The Annoying Thing About Self-Driving Cars: They Obey the Speed Limit
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The idea that we allow almost anyone 16 or older to control several thousand pounds of metal that can travel at high speeds really is quite absurd when you think about it. There are more than 30,000 deaths every year due to car accidents, and hundreds of thousands more injuries.
It's amazing how screwed up our society's priorities are. That's ten 9/11's worth of deaths every year from car accidents. By the time the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have ended, we'll have spent around $4 trillion on them altogether[0]. If even 1/100th of that had been redirected to research on self-driving car technology, we might have already saved tens of thousands of lives.
0: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/29/us-usa-war-idUSTRE...
Consider it rationally. Driving is costly, but it engenders an entire host of benefits & pleasures I don't think you're even considering.
I'm not saying I'm happy driving is dangerous, but saying "Driving is dangerous, and yet we do it? WTF?" is ridiculous.
I am considering it entirely rationally. I believe that we should be investing more money into research that could save 30,000 lives every year. Never did I suggest in my initial post that human driving should be banned before self-driving cars are capable of replacing humans in this capacity. If done correctly, self-driving cars will have all the benefits of current automobiles, and then some.
As for the pleasures of driving - that's what a whole lot of people said about cigarettes, but look where we are now. And don't be silly - no one's personal "pleasures" override the safety of other people's lives.
With like $10,000,000 dollars for drugs and some infrastructure we could save FAR MORE than 30,000 people every year in impoverished countries.
And with not doing stuff like the BS Iraq embargo, we could save around 500,000 lives.
Just a quick comparison...
what is this host of pleasures? I get that some people enjoy driving. I loved it when I was a teenager, now I hate it. Most of my driving is done in traffic and I'd much rather read a book or take a nap insted of micromanaging my 20km/hr commute.
Not only would autonomous cars give me back my 1.5hrs/day that is dead time... but the roads would be incredibly more safe.
And for people who like to drive... how about a racetrack?
That's not to say that you can't enjoy driving responsibly. But there's so much unnecessary danger and tedium involved that it seems a no-brainer to move to a computer controlled future.
But being able to skip past long queues of stopped or slowly moving traffic, safely and efficiently almost as if the traffic didn't exist, feels really good.
2000kg passenger cars travelling at 60-100km/hr are another story altogether. My guess is that there would be a tiny fraction (<1%) of all road fatalities caused by purely mechanical failure. That leaves 99% (stats pulled from my ass) caused, or largely contributed to, by human error. For a large class of these errors a computer would never cause the problem or safely navigate around it.
Saying "I want to keep driving 'cos its fun!!" isn't really good enough in that context.
But even if it was, it seems to me that you're assuming a boundary where none exists. There is no fixed point in the road where it's suddenly urban vs suburban vs rural; the most marked points are entry and exit to motorways, but they have lower per-mile risks already.
I'd be the first guy to say that 2000+kg cars ought to be move more safely and predictably; I'm a committed biker, and that would be safer for me too. But in the chaos of UK traffic, I don't really see how it's workable without converting everything - absolutely everything, pretty much overnight - to automated vehicles.
I mean the streets have one lane most of the time, but occasionally two or more lanes between certain traffic lights, junctions are not regular, roadworks at some point in your journey are statistically almost certain, pedestrians are always wandering out into the road, wobbly cyclists, etc. The only way I can see an automated vehicle working in that environment is one that moves unacceptably slowly to mitigate the risk of tort suits against the manufacturer; or an entirely separate road network, strictly for automated vehicles.
Realistically speaking though truly autonomous driving in tricky (even for humans) conditions like you describe is probably a long way off, although within our lifetimes I would think. The other option is a total rethink of the city/suburb nightmare that we now live in. But that's a debate for another time :)
Except we won't. Because flying cars is called "aviation" and aviation brings new dimensions of "hard" in addition to a third spatial dimension. And truly self driving cars that require no dynamic input from humans at any time is something we'll get asymptotically closer to, but will never quite achieve except in relatively specialized cases.
