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Comment by throwawaygmbno | Hacker News Reader

You're selectively moving groups around with your statistics to try and use simple numbers to make it seem like you're always right. 20% of every single person in the US being sort of into Nazis has very little to do with the vast majority of people under 40 (military age) finding it ok with Brian getting shot. The first group includes people who are getting government funded healthcare on top of not having spent most of their lives dealing with insurance companies run by MBAs

Edit: Just noticed statistical manipulation is your job and you're maybe in a similar tax bracket

>> Trade private equity. Former aerospace investment banker, and before that, algorithmic equity derivatives trader. FinTech + Space + B2C angel & seed investor. Jackson Hole local; frequently in New York and the Bay Area.

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> 20% of every single person in the US being sort of into Nazis has very little to do with

I’m saying 20% of Americans can be found who believe almost anything. 20% of Americans supporting something is basically background.

> selectively moving groups around with your statistics to try and use simple numbers to make it seem like you're always right

I’m slicing the data to present a number bigger than 17%. I’m trying to find a group in which a majority support Mangione who aren’t on the far fringes of society. If you’re upset about the slicing and dicing you’re confirming my point.

> the vast majority of people under 40 (military age) finding it ok with Brian getting shot

Where do you see this?

18 to 29 is the most favourable bloc for Mangione, and there favourability is 39%. Not a majority let alone a vast majority. And that’s being generous by combining in somewhat favourable.

> I’m saying 20% of Americans can be found who believe almost anything. 20% of Americans supporting something is basically background.

The Lizardman's Constant is lower than 20%, more like 4% for the survey result that gave rise to the name — and also, despite the name, not constant: https://gwern.net/note/lizardman

Sadly, this also means that your chosen example, instead of illustrating your claim, actually has something to say about the state of the American Overton Window when it was taken.

> The Lizardman's Constant is lower than 20%, more like 4%

Lizardman’s Constant is, per Gwern, “‘jokester’ or ‘mischevious responders’.” They’re being disingenuous; think: “deez balls” voters.

I don’t think the 17% of respondents who think favourably of Mangione are trolling. I don’t think the 10% flat earthers (or, including those who are “unsure” about the Earth’s roundness, 19%) are bullshitting [1].

There is simply about a fifth of the population—and it’s a moving fifth, there isn’t a permanently-braindead section—that tends to respond one way in just about any survey about fringe or stupid theories. So 17% supporting Mangione (while making it seem like it’s everyone online) isn’t particularly surprising. (Even if a good fraction of them are responding provocatively for fun.)

[1] https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/conspiracy-vs-science-sur...

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