Forgetting that we just leapt over the fact that the conditions of this planet are the only-evidence for the genesis of Life, and went straight to evolution, and while you logic is sound in theory, I'd again point to the probable fact that the necessary conditions for Life are massively underestimated.

Perhaps mostly in terms of genesis, but also sustainability and even given theoretical evolutionary differences for hypothetical aliens.

But genesis is really the only discussion that matters. Which is also very true for those that believe that there is a good possibility for alien Life.

The math is beyond me to do, but I once got into a conversation with Claude that sought to find the probable distance of the nearest exoplanet that has possible Earth like conditions matching only a couple of additional factors that aren't commonly considered. Whereas I have dozens more. Claude's estimation was that the nearest such planet would be over two million light years away.

Another conversation sought to understand the probability of an exact replica of this solar system somewhere else in the Universe. That probability is zero.