Now they've gone back to what I think GM's original plan was for acquiring Cruise — using their tech for passenger cars. Selling cars is GM's bread and butter. This wasn't going to end any other way.
Now they've gone back to what I think GM's original plan was for acquiring Cruise — using their tech for passenger cars. Selling cars is GM's bread and butter. This wasn't going to end any other way.
Then they didn't deliver.
Waymo hasn't left blood on the pavement. Cruise and Tesla have.
As long as we're clutching our pearls and being overdramatic, how much blood have the humans left on the pavement in the meantime?
Can you point to scientifically rigorous evidence, at least reaching the bare minimum of fit for publication, of the absolute level of safety of those systems and where they stand in comparison?
How many people am I allowed to kill or injure before I need to run scientific studies on unproven and empirically fatal technology?
That is not only insane, but empirically false in the USA as people cared very greatly about Cruise injuring people during the development process.
You have to be answering the question: “Assuming we already know for a fact that the technology is safer than a human driver, then, if scaled to all drives, how many can die annually and still be morally justifiable?”
My question is: “How many do I get to kill before I need to figure out if I am killing fewer people?” That is the basic question to be asked during the development process of any unproven dangerous technology to minimize sacrifices to technological dead ends.
[1] https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2016/03/11/70647585...
I can't speak to their technology, but generally speaking Cruise seemed too cautious, both in the aggressiveness of the driving, and in how quickly the company capitulated. I've taken Waymo a few times and what stands out to me is how aggressive Waymo cars are. As a passenger this aggressiveness makes them feel more sophisticated, not to mention faster, but the cars also spook pedestrians to a greater extent as they nose their way into traffic or through turns. Nonetheless, Waymo has been more adept at moving past bad publicity than Cruise, including in the face of accidents.
Above and beyond whatever technological shortcomings there may have been[1], I think there was a management and business development mismatch between GM and Cruise. Cruise manifestly worked well enough. With better management--more honest, but also more aggressive--it could have been a contender; heck, it was (is?) the only proven competitor to Waymo for autonomous public taxi service, at least in the U.S.
[1] In 3 Waymo trips remote intervention was required once, which is a comparable ratio to my Cruise trips.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
...maybe you are meaning something more specific?
This had the slope I remember.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/199974/us-car-sales-sinc...
But, buyers are moving from cars to SUV's.
You can see something similar happening with Waymo. If it were actually scalable & in sight of a promising ROI, why wouldn't Alphabet fund it themselves rather than bringing in outside investment?
Every car sold does about 100,000 to 250,000 passenger miles. Every taxi does about 200,000 to 500,000 miles. Due to deadheading, a taxi does almost 2 miles for every passenger mile.
[1] https://www.newsweek.com/anthony-levandowski-donald-trump-fu...
I’m serious about this point too. Eg. Intel pays less than half of what tsmc in Taiwan pays for similar jobs on a ppp basis after 20years of wage freezes and cuts at intel. They can’t poach any talent and investors want more layoffs and wage freezes next quarter to fix the decline they see. GM is similar. It’s not going to turn around and start competing in the high end labor market reasonably. It can’t. The big shareholders would sack the ceo in seconds. Think GM could ever compete with Google (Waymo) in a market where ai engineers can earn ) 1m/yr? Ha! The MBAs wouldn’t allow it for a second.
https://www.indeed.com/cmp/Intel-Corporation/job-titles/Inte...
They unsurprisingly rate ‘very easy interview’ on glassdoor since they’d hire no one without lowering the bar significantly. I would never begrudge anyone working at these broken companies either fwiw. You just have to be aware it’s a job you have while looking for a reasonably paying job. If anyone wants a lesson in the core place the rot starts consider maybe there’s a reason intel is struggling to achieve what it’s much higher paying competitors achieve.
A very similar story plays out for GM, Boeing and the other rotting companies. Short term focus leading to non-competitiveness in the labor market leading to poorer results in all aspects. GM is not going to win this. They can’t due to a focus on production lines using minimum wage staff and applying that to knowledge work.
For example: https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=reTensor
It was well-known and well-leaked that something was wrong with Cruise.
As soon as Cruise closed up shop, the complaints went way down.
https://sfstandard.com/2023/09/12/muni-bus-killed-san-franci...