Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashes in Kazakhstan

Unfortunately, I would bet on this being a shoot down. Why:

- Footage of the plane going down shows behavior consistent with destroyed or severely damaged control surfaces.

- This is backed up by the available flight data. The crew looks like they fought oscillations and kept the plane flying for more than an hour.

- The flights primary destination was under UAV attack (allegedly), meaning anti-air was likely active.

- Russians (and their allies) have a poor track record when it comes to accidentally or intentionally shooting down civilian airliners.

- And most damning, post-crash footage of the vertical stab and fuselage (both outside and INSIDE!) show puncture holes consistent with AA shrapnel.

The crew fought, and they were pretty close to putting the thing down, but when your flight surfaces are gone and you only have thrust (and who knows what state they were in), your chances are slim. Incredible that dozens survived. I wish that the families and victims will find peace and closure, however unlikely this will be.