This is what I believe. I can't prove it, but it is what my gut feeling tells me.
And why would you want to? Of course, for typical highways it is obvious that it would probably be both faster and safer to have some sort of mandatory cooperative autonomous mode, but even that will be hard to achieve. I've met some of the people who work on developing and standardizing certain inter-car protocols to solve these types of problems. Most of the people I've met are neither brilliant nor capable. For the most part they illustrate to me a) how hard the problem is at scale (ie. get all manufacturers onboard) b) there will be a lot of idiots involved in this which means it'll take an awful lot of time to even come up with even baseline systems for proper crash-avoidance -- nevermind the real-time dynamic systems for controlling masses of fast-moving vehicles.
I'm skeptical about totally autonomous cars, but I think freeway driving will be increasingly automated. Thrun has said that he's let his car drive him from the bay area to Reno several times. I assume he's exaggerating a bit, but probably not by much. It's a solvable problem for good road conditions.
There is no way a mass market for personal air vehicles can happen if we need traditional pilot's licences. Following the eventual success of driverless cars, one can imagine that all-weather PAVs will not require a license because we will just be passengers.
See: http://www.boeing.com/news/frontiers/archive/2004/july/ts_sf...
Admitting that driverless cars cannot be truely perfected, does not preclude mass adoption - because they merely need to be safer and cheaper to operate than the current human-only traffic situation. I think we are less than a decade away from that tipping point. Does anyone else agree?
And large populations of autonomous cars in obviously something we have zero experience with so we can't really know if there will be unexpected dominant factors.
The flying cars argument is silly. Yes it was a fanciful 1950s dream that never made it to reality... however autonomous flight is real.. a good portion of commercial air flight is done under autopilot (including landings).
We never even got close to flying car tech... but saying that truly self driving cars that require no dynamic input from humans at any time is something we'll get asymptotically closer to, but will never quite achieve is silly, we're already very close to this reality. I'd be very surprised if in 10 years we don't have a completely computer controlled car.
(The reason the flying car won't be a reality is that all of those (auto-piloted) air planes do in fact have a crew of 1-3 highly qualified professionals -- and the flying cars would be piloted by the sort of people who can't figure out roundabouts. Also, the density of planes is extremely low compared to what would be the situation if flying cars were commonplace).
Also, planes have maintainance regimes that are vastly different from your car. I bet that you did not go through a checklist when you got into your car this morning, nor when you parked it. You probably do not have the faintest idea how the fluids are doing. You probably don't even know if all the external lights work. It is highly unlikely that you even performed the most rudimentary tests of all before getting into your car: walking around it and kicking the tyres. There was no qualified and certified mechanic (for your specific model) to go over your car prior to setting off.
The fact is that we're very quickly edging towards fully computer controlled cars. You have to have a truly limited imagination to think we will never get there.
The argument about airplane maintenance also doesn't hold water. Result of a malfunctioning plane: plunge 30,000ft and hundreds dead. Result of a malfunctioning car: coast to a gentle stop. See any difference?
You have to have a truly limited imagination to think we
will never get there.
40 years ago people did the same sorts of extrapolations on air-travel and figured that 15-20 years later all commercial air travel would be supersonic. And why wouldn't they? Orville Wright was still alive when the first supersonic flight took place. We went from not being able to fly heavier-than-air machines to breaking the sound barrier in 43 years. But of course, that didn't happen.And in just the past few years we've gone backwards. There is currently no supersonic passenger jet in service.
A lot of domains appear to exhibit the same asymptotic behavior. Space travel, medicine, AI etc. Domains where initial speed causes undue optimism and where we later suffer regressions. (No regressions in medicine you say? Well, how about the crazy anti-vaccination people and the re-emergence of diseases that were practically eradicated?)
I build stuff, I program stuff, I occasionally build and race cars. I don't think my skepticism stems from _lack_ of imagination -- I think it has more to do with an abundance of imagination.
