At some point the Egypt-Israel relationship could deteriorate and Israel could expand in that direction again.
Overall expansionist/conquest urges are back in with Russia, US under Trump and Israel. We will probably see China also get into the act.
I agree that Israel harbors Zionist destructive ambitions, but it doesn't really extend beyond "Greater Israel" which is the extent of Israel in Biblical times under King David and King Solomon. That does not extend in Egypt's direction, but it does include Lebanon, Syria and Jordan, so it's no coincidence that Israel has pushed in those directions (southern Lebanon, Golan Heights, and the West Bank).
Ryan McBeth presents his thoughtful analysis and debunking here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8HWJ2v0R6k
Settler ambitions are real though:
Settlement movement for Southern Lebanon: https://jewishcurrents.org/inside-the-movement-to-settle-sou.... Unclear if this will happen, depends if Israel actually does withdraw fully or not.
Resettlement movement for Gaza: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_Israeli_resettlement_.... This is likely to happen on Trumps watch in Northern Gaza. The General's Plan is clearing out Northern Gaza of Arabs as we speak.
Permanent annexation of Golan Heights, and more land taken in Syria for the "foreseeable future": https://www.cbc.ca/news/israel-occupy-buffer-zone-syria-neta...
As far as Lebanon, there is no mainstream support whatsoever to settle north of the Blue Line. The article you linked describes the idea as "far-right". I would invite you to talk to an Israeli and ask them what they think about Israel annexing Lebanon.
Gaza is entirely different. There was a centuries-old Jewish presence in Gaza until 1929, when the Jews were ethnically cleansed by an Arab pogrom. That same Jewish-owned land was resettled again in 1946, but the Egyptians ethnically cleansed Gaza again in 1948, and kept Gaza Judenrein until 1967. Israel decided to pull all Jews out of Gaza again in a bid for peace in 2005, but of course we all know how that turned out.
"In an interview for the documentary, In Israel: Ministers of Chaos, produced by European public service channel, Arte, [Israel's Finance Minister Bezalel] Smotrich claimed that Israel would expand “little by little” and eventually encompass all Palestinian territories as well as Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia."
https://javafilms.fr/film/israel-ministers-of-chaos/
This is a minister who is very powerful in the current Israeli government. To dismiss this is pretty weird. He doesn't hide his ambitions.
I am actually agreeing with him that this is likely to try to happen least for the foreseeable future. The trends point in this direction.
On the contrary, after Smotrich was merely perceived to lend support for expansionism, having spoken at a conference behind a graphic reminiscent of the Irgun's emblem depicting the entire Mandate for Palestine, it triggered a minor diplomatic incident, and the Israeli government immediately apologized to Jordan and clarified that Israel is committed to maintaining its peace agreement with Jordan.
But all of this is a smokescreen: Israel is a democracy desperately suing for peace with its neighbors, and at no point in history has initiated a war to expand its borders (or for any other purpose). There is no popular support for attacking or invading Israel's neighbors within the country, and there has never been such a policy in the country's history.
Up front, I am a fervent Zionist, with just a personal musing:
Accumulation of many discussions post 10/7 made me reevaluate how I think, and thus talk about, the greater Israeli political factors.
It's unconvincing when framed in terms of more rabid politicians with little popular support. At the end of the day, people correctly perceive that this isn't a temporary political situation, even when they don't know a Smotrich from a Smeagol.
If they do, it's unconvincing because these people are the government, and hold the levers of power to implement the vision regardless of what percentage of voters back it up specifically. To wit, Ben-Gvir proudly announcing new settlements in Golan Heights.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42546044
You can continue to say it is far flung or a conspiracy but apparently Israeli newspapers disagree with you. Honestly who am I to believe? Random anonymous commenter on hacker news or many articles in Israeli newspapers written by journalists? I’ll go with Israeli newspapers and real journalists.
Source: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2016-12-09/ty-article/.p...
The current Syria campaign is another counter example. Look at how they have systematically captured all water resources East of the Golan heights. Whoever is in charge is suing for expansion, not peace.
Source: https://syria.liveuamap.com/
Israel started the Six Day War claiming that the closing of straits was a grounds for war, this justifying their first strike, but they have had Gaza under siege and blockade for years, and don't consider it a grounds for war when they do it to others. Just one small point
'56, '67 and '82 were all unambiguously started by Israel.
It is also currently engaged in an effort, which it initiated on December 9th, to expand its illegally annexed territorial holdings in Syria as we speak.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Syria...
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-seeks-to-calm-waters-wi...
The article talks about his a speech he made in Paris in March of 2023 in which he calls Palestinians a made-up people. The podium he is speaking from features a map of Israel that includes Jordanian and Syrian territory. Israel is literally invading and annexing Syrian territory (which the media is playing down as 'buffer zones'
His view doesn't come close to representing the majority Israeli view; I'm fairly certain that in most surveys these days he gets literally 0 seats in the Israeli Knesset.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/05/30/israeli-views-...
In addition, that survey is from half a year ago. Surveys today show a majority of Israelis wanting a ceasefire-for-hostages deal.
When one is close to a hostage deal Netanyahu does something to torpedo it, like this recent statement of his:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-alarming...
So there probably won't be a hostage deal.
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/20/bezalel-smotrich-jordan-gre...
Talking about Israel, the 150th country in the world in size, in the same breath as China, Russia and the US - five of the largest countries in the world, is very weird.
