Pricing software adds billions to rental costs, White House says
axios.com
axios.com
In a healthy market, where supply can increase to meet demand, better information decreases prices. As it stands, with most states having regulations that severely limit housing supply, prices will keep increasing until birthrates drop or the rate of people moving out increases.
The politicians that pass those policies are to blame, and any pricing information is just the messenger.
This is not necessarily true. Market failure can occur due to information which is provided asymmetrically or which facilitates collusion.
This software is very clearly price-fixing, but in a world with more housing it should be next to impossible to do that effectively.
You're not wrong about it being a housing supply issue, but it's not because we don't have enough - it's because this software-facilitated rental price fixing and collusion scheme allowed a few individual property management companies to take over 80% of a market, raising prices so far above valuation that they could warehouse more than 20% of those rentals while still meeting their repayment obligations, artificially pushing people into houses, which private equity had also been investing into. It was the biggest scam of the century.
Supply doesn't imply mere existence, otherwise someone could just claim all the gold in the sun was theirs. In this case, the demand was for "affordable housing", and the supply was artificially constrained so that mortgages became more affordable than rent.
And who are the customers of mortgages? Largely wealthy pensioners. Blame them, not the feds (for housing, at least... it's not a federal power). Hell, blame the local homeowners that voted to zone out new construction, MFDs, manufactured housing, or anything that might allow any transient or poverty associated person into their schools and communities.
Is this a defense of cartels?
"We're not fixing prices, we're merely sharing information"
Depends. If the information provider is also a middle man that profits from manipulating the information, then that can unbalance the market.
E.g: if renters pay through realpage, then the incentive for realpage is to increase the prices to collect more fees.
The Behind the Bastards podcast on this topic is quite informative; see: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/105-behind-the-bastards-29236... .
DOJ sues realpage for algorithmic pricing scheme that harms renters
At the same time, It's worth digging deeper and asking questions as to why/how we are repeating mistakes.
By that, I mean, We have seen historically, 'oopsies' and/or 'problematic patterns' around 'automated trading' and feedback loops that can result.
TBH we are likely seeing similar impact in used car market.
Possibly all done by people who couldn't hack it in algorithimic automated trading...
To hapless tenants, it is a negative. They're the _victims_ of the algorithm, not the users.
People are not making mistakes, it’s a conscious effort to increase profit as much as possible. The only mistakes is allowing this to exist and not regulating it out of existence.
perfect competition in open market is supposed to push all profits to zero, maximizing value for consumers
Landlords Are Using AI to Raise Rents
If they'd noticed (& done something about it) a few years ago, then Joe might not be facing eviction now.
This is just not true. Talking point being pushed by some group, I’m guessing those lobbying for subsidized housing programs.
There’s an “affordability crisis” for ultra desirable locations, but across most of America, there’s plenty of underwhelming but functional housing to be had.
Not many tech positions available in Huntington, WV.
e: from your link - “Conversely, demand for workforce housing assets—which constitute about 37% of New Orleans’ apartment inventory—remains weak, indicating financial strain among lower-income households in the area.
Construction Trends
Construction has slowed significantly in the New Orleans multifamily market in recent quarters. The current pipeline of 752 units under construction represents just 1.1% of the existing rental housing stock, starkly contrasting with the national average of 4.0%. This limited construction is evident in the trailing 12-month total of new deliveries, which amounted to a modest 82 units”
CBRE's headline: Slight Apartment Oversupply Expected in 2024 (oversupply means vacancy drops below the industry target of ~93%)
>>The biggest wave of new apartment supply in decades will temper rent growth and improve affordability for renters in 2024. With delivery of 440,000 new units expected in 2024 and more than 900,000 currently under construction, the overall vacancy rate is expected to rise and rent growth to decelerate.
https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-ou...
https://simonandersonteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/202...
For larger professionally (~50+ unit) managed facilities, which is what those reports track and is also what i do for a living, we can turn over very quickly and push much tighter, 98% when possible. 93% occupancy on a typical 200 unit property is 14 units vacant for an entire month, which is unacceptable if there is pent up demand.
