I can’t imagine how someone would compare it to a multi-sensor setup - a single camera can’t match the level of prescience a Waymo or Cruise have. But also as the overall experience is just absurdly different. Waymo was the first tech thing I felt was truly magical in _decades_.
Meanwhile the best I can get out of Tesla FSD is straight highways. And even there, there’s random glitches (the forever annoying ghost braking being the one that makes me feel particularly unsafe with it)
The problem is that at the end of the day, enough people still have serious issues and Tesla wildly oversells the capability of their system.
I think they’ll “get there” in terms of functionality and reliability but it’s nowhere near what waymo is reporting
Tesla's equivalent system appears to be 100% vaporware. I don't understand the case for them not being far behind.
My gut tells me Waymo is ahead, probably by a good amount. But calling Telsa FSD "vaporware" is absurd, and leads me to the same conclusion that GP already called out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeNKYRWGgBc
Just because Elon was optimistic in 2017 doesn't make this any less impressive.
I have been following closely. 13.2 is a major leap forward. It is VERY impressive.
It's also five years late.
It's got some serious issues, such as intervention rates (which, despite being massively lower, are still too high).
It has trouble in California-style adverse weather conditions. This is largely due to it's vision based sensors.
And by the way, I'm not saying they're not going to "pull it off". I think they're one of the few that will succeed, to be honest. I'm saying that it is nowhere close to where it needs to be to match Tesla's promises.
> This is the most advanced AI driving system in the world.
That is a bold claim, and one that I don't think is true. Tied for first or just second most advanced, I would absolutely believe. And certainly one of the five major players.
It's also missing some key customer service and realtime service components, that took Waymo over 4 years to roll out and fine tune. And Waymo is still having edge case issues!
> Just because Elon was optimistic in 2017 doesn't make this any less impressive.
That understates his repeated broken and aggressive promises, often made during investor meetings. It makes it hard to believe his claims about the future.
As for the most advanced AI driving system, yes you could argue Waymo is more advanced, it's certainly more complex. By most advanced I mean that it's fully end to end, and this is a very new development in AI and robotics (which I work with). It's actually a much simpler architecture than other systems. But as we've seen repeatedly, what tends to win is simple models with a ton of compute and data.
As for V13.2, it won't be perfect, but it's also not the final version. It's approaching feature complete, and we've seen it handle snow covered roads at the very least. Rain hasn't really been a problem for recent versions. In my view, weather is mostly a matter of data collection at this point.