Adaptation to a Viscous Snowball Earth Ocean as Path to Complex Multicellularity (2021)
journals.uchicago.edu
journals.uchicago.edu
https://nick-lane.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Lane-J-Theo...
OR ... the switch to multicellular life was triggered by some sort of event, an evolved response to an environmental change. In that case then it is reasonable to think that it would happen on other planets too. So I really do hope that it wasn't a matter of pure chance. I want us to meet or at lease hear someone else some day.
This is still a "by pure chance" event, yea? Otherwise we're just back to intelligent design. Surely the issue is that we have fundamentally few ways of analyzing how probable that single event is/was.
There is also a meta layer to evolution, that organisms can "evolve to evolve", that the rate of "random" mutations can itself be an evolved trait. An organism unable to evolve, say with locked-in genetic code, will not adapt. Sexual reproduction arguably is such a system: an evolved system that regulates future evolution. So even base mutations may not be totally random.
Sure, if you chuck the concept of a lottery out the window. It's literally a genetic lottery. C'mon we can do better than this bullshit.
Some of the algae, i.e. the red algae and the green algae, appear to have acquired multicellularity several hundred million years before the animals, i.e. around one billion years ago, if their fossils have been interpreted correctly.
The water viscosity hypothesis would not have been applicable to algae anyway, because their multicellularity has been developed to enable them to stay in a fixed position, attached to the ocean floor, not to move faster, like in the case of animals.
Similarly, the fungi have acquired their multicellularity later than the animals, after more than one hundred million years and their multicellularity has been developed during their adaptation to a terrestrial life, where fungi have lost their mobility due to acquiring a cell wall that prevents drying in air, but also movement.
For the animals, this hypothesis could be true, at least as a partial explanation of the advantages of multicellularity at that time.
In any case, besides the inappropriate mentioning of algae and fungi, the article has also other places with sloppy editing. It should have been revised more carefully.
For instance it says "In eukaryotes, adding cilia or flagella does not increase motility, nor does increasing cell size lead to a major increase in velocity", which is false and the article itself contradicts immediately this sentence by writing "Ciliates are much faster than flagellate eukaryotes".
Indeed, ciliates are much faster than flagellates, because they are bigger and they add a lot of cilia, which results in a major increase in their velocity, as correctly said in the second sentence, in contradiction with the first sentence.
So one way to overcome viscosity is the way of the ciliates, which, instead of associating multiple cells into a bigger body, like animals, have developed a more complex cellular structure, which allows bigger cells with a great number of cilia. There are many kinds of very small animals, with sizes typically under one millimeter, like rotifers and gastrotrichs, which are almost indistinguishable in size, speed and behavior from ciliates.
So up to a certain size threshold the two ways, of ciliates and of animals, are equivalent, but the ciliates have a size limit that is easily overcome by the multicellular animals.
It is very likely that the ancestor of all animals looked very similar to a huge ciliate, i.e. like the ctenophores (comb jellies) still look today. For ctenophores and for several other groups of simple animals the main method of locomotion is by using cilia, not muscles, and this appears to be a primitive characteristic of animals. The replacement of cilia with muscles appears to be a later development, caused by the evolution towards greater sizes, where cilia were no longer efficient.
All the sedentary groups of animals, like sponges and cnidarians, are unlikely to be primitive in this respect, but they have evolved from mobile ancestors. There are many well known cases when some groups of animals have evolved from a mobile life style to a sedentary life style, and then a few of the sedentary have then evolved to be mobile again, but in such cases those that have evolved to be mobile from sedentary, like medusae or salpae, have developed more peculiar ways of locomotion, they have never regained the same method of locomotion of their mobile ancestors. Therefore the evolution of most mobile animals from sponges is far more unlikely than the evolution of sponges from ctenophore-like ciliated animals, which is a kind of evolution that has been seen in a very large number of examples in other animals, for instance in tunicates.
No doubt water temperature/viscocity - environmental factors - did provide an evolutionary pressure for some extant species, but it seems highly speculative to try to write an exact evolutionary history of what factors drove what changes.
The prevalence of unicellular life on Earth should tell you that this is a malformed question.
What I really meant, rather than multicellularity being invincible, was that it's an obviously beneficial direction, and doesn't seem like it would need any extreme environmental stress to prove beneficial.
If the GF is in front of us, in a universe with lots of ETI, our chances of evading it are extremely small. After all, no one else has; why would we be so special?
Nick Bostrum has called detection of ETI, or even complex ET life, the worst news mankind would ever receive. It would be a death sentence for our future.
Great distances and inherent speed limits seem like a decent way to accomplish that.
