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Comment by mherrmann | Hacker News Reader

Official inflation numbers are extremely low. How does that square with what you just said?

I think that you may have seen month-over-month inflation in Argentina, which is 2.4% for November (the lowest in a couple of years). That may seem low, but that's just the change in prices from one month to the next. In USA, the month-over-month inflation is around 0.3%, while yearly inflation is 2.7%. In Argentina, yearly inflation is 166% right now (and it was worse before!), but if they kept 2.4% month-over-month for a year, they'd have 33% yearly inflation - that's still not "extremely low" (e.g. the recent inflation surge in the US only peaked at 9.1% yearly), but it would be the lowest for Argentina since 2018.

https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi

https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mo...

i also hear official inflation numbers in the US are 'low' right now too, yet that doesn't mean prices are down or that things are affordable to the common person. my lived reality talking to actual citizens tells me a lot of folks are struggling. if anything, applying that same experience to argentina is my mistake. i guess.

Low inflation doesn't mean that prices will fall. That would be deflation, and deflation is bad for the economy.

I guess we should ignore statistics and focus on anecdotes when making economic decisions.

They are not extremely low, they are just lower than they have been. Annualized inflation is still ~160% down from a high of ~300%. Monthly inflation numbers are like what the US sees in a year.

Annualized is around 118%, down from a high of 211%. Last month to month inflation rate was 2.4%, down from 25% on last December. 2.4% annualized is around ~30%, which would give you the following series:

2023 => 211%

2024 => ~120%

2025 (if inflation keeps the same value) => 30%

However, if the government lowers the crawling peg they are instituting, and keep on not printing money, it's possible the inflation rate for 2025 is even lower.

So: Currently not remotely close to "extremely low" as in the comment I replied to.

And it isn't following a nice series like you have, the peak was in April 2024. It's improving! It's not "extremely low", or resolved yet. As I said in another comment, I personally think the directionality of Milei's changes is great. But it is currently still very tough times.

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