The end goal is the defeat of Russia and then giving up conquering their neighbors. And that Ukraine will remain a liberal democratic state.
Zelensky will be out of office someday, he's not a dictator like Putin. Some of the debt will be forgiven the rest will be repaid someday. A state has a long lifespan and can repay large loans over that lifespan especially if the economy significantly improves. It may take a 100 years
"Escalation management and Biden’s strategy for Ukraine"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxZ402BMSs8
See it as Ukraine being drip-fed western weapons in just enough quantities to completely tie up Russia.
Also the gentleman's dismissal of red line escalation seems unsound. From a game theory perspective the argument is full of holes.
The point is that the EU and especially the US could do way more, but they are not doing it due to escalation management.
They are perfectly happy to keep Russia occupied bleeding themselves dry. The last thing the west wants is a cornered Russia lashing out with nuclear weapons or suddenly collapsing.
It is a very calculated slow collapse for Russia.
Iraq with approx 1.3 million troops and a lot of Russian equipment collapsed in a month or so. The problems there were not that the US side had much problem destroying Iraq so much as they had a tough job rebuilding after. There are probably similar concerns here.
Also notice that the US was in a much more dominant international position 20 years ago. They had a level of moral and economic leadership that they ceded through the early part of the 21st century - the moral part mainly because of the thuggery in Iraq and Afghanistan. If we had a replay we might discover that they can't even handle Iraq any more, I doubt the Russia & the Asians would take it on the chin quite so willingly.
Been saying this for years now. A quick win, or a quick loss, means Russia has time to recoup losses and rearm for the next engagement, likely Ukraine round 3, etc.
Instead, keep them tied up and burning through the massive Soviet surpluses of hardware, strain the already shaky economy, and accelerate the already-happening demographic collapse. Russian arms trades are already suffering, and several countries have cancelled their orders -- they know they won't get them, or have seen the goods in action and don't want them. And then there is the shot in the arm for NATO funding -- Europe is re-arming -- and has Sweden and Finland in the club as well.
The Russians aren't dumb and are willing to take some hardship, and have thus far been able to get around some of the demographic losses by using prisoners and ethnic minorities. Trade with India and China has thus far kept up, and China, too, is getting a shot in the arm via cheap oil and an imputus to innovate drone tech. Looking like Spanish Civil War 2.0 in a lot of ways...
Massive investment in domestic defence production, improved border and maritime security, disconnection of the reliance on Russia for oil/gas etc. All of which will be useful given the likely souring of the EU/US relationship over the coming years.
> Massive investment in domestic defence production
Is that actually happening? My understanding is there was a lot of rhetoric, but the actual efforts have stalled:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/world/europe/germany-budg...: Germany Promised to Step Up Militarily. Its Budget Says Differently.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/world/europe/germany-mili...: Germany’s Much-Vaunted Strategic Pivot Stalls