The argument about airplane maintenance also doesn't hold water. Result of a
malfunctioning plane: plunge 30,000ft and hundreds dead. Result of a
malfunctioning car: coast to a gentle stop. See any difference?
I'm sorry, but that is pure nonsense and many, many, many people pay the ultimate price to prove you wrong every day.Now you're moving the goalposts to suit your argument.
Supersonic flight was abandoned because it is expensive and prohibitively noisy. Will some set of obstacles also arise to stymie autonomous vehicles? Maybe, but we wont know till we try.
The regression in medicine is due to pure stupidity. Will the same or similar type of stupidity raise its head to block self-driven cars? Again the answer is maybe. Maybe not. We wont know till we've tried.
many, many, many people pay the ultimate price to prove you wrong every day
You misunderstood what I said. My point was that if a computer controlled car's computer fails it can be made to fail-safe. Shut down and coast to a stop. The same cant be said for planes.
Of course we will have scenarios of computers being mis-programmed and causing death. The point being that once a bug is found and eliminated it wont reoccur. Not to mention that a human will never drive as well or recover from trouble (such as a fishtail) as well as a computer. Our interfaces are simply too slow, clumsy, prone to fatigue, prone to mis judgement due to adrenaline etc. the list goes on.
I get what you're saying about optimistic extrapolation being a trap... but we don't have to extrapolate far from where we are today. The google self driven cars have already driven tens of thousands of miles with the only recorded accident occurring when the vehicle was under human control.
Not only that but Nevada has already licensed the cars for testing on its roads. Now you can argue that the testing is not 100% authentic. From what I understand the routes are pre-programmed and 2 occupants must be in the car at all times. But to say that this tech wont go anywhere for the next 50-60 years (however long you intend to live :) ) ... seems to lack imagination.
This isn't everyone using personal jet-packs or interstellar travel we're talking about here.
Just because you are at ground-level you are not safe if you lose control of the vehicle.
> The point being that once a bug is found and eliminated it > wont reoccur.
We already have a software industry and we know that this doesn't happen: bugs do not occur only once and then get eliminated forever. There are people making a living writing books about mistakes that people repeat over and over in software.
The dream isn't dead yet:
http://www.aopa.org/aircraft/articles/2012/120426back-to-a-s...
At that point we can do away with all traffic lights except for pedestrian crossings. Not only will stop signs be unnecessary, cars could approach intersections at speed, knowing that there was a gap in the cross-traffic for them to fit through. If you let a single human-driven car onto those streets you couldn't implement anything like that, though.
If you follow how rules and regulations aimed at making traffic more secure over time you'll notice that the incremental improvements are becoming smaller and smaller. In most sensible jurisdictions, the important, big stuff that saves lots of lives is in place and people are now bickering over the little stuff that is perhaps going to same a small number of people. Or, in many cases, won't save a single person, might even cause more accidents, but generates more revenue.
If you want to analyze something in terms of value to society you'll have to be prepared for a lot of unpleasant aspects.
Why don't we now have self-driving trains/subways? They move on rails but we keep insisting they must be supervised by people in the vehicle (with a few exceptions like people movers at airports and amusement parks, etc).
You could ask the same questions about human-driven cars. When the stoplights don't work and there's ice over all the roads, sensible people stay off the roads, and people with a death wish go out for a spin.
If you have these driving conditions 1/3 of the year 1) Finnish drivers grow up learning how to handle it because they have to, 2) most if not all of your cars have 4 wheel drive and ice-capable tires.
That is not the case here. Those driving conditions are rare.
At least one Paris metro line (ligne 1?) has been automated, and it's faster and more frequent than most of the other lines there - at least that's my anecdotal experience from two weeks ago.
seriously, what's wrong with you? individual mobility is a great freedom and source of happiness. i like to be able to control a machine, drive it up a mountain. i've spent months driving all across the US, Europe and places like Iceland. best experiences ever, every single turn was a choice by me.
the minute you make every thing super safe people will kill themselves out of boredom.
but i guess you're one of those people that want to ban drugs, sugar, fat, knifes, flight, compilers and anything with sharp edges.
and your numbers, oh scary, TEN 9/11s. maybe all that shows us that on a historic scale, 9/11 wasn't that big? how many people got wiped out on D-Day? By the Spanish Flu?
