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> Normal people do not try to plot the course of their upcoming flights

I am in India. Everyone is very aware of the Air India flights that overfly Russia, Iran, et cetera and those—mostly foreign airlines— who do not.

I consider myself a fairly normal person. On a recent flight from Istanbul to Taipei, I checked the flight path to make sure it wasn't flying over any "suspect" countries.

The airline would need to be deliberately avoiding them: the great-arc circle between those two passes directly over Grozny. Smart call to double-check that.

Normal people also do not keep backups of their important data.