I think the consensus is that the general purpose transformer-based pertaining models like gpt4 are roughly as good as they’ll be. o1 seems like it will be slightly better in general. So I think it’s fair to say the capability is not there, and even if it was the reliability is not going to be there either, in this generation of models.

I wrote more about the implications of this elsewhere: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42465598