How about the upside. Every bike rider I've ever talked to bitches about stupid "cage drivers". Imagine if every 4 wheeler was autonomous.. no more bitching, you'd be able to zig-zag between them easily, and if you do happen to lose concentration for a moment you can rest assured that a computer will (probably) stop before it kills you.
the minute you make every thing super safe people will kill themselves out of boredom.
Really? You think people would kill themselves because they no longer had to manually do one of the most boring, repetitive, tedious everyday things they have to do? Personally I'd read a book.
What you're not realizing is that it's often not the person causing the accident that gets hurt, the idea of making something as tedious as driving automated is that it's safer for everyone.
Drugs already are banned. The ones you're most likely talking about are anyway. And the reason is because they fuck people up.
How about people do something productive with their lives instead of taking drugs, developing diabetes from sugar, overweight from fat, and kill people with large heavy steel motorized machines?
You can try to belittle 30,000 people but if you stop cleaning your guns to think about it long enough you might actually appreciate that all those people probably didn't want to die from theirs and other people's driving mistakes.
and yes, i believe in every adults right to fuck him or herself up. if i want to exercise, let me. if i enjoy fatty food, let me. if i enjoy driving my car, let me.
and why do i need to be productive? who says that? life is short, why be "productive" all the time? how about some fun, self-indulgence and mindless games?
we already have rules to protect the general population, way too many in certain areas, far too less in others. speeding is forbidden, pot as well - but areas like finance are wide open.
how about focusing the efforts of banning things on stuff that impact millions, at the same time rather than stuff that will hurt me and maybe a few folks around me? is that line of thinking too European? does everything in the US that might lead to unproductive, un-puritan fun be banned? nudity, foul language,...how dare people do that?
If you want to get yourself fucked up then you're most likely quite happy to have the rest of society bear the burden of your subsequent health care, ditto for your diabetes care etc. I'm sure you get what I'm trying to say.
None of us live on an island, our actions impact others and when it does so (as Spock said) the needs of the many outweigh the needs if the few.
This country (America) is already being financially crippled by health care costs so reducing sugar and fat and car accidents seems to make perfect sense, even at the cost of a few's peoples' adrenaline fixes.
I don't disagree with you on Spanish flu (50m people died), or on the corrupt financial system, but that's a fragile house of cards. Economics is a complex system and it's all based on a mutual agreement in the value of little pieces of paper. It's a social contract that is holding together the fabric of capitalism. While that night not be the perfect system, it's so far the least bad that we've found.
"why do you need to be productive" - maybe I came across as being a little self righteous (which is far from the truth), I was just trying to say that one persons fun is very often a ton is work for the rest of society, those that scrape up the parts after a motorcycle accident, those that provide health care and those of us (all of us) that pay for it in our insurance premiums. Why should I, someone who is fit and healthy pay for everyone else's indulgence in fat and sugars that bought about heart disease and diabetes. The answer of course is that same one that is the reason why fixing cars safety is important, because the individual sometimes has to sacrifice something for the success of the rest of society.
force us to spend time with people who found out what thousands of pounds of metal does to the human body when it decelerates quickly.
I think there will be two nice outcomes:
1. Lots of people will chose not to get a license (and will probably avoid cars altogether).
2. The people that do get licenses will drive with a lot more care and respect.
It's funny how some people really think that self-driving cars are a bad thing, automation is a bad thing and people should be kept in labor. Yet, the same excact people, "optimize" their workflows by automating things, writing scripts, making the machines do as much as possible because there's no human-errors, it's cheap and it's very fast.
