> I have to assume the traffic over the SPI bus is encrypted so the key can't just be dumped like that
It's not. For some reason, Microsoft don't use TPM parameter encryption, even though every year or two some security researcher or another comes up with another stunt TPM-sniffing device to parade around.
> With LUKS it at least has a password prompt to unlock the drive.
Configuration dependent. You can set up Linux to do the same thing as Windows here (I have my home video-security server set up this way, as it needs to reboot silently - I know that I'm vulnerable to warm/coldboot attack and software attack surface, but at least if someone yoinks the drive I'm safe), and Windows can also be configured to prompt for a password or use PIN-authenticated TPM sealed keys.
> Fundamentally I don't understand BitLocker's security model.
Minus the parameter encryption / bus-sniffing issue, it moves the boundary from "anyone can read your drive" to "someone needs to either perform a platform-level attack to access the contents of memory, or hack whatever services are running at the login screen to read your drive." It's a decent security improvement, actually, because it protects very well against stuff like "someone stole our financial data off of a random recycled hard drive."