Now, perhaps it's universally true that civilizations don't advance much beyond where we currently are, or don't persist for sufficiently long for interstellar colonization to be successful. These would also be very depressing outcomes if they are imposed on us by the GF.
When a colony ship arrives to a new planet, it'll need to bootstrap a full industrial chain before it can build its own colony ships to expand to other systems. It's reasonable to assume there would be little incentive for that before the colony starts to require off-planet resources on their own system, and, therefore, has a compelling reason to build a space economy. For us, this would easily be in the thousands of years even if no terraforming is needed, and let's not even consider we'd need a consistent multi-century planning to get there. Precursor missions with automated in-situ resource collection and storage would allow colonists to arrive to a fully built and stocked colony, which would save some time. Existing biospheres might present issues of toxicity and biological risks: you really don't want to grow up on a (Dune's) Rossak (even if it grants you superpowers).
So, let's say Earth manages to establish 10 successful extra-solar colonies over 5 thousand years. It'll be at least a good couple thousand years until those successful colonies can each establish 10 others and raise the number to 100 worlds. If we manage to diligently expand at that exponential ration, we'll soon bump into other intelligent space-faring species that also share this commitment to reproduce.
Here's a good place to start:
https://joshworth.com/dev/pixelspace/pixelspace_solarsystem....
Signals diminish with the square of distance. SETI would never hear anything from other stars unless it was broadcast with insanely high transmit power or was directed right at us (and still very powerful). Nobody would do that unless they knew someone was here actively listening.
https://briankoberlein.com/blog/et-phone-home/
So for example, to reach the Centauri system (the nearest star) with a signal as powerful as the signal Voyager sends to Earth would require a transmit power of over 100 megawatts at a minimum. That's just the nearest star. It gets exponentially harder as you go further out. For more distant stars you're talking gigawatts or terawatts or beyond.
Even barring concerns about attracting attention, why dedicate that kind of resources to operate an interstellar border blaster if you don't even have a reason to think anyone's listening, and if you won't get a reply for hundreds or thousands of years?
If you are going to sterilize Earth you might as well just terraform something dead. This isn’t even getting into the ethical questions, just looking at practicality.
If you’ve got the technology to come here, well, you might as well terraform something dead. We almost have the technology to terraform Mars (albeit over thousands of years) and it seems easier to do and possibly faster than interstellar flight.
Building giant space station habitats is also easier than interstellar flight. Uploading brains to machines, which would allow settlement of almost anywhere, is probably easier than interstellar flight. AGI is probably easier than interstellar flight.
In fact interstellar flight is so hard it might rarely be attempted anywhere by anyone unless there’s a forcing function like one’s star becoming unstable or some other cosmic scale calamity. Solar systems are huge and contain vast amounts of resources.
That could mean a lot of things including just chance. There could be galaxies out there that have in fact been fully colonized.
Imperialism usually burns out after a while as the cost begins to exceed the benefit.
I could see a universe of mostly steady state civilizations that experience occasional bouts of expansionism or the sending of things like the Nauvoo from The Expanse. But those are transient events. This would greatly increase the time required for the galaxy to become saturated with life as per Fermi paradox models. It might happen eventually, meaning if we wait long enough some alien Mormons might show up. (The Expanse reference.)
Then consider that intelligence is probably a recent (on cosmic time scales) phenomenon due to metallicity. Previous generations of stars and planets probably lack the mineral diversity to support complex intelligent life.
There will be strong selection for expansionist cultures and species. As long as the universe is mostly unoccupied, expansion means increasing your share of the total population. Relatively static cultures will simply become irrelevant compared to their expansionist competitors. The experience on Earth recently is in the context of a world where all places that can be occupied (at the current tech level) have been.
The selection effect will operate at the biological level as well. Currently on Earth birth rates are declining. Modern civilization is acting like a kind of pesticide. But like any pesticide, it's going to select for resistance. This will likely mean more people will have an increased desire to have children. Selecting for this may take a while, but on the time scales involved in this thread it would happen very quickly.
In the long term, all societies in which selection is allowed to operate will push up against limits and be in states of Malthusian equilibrium. To counter this would require an unreasonable uniformity of control across time and space. All ET species, at all points in their history once they can undertake colonization, will have to exert rigid control on their societies and biology. Any defections from this uniformity will explode exponentially and overwhelm those who are not controlled.
Metallicity is not a good argument, since there are zones, even in our own galaxy, with higher metallicity. Closer in to the center, for example. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-023-01977-z
Why couldn't there be a very large number of low-probability filters and/or a continuous probability of failure spread across billions of years? Add them all up and the cumulative effect would be the same as a single great filter, but there would not be one single primary hurdle that needs to be cleared.
This and the Fermi paradox itself are really just speculations. We have only one data point, which makes it impossible to say anything definitive.