I really don't see (consumer)cars having no steering wheels, pedals or any other conrol equipment. What I see is cars gradually(within the next 5-10 years and onwards) get more and more of technologies to assist and aid with driving, ultimately resulting in a vehicle to which you can just say the address, and it will get you there. And yes, you'll still need a driving license for driving such a vehicle for decades, even if you don't expicitly take any control over the driving process.
For some it's an awesome future, for some it's a nightmare.
Having seen the possible consequences of a bad decision first-hand does not, in fact, stop people from making bad decisions.
For certain personality types.
Are you saying if 16 year olds were forced to work with rehab patients, a good percentage of them would not be scared away from driving?
A lot of people drive without a license.
This is the way things work in south africa. Gettting a license is really, really difficult and expensive, so people don't do it.
How we punish those people is a separate matter.
No. No. No.
Also, the answer to the danger & death problem is well understood -- you simply require people to first accumulate several dozen hours behind the wheel, under supervised instruction, with training for emergency situations, just like we do now with pilots licenses. The fact that this hasn't happened yet in the US (like it has in say, Germany) should show you what a political impossibility what you're saying really is.
Which is the scarier dystopia? Your phone keeps a running tab on your location, which could be accessed by the state or Google? Or your mode of transportation is tracking you, _and can be over-ridden or disabled at any time by the state or by Google_...
It has a top of the line electronic routing OS, designed by Visual Basic veterans.
You're presenting a false choice here. There's lots of other ways to attack the drunk driving problem without taking everyone's drivers licenses away and banning normal driving, as the OP was advocating.
1. Anti-drink driving campaigns and counter measures don't work. People make the choice to drive while drunk when their decision making powers are at their worst.
2. The issue with human controlled driving goes far deeper than just DUI. The fact is that we're (collectively) just not very good at it. Even if you are the best, most cautious most defensive driver there's nothing you can do about some idiot running a red light because he was adjusting his stereo. Your perfect driving record is intact but you're dead anyway.
3. The chance of being injured or killed while driving are astronomically higher than the chance of big brother having the motive/inclination to want to remotely control your car (although I might feel differently if I lived in Syria - even then this is getting really close to tinfoil hat territory).
The way I see it computer controlled cars shouldn't be seen as curtailing freedoms, rather as relieving us from tedium and making us safer.
As for the automation stealing jobs argument, that's a whole 'nother can of worms.
There are many benefits to self-driving cars, and sure, security may be one of them, but don't delude yourself thinking you can solve all societies chores by restraining what people can do. People still smoke, even though it's known to be harmful. People do stupid sh. Neither technology or regulation are substitutes to wisdom.
Most delays and jams and other various issues drivers deal with are a result of human error. Suppose a driver on a highway slows down because {they see something interesting, their kid acts up, life happens}. This makes the car immediately behind them slow down. And the car behind that slows down. It's been shown that this forms a wave that propagates backwards at 12 mph or so. The fact is, this delay is caused by a human mistake/issue.
In a world in which every car drives "optimally", or at least without many of the human error mistakes that currently are made, many traffic jams will be a thing of the past. Many issues will cease to exist any any issues that do exist will be ameliorated and fixed by a machine that can do it better than most humans (or at least, the average joe) can. Perhaps one will be able to drive at the speed limit the entire distance from source to sink if the traffic grid is integrated into the network.
The transition to the post-driver road, however, will be difficult.
Hopefully, the ability to read, play games, watch TV, etc. while being driven to work will be sufficient to make people willing to let their smart cars take over the roads. As you note, traffic jams will become a thing of the past in most cases; self-driving cars can also factor in traffic data, weather information, etc. in ways that a human driver probably can't easily/effectively do, making them safer and more efficient in a lot of other regards.
Almost a decade ago, traffic studies demonstrated that if only 20% of cars used adaptive cruise control, then traffic jams would be greatly diminished at then-peak carrying capacity. Or more cars could be carried on a particular road before traffic jams occurred.
Adaptive Cruise Control is currently a feature on many luxury cars, but will trickle down to mass market cars during the transition to driverless vehicles.