We had some finds that lived in some odd the downtown units and their occupancy rate was quite low 70-80% because they were charging way above what people were willing to pay but they never adjusted. There are other factors at play that might be affecting average fill rate. Different plays seem to optimize for different rates.
For overall market, i.e. happy compromise between landlord and renter, 93 is close to optimal. Landlords really don’t want to go below 90 and typically will start to drop rents to maintain occupancy. If the market pushes past 96, developers can deliver new units pretty quickly. Forecasting- no one can predict the future but everyone thinks they can, so lots of crazy ideas there. There’s also a function of what are people willing/expecting to pay. So if people generally are unwilling to pay above $1700/mo, maybe Landlord just stuffs the property to 99% at the local maximum rent. We have found that to be a working strategy, rather than squeezing every last nickel out of renters, just find the comfortable breakpoint and fill up the building.
There’s all these technical details, but then behind each signed lease is a person making a complex personal and emotional decision that changes their lives for the next 12 months minimum.
Fun!
It's the truth. The US is near the all-time high record high number of housing units per capita. We'll likely exceed it some time within the next 2 years.
There is absolutely no housing crisis of any kind. There is a _density_ crisis, that is forcing people into unaffordable locations.
Housing per family (household) is also near the all-time high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=15tRv
Calling it a crisis is disingenuous at best. Specifically calling a “affordability crisis” instead of “availability crisis” is telling. People being unwilling to live with a roommate(s) is the biggest driver here. Rent controls are also a significant factor driving market imbalances. Yes of course growing areas need more housing, but it’s not a crisis.
And that would be a reasonable thing to say if housing was a national issue, but it's not. It's always been a local and regional issue.
The United States does not benefit by moving people into decrepit houses in the Midwest. People should live where there are jobs and opportunities - they should CHOOSE where they live.
The individual regions of the United States with extreme housing prices are NOT near record housing per capita levels. They've dramatically underbuilt compared to how they've grown.
> There is absolutely no housing crisis of any kind. There is a _density_ crisis, that is forcing people into unaffordable locations.
Any kind of regional issue is a "density crisis" by this logic. Shortage of plumbers? "Density crisis." Hurricane hit the town and now a lot of people need to be rescued? "Density crisis." Sewer line burst and now it smells? "Density crisis."
This is a shortage of housing where people need it. If your entire point rests on you pretending "housing shortage" means something else, well... that's not very convincing.
So you want Midwest to be a toxic dumping ground? Why do you hate America?
> Any kind of regional issue is a "density crisis" by this logic.
No. The density crisis happens when cities _increase_ the density. And it can NOT be solved.
No way, no how. There is not a SINGLE city in Europe, Japan, or the US that managed to lower the housing sale prices by increasing density. Not one.
> This is a shortage of housing where people need it.
No. There's a crisis of density that forces people to move where they might not want to go. Most people do not _want_ to live in dense slums, but they can't afford _not_ to.
Kindly take a look at the city of Berkeley. This statement is just wrong.
Housing is a necessity. Demand for which is inelastic. The price will be paid regardless, via rent or purchase. And purchase is out of reach or unmanageable for many. Leaving rent as their only option.
Also, in no particular order and not limited to:
- Single or multi-year contracts.
- Minimum space requirements for family size
- Local social ties, extended family and friends
- Dependency or ties to local services, groups, business
- “Keeping up with Joneses”
- Moving is a PITA
- Comfort, familiarity, nostalgia
- Work requirements and industry connections
If you have another appropriate or even better comparison to offer, please do.
It’s not rapidly responsive like subscribers of netflix, but it’s fairly elastic over the long term.
>> If tenants are still moving inspite of the high prices, then the price is probably right.
it’d probably be best to focus on housing’s relative inelasticity as compared to other goods where such a claim might actually be quite true.
If there are enough units, there’s no need for extra taxation on vacant units as it becomes a self-correcting problem (or someone pays a whack of property tax while consuming less than the proportional services, meaning they’re subsidizing others).
At some number of vacant houses the algorithm changes
Yes, yes, supply-and-demand, market, blah blah blah.
It's the simple reality: new construction that increases housing density in cities does NOT lead to lower rental costs. The best results are one-time single-digit percentage decreases in rents immediately near the new construction.