The momentum of the solar energy transition
nature.com
nature.com
It's interesting that uptake is slow in developing countries - If anything I would expect solar to actually be quite beneficial in places like Africa without well-developed grids, since it's so easy to set up in an independent manner - I guess it might just be down to insufficient income to manage even that :(
Pakistan is now the third-largest importer of Chinese solar panels, buying an incredible 13 gigawatts (GW) in just the first half of this year. To compare, the United Kingdom is expected to add only 1.5-2GW of solar capacity this year and the United States added 32GW in 2023. This likely makes Pakistan the sixth-largest installer of solar panels in 2024 but locally, the impact is even bigger
In six months, Pakistan imported solar capacity equal to 30% of its total power capacity, which was 46GW in 2023.
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/10/distributed-solar-en...
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/06/18/... | https://archive.today/iqE4Q
https://www.inonafrica.com/2024/10/09/africa-moves-to-finall...
The problem is that if you want to use solar for something more serious, you get hit with an impenetrable wall. You can't use solar for something like air conditioning or cooking without having a grid-tie inverter (expensive) and a grid. And completely stand-alone systems with batteries are completely out of the question, for now.
A ~200$ UPS may only have minutes of batteries, but it got all the electronics for inverting 1.5KW and safely connecting to the grid which would let you run an AC.
I’d expect there to be a market for a cheap box where you can just plug into a wall outlet run in some DC lines from a PV, and then keep an AC running when either the grid or solar panels are supplying power no need for batteries or a knowledgeable electrician. Even just leaning solar panels on the side of your house and running a cord in through the window would work.
The problem is that there aren't that many loads for them (well, maybe a fridge). Even a small AC needs at least 1.5kW of power, so for 16 with little-to-no sunlight you'll end up needing a 24kWh battery. This is a pretty huge battery.
Saving money on the electricity bill and having improved resilience in a power outage occurs even without batteries.
Panels are like 1/3 the cost of a normal home solar system. With this plug in your AC in the summer and Resistance heater in the winter and even though you’re losing money when nothing is using that 1.5KW the dramatically lower install costs probably make up for it.
Batteries are obviously better for outages, but you could also plug this into a generator and save on gasoline when the sun is shining.
My whole system is off grid. I run 12v lights and even have a redundant battery system. You can do lot with cheap Chinese parts.
Says "100% Off Grid Solar Air Conditioner" I've no idea how good it is.
How about a device you roll out into your yard and fold out some giant panels to charge your ev. You get to benefit from cheap solar without dealing with getting a bunch of laborors up in your roof, and negotiating with the power company.
https://news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-environment-science-and...
from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37934146
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https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41431901 - Sept 2024 (2 comments)
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I’d be surprised if its share of energy generation doesn’t drop to practically zero. Why would we think it flattens out?
With some technology transitions there’s some benefit of keeping old technology around. But for coal and oil, there’s huge costs associated with digging/drilling the fuel out. Without the economies of scale that the oil, gas and coal industry has today I would be surprised if the whole thing doesn’t collapse completely in a fairly short time.
The costs are very variable. Some stuff is very hard to get to, some pretty much comes out on its own.