A similar effect is in play with 'metering light' systems - total throughput may be increased (counter-intuitively) by reducing localized traffic densities and smoothing irregularities in flow.
But people tend to perceive speed more readily than time to destination, and tend not to be very aware of total traffic throughput at all.
When you go to driverless cars you can have higher traffic volumes on the road before you have to slow down. However the fundamental mathematical fact behind car jams is that you can pass more cars/second at high speed than at low. So if you have a road running near capacity at high speed and anything goes wrong, then you get a car jam that by necessity must travel backwards and grow in the process.
During peak commute hours, the volume of people who want to be on the road exceeds their capacity. As long as this remains the case, we'll continue to have car jams.
Once self-driving cars are "the new normal", they'll be a lot more comfortable than regular cars. Which means that a lot of people won't think twice about a 75-minute car commute, because with internet access and the ability to read and an extremely comfortable chair, it won't be unpleasant to do so. And we will (because our reaction time is slow compared to a computer's) be able to raise the speed limits once self-driving cars are the norm: 150 mph highways where human-driven cars are banned, just as you can't take a bicycle on 65-mph highway. None of this is inherently bad, but I hope we won't be burning hydrocarbons to do it.
Jams are not only capacity problem, but also sociological. People are willing to tolerate certain waiting time to get to fun/profitable location. If there are less jams and roads are free and gasoline is cheap, people will drive more.
What seems to me to be the problem is people follow a greedy algorithm. They cut into the closing lane because it's empty (or sparsely populated), then attempt to jet to the forced merge point then merge. At some point too many people do this, then you get two lines, one in the closing lane, one in the open lane that have to come to a complete stop and take turns.
Remove people's ability to follow a greedy algorithm and I predict you'll see a dramatic decrease in traffic jams due to lane closure.
I would not be at all surprised in the coming world of robo-cars to find that humans who still wanted to drive themselves will need special licensing and training, much like pilots of today, if nothing more than to learn to be predictable.
Here is a cool video from CAR 2 CAR... http://www.car-to-car.org/index.php?id=132&L=mbgiqdmn
We shouldn't think of automated cars as independent as we do. They are in fact simply compartments.
With that in mind, imagine cars attaching to each other to form trains and break apart as they begin to reach the desired destination.
This also has impacts on fuel efficiency since drag can be reduced across the entire system.
(Cars don't have to be the same model, they just need a formalized attachment system on the front / rear).
[edit, just thinking, if we knew destination in advance, the first car would be the one going furthest and the last car in the group going the shortest so that the interruption would be inconsequential]
Back to accidents, there will the edge cases. And because it's programmed (and not a human "accident") people might find more fault in the system than they would in a human. So even though accidents and deaths would/could be reduced considerably, those that would occur might be seen as more negligent than accident. Just thinking out loud.
Having worked on an autonomous car and competed in the Urban Challenge I can attest to the safety of these vehicles. They truly can navigate obstacles that are withing 2-3 inches of the car reliably and confidently. The other interesting thing is that highways are in many ways one of the easiest types of road to drive on. Highway driving while fast, is very structured. There are relatively few rules to follow and they are rarely broken. For this reason I believe highways will be the initial realm of autonomous vehicles and that they will be allowed to drive at higher speeds(perhaps under the guise of human control of the speed in order to shift the blame to a human party.)
Speed limits are set for a public benefit, and its a sort of tragedy of the commons why speeding by humans is the norm.
That's when you get things like 6 lane divided roads with a 50km/h speed limit. Just excruciatingly slow.
It's important to note that there isn't an obvious relationship between traffic volume and traffic speed. If you model traffic separation as a constant two seconds (front-to-front) your traffic flow is 1800 vehicles per hour at all speeds.
Of course, your average person cares more about how close the back of the car in front of them is, so flow rates at very low speeds are lower than at high speeds. At higher speeds you get other problems, though - traffic gets "patchy" as some people get a little nervous, as people drive at different speeds and so on.
