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xmas2025

If the efficient market hypothesis is roughly correct, then publishing your secret idea immediately drops its value to roughly zero because everyone will adopt it.

If your strategy produces future gains above its risk-adjusted benchmark (i.e., real trading, not back-testing), then use the strategy and keep quiet. If you want others to benefit too, then just give away your gains to charity.

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There's an inherent ubiquitous nature to the strategy. Kinda like the golden ratio or the elliott wave theory. They've been published and are ubiquitous but they still occur in charts.

But I understand that once the algos know about the strategy, it becomes targeted to oblivion. So maybe I need to muster out the strength and use it without publishing its source.

It's also good to be skeptical about the backtesting itself, there are lots of ways for backtesting to overestimate gains and then you'd lose real money. Don't bet the farm (yet!)

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/All-That-Glitters-Is-N...

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