Socialcam Founder: There Will Be No Instagram of Video

pandodaily.com

26 points·mlinsey··12 comments

There was. It's called YouTube.

Right. I don't really see where they thought this was going to go. In my opinion, this is much better outcome than what should have been expected.

"Instagram" means mobile here, so a mobile video exploding success hasn't happened yet.

Youtube is huge on mobile, it just isn't the core of Youtube.

By this logic, Flickr was an Instagram for pictures.

It could have been.

:,(

>No one invests hoping for a mere 3x return.

As in, in the VC sense where you expect most people to fail, etc, right?

'Cos any day of the week I'd like to have some access to 300% returns. Especially 300% in 6 months.

In VC mathematics, you always divide by the entire lifetime of the fund to calculate your rate of return, because there's no recycling allowed. You also got to factor in compound interest and management fees, so in Socialcam's case, this works out to about 3-4% return. Dan Shapiro explained it well here:

http://www.danshapiro.com/blog/2010/08/vc-insanity-economics...

edit: calculating Socialcam's ROI

The HN discussions on the article are also very good:

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3683607

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1598728

Er, final line is "There may still be an Instagram-style winner in the social video race..."

Winner, yes, but I think the core of it is that he doesn't believe there will be a billion dollar exit.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com