Chollet's shift in tone is interesting. As recently as 2022, he expressed strong skepticism about LLMs solving ARC-AGI within a decade. Now, he seems to suggest that significant progress on the challenge is possible within the next 1-2 years.

Of course, he strives to maintain a consistent public persona, but this shift strongly implies that o3's performance has significantly altered his views.

This field, much like economics, is full of experts who can convincingly explain why there were wrong :)

PS: ARC-AGI is a very well-though-out/interesting/useful test.