It doesn’t matter what size Israel is. It has a super equipped army unlike any other country in the region and its population is growing while many countries around it are failed/fragile states (eg syria and Lebanon and sort of Egypt.). And if Jordan is forced to take a few million Palestinians from the West Bank it could become a failed/fragile state too.
I don't think Israel's leader believes in expanding, btw - he only wants one thing, his own political survival. Everything else is secondary.
> It doesn’t matter what size Israel is. It has a super equipped army unlike any other country in the region and its population is growing while many countries around it are failed/fragile states (eg syria and Lebanon and sort of Egypt.).
First, it does matter what size Israel is. If you are claiming that Israel is expansionist, but it makes up literally a tiny blip on the map, then I think that's pretty relevant.
Secondly, I don't think the fact that its population is growing is relevant to this discussion? How does that matter? If you're saying that Israel is more succesfull than most of its neighbors, I agree, but not sure why you think it's relevant, or a mark against Israel?
Netanyahu is a hard case. Here is what Aluf Benn wrote in Haaretz recently:
"Netanyahu wants to be remembered as the one who created Greater Israel, not just as a political schemer accused of corruption who abandoned 100 hostages in Gaza. That's why he'll try to cement Israeli control in northern Gaza. That's why he won't rush to withdraw from the newly occupied territory in the Golan. Under certain circumstances, he might even expand it."
Source: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-12-11/ty-article/.p...
> First, it does matter what size Israel is. If you are claiming that Israel is expansionist, but it makes up literally a tiny blip on the map, then I think that's pretty relevant.
Israel has robust population growth. This is a long-term project. Similar to the settlements in the West Bank that stated 50 years ago and may finally get most of the West Bank annexed to Israel in the next four year.
> Secondly, I don't think the fact that its population is growing is relevant to this discussion? How does that matter? If you're saying that Israel is more succesfull than most of its neighbors, I agree, but not sure why you think it's relevant, or a mark against Israel?
I think I was judgement free. You are inferring that it is mark against Israel I am talking about geopolitical realities.
If Israel's population is growing while both Syria and Lebanon are stagnant or shrinking and they are also failed/fragile states, it will be easy to expand into them and sustain that expansion.
Maybe. Haaretz is on the Israeli left, and extremely critical of Netanyahu. That doesn't necessarily mean this is wrong - but it's like citing Fox's critique of Biden's motivations, or MSNBC's critique of Trump's motivations, as authoritative fact.
Even if what he's writing is true - this is probably a "new" motivation and not some underlying philosophy, IMO (unlike, say, Smotrich). Netanyahu has been in power for many years, and the most common criticism is that he doesn't actually do enough - he straddles the fence, refusing to commit to either (say) destroying Hamas or working with the PA - preferring to do as little as possible and play all angles, to stay in power. In our current situation you see a similar thing play out - he's refused to offer a "day after" plan for Gaza for a long time, and is certainly not publicly agreeing with the extremists who want to resettle Gaza - but also still working with them. Fence sitting, in other words.
That's why I believe he is more likely motivated by "staying in power" without actually having any underlying desire to make "greater Israel".
(Oh and I just now actually looked at the article, and it seems to support what I'm saying - that this is new behavior for Netanyahu, who was always considered risk-averse. I hope the article is wrong and Netanyahu is just fence-sitting as usual, for everyone's sake.)
> Israel has robust population growth. This is a long-term project. Similar to the settlements in the West Bank that stated 50 years ago and may finally get most of the West Bank annexed to Israel in the next four year.
I don't think that will happen, because most Israelis do not want to actually rule a people that hates them in an actual apartheid situation.
I sincerely hope I'm right. Netanyahu is certainly taking steps towards dictatorship, so who knows? Israel's democracy is relatively strong and robust, and I don't think the populace will let democracy fall, but again, who knows?
> I think I was judgement free. You are inferring that it is mark against Israel I am talking about geopolitical realities.
> If Israel's population is growing while both Syria and Lebanon are stagnant or shrinking and they are also failed/fragile states, it will be easy to expand into them and sustain that expansion.
Fair enough, I wasn't sure you were implying something negative. Still, actually expanding into Syria et all is completely outside the bounds of any normal discourse in Israel. I doubt you'd get even 5% of Israelis wanting to expand the borders significantly for growth reasons, only solidify borders for security reasons.
We can check on these prediction in a year or so. Because we cannot prove anything about the future now.
I think we understand fully where we are each coming from.
I don't think a two-state solution is likely, definitely not anytime soon. My one big hope is that, whether because of Trump's pressure or not, we manage to get a combined ceasefire + hostage deal + Saudi Arabia normalization + genuine path to a two-state solution (which the Saudis have said is a precondition for normalization).
Do I think it's likely? Not very. I don't think annexation of the West Bank is likely either. But as you said, who knows?
1. That's a very misleading talking point. Yes, technically growing from 0.09% of the middle east to 0.1% of the ME would be considering growth, but definitely not the kind of growth that would categorize any country as expansionist to any normal observer.
2. It's not even true! Israel captured and held the Sinai peninsula, which is 4 times the size of Israel IIRC, and then gave it back in exchange for peace. So the "expansionist" country that is so anti-peace, according to some people, and that might have designs on invading Egypt next, actually gave back territory that is 4 times the size of its own territories, for peace, with Egypt.