But if you want to predict the future utility of these models you want to look at their current intelligence, compare that to humans and try to figure out roughly what skills they lack and which of those are likely to get fixed.

For example, a team of humans are extremely reliable, much more reliable than one human, but a team of AI's isn't mean reliable than one AI since an AI is already an ensemble model. That means even if an AI could replace a person, it probably can't replace a team for a long time, meaning you still need the other team members there, meaning the AI didn't really replace a human it just became a tool for huamns to use.