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Comment by readthenotes1 | Hacker News Reader

I wonder how long my great grandad would have lived if he hadn't smoked? He started smoking at 10 and died at 90.

Their math says roughly to 109.

That's not how expectancy works. Perhaps if you had n great grandads, with n approaching infinity, on average they would make it to 109. But there is no telling for your own particular grandad.

Hm Is the 20 minutes/cigarette solid then?

My grandfather smoked packs of cigs/day from his 11th when he started working his parents fields. My mother never saw him without a sigaretten in his mouth. Died obese and still smoking at 96 suddenly (no known health issues). Seems a lot longer, but of course he wouldn't. And a lot less happy I think: the guy never stopped smiling and cracking jokes and singing; he liked his drink, smoke and a lot of food; if he would have to let those go, I think it would've made him very different. Will never know of course.

All of my grandparents lived well into their 90s. Mediterranean people, they loved good food and good wine (a bit of smoking too for some of them), fought/survived WW2, worked fairly rough jobs after, no exercise in the modern sense (eg cardio/strength training).

I have a sneaking suspicion our generation won't make it as far as them (and a few of my family members in the generation after have died in their 70s already). A part of me wants to say "chemicals and microplastics" but my grandpa worked in factories with some pretty nasty chemicals so that can't count for nothing (and they drove cars with leaded fuel too).

Maybe it is in no small part that they spent more time outdoors, and more time socializing? Or maybe it's all just randomness and none of that has any rhyme or reason.

Life stress, and overall more active.

Haha, yeah my grandfather, his brothers and his son sawed asbestos plates to make roofs from for many years. I have no clue how that works. But worked outside further, walked everything etc.

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