Ask HN: Why LLM are believed to reach us to AGI?

I am not talking about intution or random cryptic tweets?. I am not an expert and seem to be ignorant of why LLMS are believed to reach us to AGI.

I know LLMS are quiet powerful but AGI is a seperate beast imo and apparently people are claiming on twitter( including experts) that we will reach AGI in 3 years (or less).

I am a layman and this seems like the world is going to change dramtically if that is true and I want to be prepared for the change.

However, I am skeptical of all the claims particularly that we are near AGI in 3 years.So I need to know why experts think AGI is near