You probably get the most people per hour through a lane of traffic at around 60km/h. Everyone's travelling at about the same separation and about the same speed, and they're all tailgating the guy in front of them trying to make him go a little faster. The speed leaves enough breathing room for everyone to drive consistently, which is supposed to be the big benefit of these self-driving cars.
Of course, these lower limits seem to increase travel times in a very obvious way, and the congestion relief they provide is pretty abstract. It's understandable that people aren't entirely convinced.
Additionally, speed limits are set for the benefit of police (increasing ticket costs) and for the benefit of politicians who can now say they are "making roads safer".
Case in point: the Autobahn http://autos.aol.com/article/driving-the-autobahn/
(but I am also still welcoming driverless cars! I'm okay getting places slower if it means I can read or study.)
Driverless cars are fully attentive, and should have a lower error rate than normal / tired / drunk / distracted / angry / frustrated humans. This I welcome.
Lack of sufficient climbing lanes on most of the original interstate system. Poorly designed junctions, including merges into the high-speed lanes Inadequate road thickness (autobahn is 55-75cm, US is 28cm), initial quality, drainage capability and maintenance. Inadequate driver training. Lack of enforcement for failing to bear right (though the US is doing this more now) and other minor moving violations that disrupt traffic flow.
The US interstate system would need considerable re-engineering, more funding to keep up with the required maintenance, and both tougher licensing requirements and stricter enforcement of minor moving violations that increase risk. It's a huge cost, that doesn't provide proportionate benefit in all parts of the country, and a questionable ROI. Trust me, I'd love higher speed limits, but I realize the giant mountain of money and effort that would be required to make it happen.
As a thought experiment, imagine that Walmart is given the opportunity to buy more expensive driverless long haul trucks, that are still much cheaper to operate because no driver is needed. Walmart would be willing to pay a use tax for each mile driven as long as the total business case made sense for the life of the new vehicles.
What if you no longer need highway patrol officers to enforce speed limits and traffic laws? Or maybe you need a tenth as many on the road?
What if the number of times emergency responders are needed dropped precipitously because of fewer accidents? Emergency room visits are the only socialized medicine in the US (and horribly inefficient socialized medicine at that), so reducing them will have a huge impact on road-related expenditures borne by all of us.
What if we can begin to phase out signage and signals because the cars know where we're going and know when to stop and start? It will be decades before all cars are self-driving, but roads and lanes could be designated self-driving only, and those lanes could be free of extraneous signals and signs.
What if we can reduce number of miles traveled by optimizing routes, thus reducing damage to roads (subtly, but for big trucks, the differences could add up faster)?
Taxing self-driving vehicles more would be an impediment to a great good, so I hope that doesn't happen.
But, I'm not a fan of the punitive nature of our criminal justice system in general (don't get me started on how many Americans are in prison)...so I may be in the minority in taking this view. And, whether people agree with me or not, actually making the changes in revenue structure required to completely eliminate traffic tickets as a source of revenue for municipalities will be a challenge. Governments are not good at reducing their need for money, so it's likely that most will have to squeeze the money out of some other source, such as higher taxes.
Oh yeah, I agree. But when the voting populace effectively agrees they'd rather take a chance on not being pulled over for speeding rather than approve an income tax for people making over $250,000 a year...well, you reap what you sow.
But if all cars are run by computers, we can raise speed limits considerably, since reaction time, sleeplessness, stupidity, etc... are all non-factors anymore. The only problem is whether or not your car can actually go as fast as everyone else, but for that we can set up fast and slow lanes similar to the somewhat unofficial way things go on the highway now (faster the closer to the leftmost lane you are).
Is that the reason we have speed limits?
I've always thought it's more like we don't want to deal with the consequences of something going wrong when there is too much energy involved. i.e. blow a tire, or hit a patch of gravel at 60mph and see what happens. Now try it at 160mph.
