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Comment by Aurornis | Hacker News Reader

> Given the mismatch between public sentiment and the reporting on all things Luigi Mangione, the establishment is really scared

Polling numbers (actual gauge of public sentiment) show a net disapproval for Mangione: https://stratpolitics.org/2024/12/unitedhealthcare-poll/

If anything, the news media has been trying to push the Mangione debate and controversy at every chance, like the above article that was selectively written to highlight demographic groups that showed higher approval of Mangione first.

Thinking that “the establishment” is a collective of all major companies that act in unison is conspiratorial thinking. Don’t think for a second that the news media wouldn’t hesitate to push and profit from the controversy.

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> Polling numbers (actual gauge of public sentiment)

Polls have never been faithful of actual public sentiment on any political subject since the end of times. People will not give their true opinions in polls on any subject that could be perceived as complex. Also it is actually very hard to have a good representation of the entire population of your country.

Just take the crosstabs of the survey you linked: about the 2024 election vote, in this survey, 70% of people polled are negative toward trump. The 2024 election results gave almost 50% of the popular vote to trump.

My point is only that this poll do not bring any valuable information here, just like any poll. The public sentiment toward Luigi Mangione seems favorable in appearance, but twitter is not representative of the US population either. So, who knows?

>in this survey, 70% of people polled are negative toward trump. The 2024 election results gave almost 50% of the popular vote to trump

This isn't surprising, as you don't have to like someone to vote for them. Especially in a two-party system. Trump is uniquely disliked by many Republicans, but those voters still prefer to have a Republican in office rather than a Democrat. It's "hold your nose and vote". The (center-)left even developed a slogan for it: "vote blue no matter who".

Polls have not proven the most reliable in recent times. I can tell some folks avoid him as a topic, but I've yet to see anyone I know in any socioeconomic class or age group seemingly do anything besides avoid acknowledging him, express support, or express support with some kind of caveat.

You live in a bubble, even in the real world. In fact, your real-world bubble is usually stronger than your online bubble. Just because your bubble shows support for murder doesn't mean that most people do.

What can you tell me about stratpolitics.org and how you came across this poll?

It's been widely discredited as the company that released it seems to have come out of thin air with no history and has a patron account:

https://www.patreon.com/StratPolitics

From a brief look at their "people" page, it seems like they're all involved with chapters of the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America). If anything, this suggests against foul play, as their incentive would be to denigrate for-profit healthcare and overstate support for Mangione.

I am wary of the accuracy of the poll because it was an online one, but it does generally agree with a similar Economist/YouGov poll.

> Polling numbers (actual gauge of public sentiment) show a net disapproval for Mangione:

Do you trust those polls?

If you flood the world with enough polls, you get ones saying what you want, especially if you pay for them

As cleverly demonstrate in this famous scene from Yes, Prime Minister

https://youtu.be/ahgjEjJkZks?si=VtYSzCoD_7-kyvhs

Or any research paid for by the sugar or tobacco industry

Owen Jones "the establishment and how they get away with it" points to the _evidence_ for the conspiracy without providing the mechanism. The existence of an establishment (in the conspiratorial sense) is rather like gravity - hard to deny but who knows how it works. Just saying..

At the risk of sounding like a conspiracist, I absolutely do not believe any polling number from established institutions here.

I can believe it to some degree. Believing that what the killer did is wrong, and being unsympathetic to Brian Thompson's death isn't mutually exclusive.

They don't even need to do anything especially conspiratorial, I would expect those polls to have substantial anti-Mangione bias by construction.

Many people will want to avoid being on record as supporting a murderer, for fear of any consequences down the line. I know polls are almost certainly anonymous, but you need to trust the pollster to actually abide by that. If you have even an inch of worry, it's easier to just not answer (or answer insincerely) and move on.

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