US housing market is mirroring 2008 bubble–real estate analyst | Hacker News Reader

US housing market is mirroring 2008 bubble–real estate analyst

newsweek.com

32 pointsmadihaa30 comments

First of all, if you look at the chart at the end of the article, you can see that the level of inventory is nowhere near 2008 levels and is close to levels that have occurred many times before. That aside, why are we acting like spec home inventory caused the financial crisis and not the fact that subprime debt was issued to people who never stood a chance of paying their mortgages?

Why does the article say "US" when it goes on to say that there is a surplus in 5 states? Does housing in Texas and Florida have some impact on Oregon or California or Maine?

Because economic contagion starts from the banks, not the home builders. Home prices in TX will eventually have an impact on mortgage bonds issued by a New York bank.

Cute, now take a look at Canada. We are way way way past the bubble stage but it just won't pop because that's the only thing left of value here...

good news: prices have plunged 50% . home are more affordable now!

bad news: after prices went up 10x...

Canada's population is distributed VERY differently than in the US. More than half the country lives in a narrow belt running from Quebec to Windsor, Ontario, barely 100 miles from the US border. In the US, there are commercial/business hubs in many places where people can settle, from NY, Boston, Chicago, Atlanta and Texas. And I haven't even mentioned the west coast!

Even in this article, the author says the growth in home builds have accrued to a handful of states in the South of the US. Supply elsewhere is still constrained, and costs are still high.

Haven't they made this prediction every year since 2010 or so? Not exactly useful in terms of actionable advice. Odds are you will be sitting on the sidelines as prices keep going up, or sell too soon. Even Covid and other major events failed to put much of a dent in long-term prices.

No, by reading the article we see that it is the opposite of what has been happening since 2010 that is being reported. There is a surplus of homes now, which is a complete reverse of the last ten year trend.

> According to Gerli, the explosion of inventory in certain markets of the country is "quite the rebound from the shortage experienced from 2012-22."

but it's the same sort of prediction. the reason is different this time, but the prediction is the same.

> "Texas, Florida, Arizona, Tennessee and Georgia are the most impacted states by the run-up in builder inventory," Gerli continued.

Definitely not the case in the markets I'm familiar with (NY, VA, and OR). I expect inventory to be tight again next year because I see no home construction or if there is construction it's way out in the sticks. I'm betting on a tight market - I have a move-in ready empty house that I'll be putting up for sale in the spring. I'm hopeful that waiting several months will net me $30k+.

i am looking for housing right now and it's very hard. not in your market. but you still represent the sellers with this comment, gloating about getting a higher profit. while the rest of us struggle to find housing. i have a deep disdain for people like that. i don't care about the market dynamics, that will just make me dislike you even more.

i know a handful of people with empty houses in san francisco.

they’re older, bought multiple properties when it was affordable to buy multiple properties.

i’m drowning in rent, but their houses sit empty as they’re concerned renting the houses would make them more used and the values would go down.

i feel you. we’re screwed, but i’m glad people can profit off misery, especially when an extra 30k can be made according to the purest definition of a war of attrition.

Oh, I know. I looked for houses for years in various markets and was priced out of a couple (e.g. Asheville, NC). I ended up paying $80k over asking for a meh rundown house. The housing shortage and high prices are not the fault of sellers. If you were in my shoes, you'd hold onto the house too.

no, i don't think i would. it sounds like we're different people.

> The housing shortage and high prices are not the fault of sellers.

if you are holding onto unused housing without listing it on the market then you are most certainly contributing to the problem.

We bought houses with money that we earned through hard work. Those were investments, no different than the stock market. And we'll never sell them, aka our prerogative.

logically correct but that don't make it right. it's also my prerogative to criticize you on the internet

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=mBrYDoe6HMk

> no, i don't think i would. it sounds like we're different people.

What's the difference between holding onto an empty house and holding onto extra cash or investments/assets? Don't they both represent potential utility?

I would think that would mean that you also don't hold any non-discretionary assets (including savings/retirement accounts) because you want those resources to be available to others?

i can't sleep inside my extra cash or investments. shelter is a basic human need.

> I would think that would mean that you also don't hold any non-discretionary assets (including savings/retirement accounts) because you want those resources to be available to others?

why would this ever make sense based on what i said? this is a ridiculous conclusion, trying to make it seem like something that i never said. not to mention is just bad logic.

> i can't sleep inside my extra cash or investments

Cash buys housing.

And housing is an investment.

They are interchangeable.

i guess since you have it figured out, will you please use your power to turn my cash into housing? i have cash and i need housing but it's been a struggle to find. sounds like you have a secret that could help me? thank you in advance!

I didn't say I had it figured out.

Someone is trying to make the most of what they have, just like you.

Article calls that out specifically

> On the other hand, the housing shortage is still ongoing in the Northeast and Midwest, "areas the builders ignore," Gerli said. "You can see active listings in the Northeast/Midwest on re-sale market are still in a big deficit to pre-pandemic."

It seems to me that Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia (less familiar with Arizona) are all actively trying to chase out anyone that doesn't fall in line with their ultra-right wing vision of an ideal society. So it's not surprising to me that they have a housing surplus.

This is even before anyone realizing what “AGI” really means and what it will do to people’s jobs in the future.

Once the mass layoffs happen, those who have purchased mortgages at high rates will be unable to pay it off, especially if they have over-leveraged on very expensive houses.

Either way, with the over-supply of houses and their prices still skyrocketing regardless, I can see this so-called “AGI” contributing to the bubble and ultimately being partly responsible into causing another crash.

There is no point in pretending about it, and “AGI” is all about mass job displacement for no replacement or alternative.

What kind of Xmas present is that?

From what I have seen and experienced, we don’t need AGI, we just need good salesmen to sell high level management into accepting subpar results to cause mass layoff in the short term in name or cutting costs. Eventually, when the bill comes due, most of these management had been promoted/hired to some far away places where the consequences will only go further downward.

I dunno the agi people all come across like the bitcoin true believers. But somehow Bitcoin survived and now seems to make lots of money for some people in spite of itself. I guess agi will be the same if only it got way more money injected into it by people who want their money back than bitcoin.

What any crypto currency makes successfull is trust of the people and bitcoin is just the most prominent one, that is its actual value. In comparison, AI has to deliver verifiable results. It cant rely only on marketing speech to gain trust.

Womp womp AI is takin our jerbs

Its not coming anytime soon im so sick of people who dont know anything about anything making baseless doomsday predictions like this. So far the only thing ive seen AI be productive at is shitty art and helping college students cheat on essays.

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