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Comment by djeastm | Hacker News Reader

Folks, just live your life how it fits you. We're all born into a different set of circumstances that dictate many of the choices we make. We all have different ideas about what life means to us and what levels of risk we're comfortable taking. Listen to your gut and focus on what you'll be smiling about as you lie on your deathbed.

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These past three year's markets have been super tough. It's the hardest I've worked in my life to be employed in the field I was interested in actually working in, which is building software. I've had to get two new roles in that time due to layoffs. 1000's of applications, and all that entails. I was ready to be a farmhand this summer before things actually worked out, figured I would get to work a farm on a lake, and fish on my time off, it's pretty much what I want to do when I retire, shouldn't be so bad. Just be flexible. Work as hard as you can to get what you want, but remember McDonalds pays nearly $20 an hour these days, if it keeps the lights on, don't be above it. Better than being homeless.

I fear that we might be in the twilight of the software development job market:

https://www.hnhiringtrends.com/

Everybody got used to continuous growth, but I fear that for most people the music has stopped.

I think this chart would have been greatly enhanced by adding Fed interest rates.

The way things were during the previous decade was not sustainable. The current situation too shall pass and hopefully evolve into something more sustainable.

I for one don't miss the churn fuelled by easy VC money.

https://imgur.com/a/hfc2wq2

And there we have it, thank you.

This has nothing to do with you, but the experience of Imgur on mobile is miserable. Want to zoom in to look at the picture closer? Too bad, here’s some dumb other picture not related to the one you were looking at

Seems too rely on very little data

This graph is pretty misleading because it starts right after the ~2008 recession and doesn't include data leading up to that, or any previous boom/bust iterations such as the ~2000 dotcom bubble bursting. The correlation with interest rates is also relevant, as somebody else noted.

This contention is actually trivial to dispel. As a late 2000's HN user, I can assure you there was no secret 2009 groundswell of jobs, and that there was no HN before 2008.

Without seriously digging into the data, 2001-ish (dot-bomb) was pretty much a nuclear winter for tech and 2008-or so was enough of a general downturn that I made the decision not to play my networking cards even though I didn't feel in a good place with my then-employer. Today doesn't seem great--certainly not quit a job/have a new job by Friday great for most much less work multiple "full-time" jobs like some people were boasting of a while back. Stuff is certainly not falling into your lap to the degree it was 2-3 years ago. You have to chase it and may or may not luck out.

What? The contention is that jobs had booms and busts before HN. Starting off the low base of 2008, of course the graph shows growth. It does not show the 80s, 90s, or the dot com boom, or the dot com bust.

My contention is that pronouncing doom for hiring in the software sector based on a graph that does not include any previous boom/bust cycles is, at best, misleading.

I actually didn't see that these data are HN-specific, but that only serves to reinforce my point in two ways: 1) HN is only a small sample of the overall industry, and 2) since HN hiring presumably skews disproportionately toward the startup/VC funded ecosystem, it's likely to be even harder hit by interest rate hikes and economic downturns.

2008-9 was pretty bad. When I got laid off I decided it was better to take myself off the market and go back to college a few months later to finish my degree (I had 2 more years of school left) than try to fight for a job right away.

I can't pull that trick off again. But at least right now I still have a job, and don't seem to be too much at risk of losing it for the moment (work at a consulting firm and developing some highly requested features that will make a lot of money at my current client).

What happened that inverted the curves? Purple realized that hiring here isn't a good habit?

It's tied to interest rates. My main concern, frankly, is that those very low interest rates will not return soon and in the meantime the IT job market will be flooded with tons of candidates which will not be absorbed by the market. So at least at the lower end of the job pyramid things will be a bloodbath, which will probably also start pressuring towards the mid-levels. So overall the IT job market will start sucking and the glory days of the 2000s (except for 2000, 2001, 2008, 2009), 2010s and early 2020s will remain behind us.

Is this data normalised to account for differences in traffic/popularity of the HN platform between 2008 - 2024?

Reason being: If the distributions of user types have changed over time (e.g. 2010 having a higher % of more entrepreneurial / founder type users vs employee-type fokls [like myself] looking for their next gig) then it could skew the results no?

Anecdotally the graph makes total sense. I'd just take the absolute ratio/differences with a pinch of salt.

I also recommend adding a search with the hiring keyword "remote". It really highlights had the pandemic not happened...

> McDonalds pays nearly $20 an hour these days, if it keeps the lights on, don't be above it.

I was between jobs several years ago and my startup failed - I ended up washing up at a restaurant to be able to continue feeding my family. At the time it was humiliating to be in my late 30s scrubbing pots and pans for the minimum wage but looking back it’s probably one of the periods of my life I’m most proud of: Putting pride aside to do what’s required to be a father and a provider.

> At the time it was humiliating to be in my late 30s scrubbing pots and pans for the minimum wage

I’m not sure if this is part of America’s “temporarily embarrassed millionaire” syndrome, but I don’t see anything wrong doing dishes for 8-12 hours straight to feed your family… unless this is actually the norm in thinking and maybe it’s just my poor blue collar upbringing?

I agree-there's nothing wrong with the means nor ends. But, I'd bet that most people, after having failed a big endeavor that they put a lot of energy and time into, would feel at least some mixture of doubt/discouragement/disillusionment. Pile onto that resorting to less respected work (in a culture obsessed with money/power/prestige) and I can easily see how the parent commenter would feel some sort of humiliation during those times.

Nothing at all wrong with doing what is necessary to provide. Growing up we were poor... Lots of mac and cheese dinners. My parents were young, starting from nothing, and watching them struggle to build a little wealth was humbling.

From 15 to 19 I worked restaurant/shipment jobs, and carried a rifle in a warzone soon after that. Fast forward to present day - I sit at a desk and write software all day, getting paid well to do it. If I didn't have a job tomorrow you bet I'd be doing what it takes to provide. However, if I had to go back to the restaurant or shipment centers making 1/8th to 1/4 of what I do now you bet I'd be feeling pretty fucking pitiful about myself.

Do I look down on the work? Absolutely not. We do what we need to survive. IMO though, as a physically/mentally healthy person, the idea is using lower paying monotonous positions like washing dishes as a stepping stone for a more fulfilling and better paying career move.

I think that’s commendable! Out of curiosity, did you find a tech job again?

Yes, this was back in 2016 - I got back in my feet after about six months.

Glad to hear that!

Completely agree. What is a "stable life" for some is complete chaos for others. What is "taking risks" for some is too safe and boring for others...

Speaking of different circumstances, here's a helpful income comparator based on actual numbers: https://wid.world/income-comparator/ . Figure out how common your situation is where you are.

Unfortunately, I only get this from the website:

{ "statusCode": "TypeError", "message": "Cannot read properties of undefined (reading '0')" } An error occurred

Oh my god it's worse than we thought...

My gut is telling me to sleep around. I don't always listen to it

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