Comment by navaed01 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by navaed01 | Hacker News Reader

This is a very neat exercise but I don’t think it’s going to create change. These models already exist and I’ve never met anyone who said their reason for not investing in solar is because they felt the accuracy of existing models is not good enough. I say this as someone who lives on a part of the world where a large % of the inhabitants could have solar but do not - and I find it sad, frustrating and puzzling.

Biggest blockers for solar are (total conjecture) : 1- Inertia - flat out. 2- Long-term ROI is not totally clear - How long till I need to replace, roof damage, ability to hold up in storm. 3- Cost - You need to invest sig $ to see your electric bill decrease meaningfully. Gov subsidies are nowhere near where they should be.

I am praying for a major breakthrough in cell efficiency to make it a no brainer. Does anyone have any insight on that?

I think it has to do with the assurance of the warranty. The ROI is loooong; solar contractors can go out of business leaving the parts on the roof lacking in the promised energy savings. Who wants to litigate against a bankrupt company?

Seems like qcells are on the road to a ~28% solution with silicon-perovskite tandem cells. When I researched for my own home install, it seems most of the cost is actually install labor, markup, electricians rates for hookup, etc. The plain BOM is close to $1-1.50 per watt for cells plus inverters and mounting hardware, but people still charge $3+ for systems.

This chart on the progress of PV cell efficiencies always blows me away: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaics#/media/File:NREL...

Do you get the depreciated value added on to the house price if you sell? This was always a big problem for solar hot water systems. If the payback period is seven years but the average house turnover is five years, then there is little incentive.

Gov subsidies are the government giving the tax money of poor people who cannot afford houses to rich people who have houses. Highly regressive. Your PV system should stand on its own merits without holding out your hand to other taxpayers to fund you.

I have low confidence in the whole industry. High prices, holes in my roof, and many reports of systems being installed poorly with warranties not being honored.

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