Show HN: Prognoze – Leveraged Prediction Markets

Hey HN!

I built and launched Prognoze, a sustainable onchain prediction market platform that allows users to trade event markets with up to 10x leverage.

Leverage in prediction markets is made possible by a new-generation innovative virtual Automatic Market Market (vAMM) model purposely built for prediction markets. This model creates a synthetic leveraged trading experience without the need for liquidity providers.

Like Uniswap and other spot crypto markets, traders can trade an event market contract directly without needing counterparties, market makers, liquidity providers, or order books. The model ensures onchain liquidity based on constant product curves, as pioneered by Uniswap's AMM model.

Unlike perpetual futures trading platforms, market prices on Prognoze are path-independent and not anchored to any external sources of information, ensuring the stability and sustainability of the markets.

The lifecycle of a prediction market on Prognoze is split into two distinct trading stages. These stages use different profit-and-loss (PnL) calculation methods to ensure the sustainability of the markets and profitability for the traders.

Open Trading Stage: Traders buy Yes or No shares with leverage, and each trade impacts the YES and NO share prices. PnL is directly linked to the YES or NO share price, and traders can realize the position's profit or loss on demand.

Resolution Stage: After the market's outcome is accepted, trading ends. Winning traders divide the losing side's total collateral, while the losing traders lose the entire collateral of their positions in the market. To supplement traders' profits at this stage, the fees accumulated in the Reward Pool are shared with the winning traders.