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Comment by timenotwasted | Hacker News Reader

The absolutist type comments are such a wild take given how often they are so wrong.

Totally... simple increases in 20% efficiency will already significant destroy demand for coders. This forum however will be resistant to admit such economic phenomenon.

Look at video bay editing after the advent of Final Cut. Significant drop in the specialized requirement as a professional field, even while content volume went up dramatically.

Computing has been transforming countless jobs before it got to Final Cut. On one hand, programming is not the hardest job out there. On the other, it takes months to fully onboard a human developer - a person that already has years of relevant education and work experience. There are desk jobs that onboard new hires in days instead. Let’s see when they’re displaced by AI first.

Don't know if you noticed but thats already happening. Mass layoffs in customer service etc have already happened over the last 2 years

So, how does it work out? Are the customers happy? Are the bosses at my work going to be equally happy with my AI replacement?

That's until AI has improved enough that it can automatically navigate the menus to get me a human operator to talk to.

I could be misreading this, but as far as I can tell, there are more video and film editors today (29,240) than there were film editors in 1997 (9,320). Seems like an example of improved productivity shifting the skills required but ultimately driving greater demand for the profession as a whole. Salaries don't seem to have been hurt either, median wage was $35,214 in '97 and $66,600 today, right in line with inflation.

https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes274032.htm

https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm

This is the type of “I looked it up but know shit about the industry”.

Video demand exploded and professional editors collapsed in ratio.

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