The situation certainly won't be similar 3-5 years down the line, but it also won't necessarily be different in the way that people are predicting.
In the section about the 70% problem, the author writes:
> The good news? This gap will likely narrow as tools improve.
This is not a fact, it's a prediction, an article of faith. It's a common prediction, that these tools will only get better over time, but that's not guaranteed! I think it's likely as well, provided you define "improve" incredibly pedantically, but the unspoken part of this prediction is that the tools will improve _significantly,_ and _that_ part is one I have doubts about.
Honestly, I think it's pretty likely that we've just about hit the local maximum of our current techniques - training newer, bigger models is fantastically expensive and doesn't seem to have the same jumps in capability as earlier generations did, and stringing together a bunch of models in an agent produces frankly only modest improvements for the cost increase.
I've written about "the 70% problem" before (not by name, though), and my biggest worry there is that you require experience and good judgement to be able to use these tools effectively, and these tools by their nature erode that good judgement and deny you the experience. Juniors won't have to work through "the tough parts" of programming and build up the skills required to understand when an LLM is leading them astray, and even experienced programmers can lose familiarity with their own codebases as they rely on LLMs to provide the "understanding." Think of all the times where you haven't had to interact with a service for months, how long it takes to warm back up to it -- what about when that's _most_ of your code, because LLMs have been preventing you from needing to gain any deep understanding about it?
What happens if, in 3-5 years, LLMs don't get significantly better, but we've stopped producing properly capable Intermediate and Senior developers, and even started atrophying the skills of existing Seniors?
(Couple this with LLM-using developers who can move mountains in a day to kickstart new projects and get promoted, but leave behind a trashfire of a codebase for more "classically" experienced developers to clean up and maintain at a much slower pace. That's a problem that's _always_ been in the industry, just magnified due to the power of LLMs.)