Worth noting that the Il-76 in question is capable of a grass landing if necessary: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/JTUprcyx-xw

Seems like they left the transponder off until they left Damascus proper, went up to a partial cruise altitude, turned, descended and took a runway approach pattern turning toward Lebanon. Whether or not it's a red herring is anyone's guess, but I suspect Assad and the Republican Guard will be unloaded here. It would be pretty risky to fly the plane to somewhere like Russia with the transponder live, and potentially even more dangerous to go somewhere else with it on.