Where will AI be at the end of 2027? A bet

I'm underwhelmed by the selection of tasks. They're mostly along the lines of "write something that's prize worthy". I'd expect something more creative and concrete. Something equivalent to the coffee test in robotics:

> A machine is required to enter an average American home and figure out how to make coffee: find the coffee machine, find the coffee, add water, find a mug, and brew the coffee by pushing the proper buttons. This has not yet been completed.

Right now AI can do most of this stuff. It can write an obituary or a screenplay, whether its good or not is rather subjective and I imagine it will better be able to distill and imitate "award worthy" pieces of art and will be able to reproduce them. But that's just a linear extrapolation of what it's currently doing. It's not a paradigm shift or symbolic of some kind of general intelligence.

“These odds do not reflect a lack of confidence on Gary’s part”

Then what else could they possibly represent?

“Reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.]”

This seems to preference beginner code over expert code if you’re not gluing libraries together.