A tactical nuclear strike can lead to non-MAD Nash equilibrium pro striker | Hacker News Reader

A tactical nuclear strike can lead to non-MAD Nash equilibrium pro striker

papers.ssrn.com

This is an interesting paper, but I’m surprised by the number of typos I found on first reading. It brings the seriousness of the paper into question.

"In this paper, I argue using a simple game theory model that a first strike with tactical nuclear weapons will, under certain conditions, lead a non-MAD Nash equilibrium with an one-and-off gain for the party enabling the first strike. This should be taken as a serious warning against any escalation between nuclear powers."

...or, this should be taken as a serious opportunity by narcissistic ding dongs, like Putin or Kim Jung Un, to more librally consider gambling with the future of humanity if it means there's even a slim chance that their evil asses can remain alive, fat and happy while the rest of the world suffers. Nice advertisement. Is the author vying for a seat at the right hand of the devil?

100% certain that Kim Jung Un, and to a large extent Iran, don't understand, care about, respect, or have any interest in "Nash equilibrium" or game theory. nor are they worried about their countrymen, their own survival (they are gods, you see) it's a delusional echo chamber. Putin is probably much more rational, and also much more dangerous, but the same considerations apply. if he needed justification (spoiler: he doesn't), it would be done, and not with a paper like this.

> Is the author vying for a seat at the right hand of the devil?

certainly not, that's extremely uncharitable. the paper could be better understood as a warning for the rest of us not to rely on a simple theory of MAD to assume "safety" when it comes to things like tactical nukes and escalation. don't blame the messenger for the way the math works out. however, i also think the implicit assumption of rational (vs. ego based) decision making is flawed anyway.

    The main point drawn on the findings of this paper is that the current cycle of escalation, globally, between nuclear powers simply
    needs to be stopped. The risks of it spiraling out of control, and/or creating a world where nuclear weapons would be used regularly
    in wars, lowering the threshold of the world drifting into a nuclear holocaust considerably, are just too great. The world needs,
    and majority of its populace wants, peace now more than ever.

    I hope modern leaders heed their voice and the warning presented in this paper.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com