There is the complication of less capable cars --so that maybe bunches of cars (those part of a wave of traffic) would have to submit to the safety levels of the least safe vehicle. (Let's say a bunch of high performance sports cars and an economical car which isn't designed for hugging the road nor has grippy tires; or, throw in a cargo truck).
Maybe the rightmost lane could be reserved for non autonomous vehicles like classics and holdouts (people afraid of automation/driverlessness).
Given that speeding tickets would be rare, the state could impose fees based on a combination of emissions and also road wear (tonnage, for example) to offset lost revenue.
A street that, per our state's code and regulation, should be 45 mph, gets dropped to 40, then to 35. Nothing significant has changed with its facing development and use. But the community, or of some excess of caution or some orthogonal desire for control, keeps ratcheting it down.
In other spots, they start putting up stop signs at every block. They aren't really warranted, but in a variety of "think of the children" attitude, perhaps combined with a twist on NIMBY (Not In My Back-Yard) attitude, the through-street needs to "be somewhere else". Until there no longer is a through-street.
So fine, have these cars obey the speed limits. But then set reasonable limits, ones that are evidence-based and not politicized.
If self driving cars become ubiquitous, there is no longer a reason to have this buffer built in. Perhaps the whole idea of posted speed limits will become obsolete if the software determines the maximum speed in the moment for a certain risk tolerance.
I don't see the self-driving car as a completely different car than a normal one - maybe more like an expensive option (with all the sensors, data and stuff it will be expensive) for a normal car, that can give you back the control when you want it.
Also, pretty much the last person we (as a society) want speeding is a tired, stressed, freaking-out, distracted, soon-to-be-husband.
Self-driving cars can be great because of the shear impact on utility for vehicles and safety implications.
I'm quite excited about the advent of self-driving cars and the underling operating systems that will make them amazing for humans.
I do believe there is room for both types of driving. It's possible our freeways will be segmented such that automated cars can go in certain lanes (perhaps even barrier protected) while the remaining traffic stays in other lanes / roads.
Traffic, or more specifically congestion, is primarily caused by excess cars on any edge (road) in which it simply takes N+1 cars to cause. Inconsistent driving patterns cause effective waves of inconsistency down the pipe exacerbating the situation (stop and go traffic actually makes congestion even worse).
Thinking about the overall network at a higher level makes all of this even more exciting. Consider the scenario in which N cars are on an edge with capacity N. If your car was about to enter the road you would basically contribute to traffic. This cost, C, is then felt across N+1 (don't forget to include yourself!) people at a minimum which is C*(N+1) minutes of human time that is lost.
If our cars, and ourselves, were better informed you might take an alternate and sub-optimal route that taxes you an extra T minutes but the overall network of time is optimized. Perhaps you'll even get a reward for it. And perhaps the reward is simply allowing all the people currently on the road a faster commute home so they can be with their loved ones.
Beyond that, as people have mentioned here already, the faster we can go and caravanning (which can be done safely by allowing cars to attach to one another in train format) improves overall throughput (and make traffic less likely).
Finally if we think about traffic, it's really just load and it needs to be distributed better across all possible routes and time. We have commute hours, but one thing to think about is that with a self-driving car I can leave to LA at 12AM and get there at 6AM while sleeping in the back of the car.
Self-driving cars will increase utility on vehicles, but also on time for travel routes ideally. This will spread the load (since humans generally have some biological clock they operate by) to utilize the 24 hours a day we have a little bit better.
And if your car can't speed I guess we should invest in really good alarm clocks and reminders :)
That sounds like a larger problem and even harder to solve. How do you teach a robot to react to honking, like how humans can?
Even ignoring that, I don't think I've ever seen a situation in which I think a horn actually helped in a near-accident situation. It tends to just be the thing someone honks in anger after the immediate danger is already avoided. IME (as someone who has never been in an accident but has seen quite a few near misses and accidents on SoCal freeways) usually once the horn comes into play it is either too late and the accident occurs anyway or the horn is honked after the fact as a "fuck you" to the other person.