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If you include all 26m visitors, the duration that an event could occur correspondingly gets much smaller, from 83 years to whatever the average stay is, which might be days. So it turns out to be about the same.

Anyway, you can Google “how does insurance modeling work” and see for yourself. There are whole teams of people who do this modeling. I am just sharing a simple and representative model, better than to an order of magnitude.

I don't think it does unless you assume that San Francisco roadways are on aggregate dramatically safer or more dangerous than other places.

Indeed. If we assume two days per visitor, that would be 140k additional people.