China is struggling. Low growth, high unemployment, huge debt from infrastructure spending, weakening capital markets and real estate...
For 2024 prediction is 2.6% US and 4.8% China. I don't see how it's low compared to US.
> high unemployment
5.1% China vs 4.1% USA
> huge debt from infrastructure spending
What do you mean by "huge" and compared to whom? The U.S. is currently running a $2 trillion deficit per year, which is about 6% of GDP, with only a fraction allocated to investments.
> weakening capital markets and real estate
China's economy operates differently from that of the U.S. Currently, China records monthly trade surpluses ranging between $80 billion and $100 billion. The real estate sector indeed presents challenges, leading the government to inject funds into local government to manage the resulting debt. The effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen.
There is a lot of wishful thinking on HN regarding the rivalry between China and the U.S
The real questions are: can China deliver on long term expectations for its economy? Do the trends support the argument that it will become a leading developed economy? I don't think they do. If they don't, then is it an issue with the current economy plan that can be solved with a better plan or is it a systemic issue that can't be solved in the near to medium term? These are way more useful questions than "who's going to win the race?"
>> Low growth
> For 2024 prediction is 2.6% US and 4.8% China. I don't see how it's low compared to US.
China is growing slower than historically and slower than forecasts which were it at 5%. Look at this chart and tell me if it points a rosy picture or a problematic one: https://img.semafor.com/5378ad07f43bc81f65ab92ddc19ec5899dc9...
>> high unemployment
> 5.1% China vs 4.1% USA
Again, comparing China to China, it's generally increasing every year: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/chn/chi...
Youth unemployment is basically skyrocketing: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/chn/chi...
>> huge debt from infrastructure spending
> What do you mean by "huge" and compared to whom?
To answer in reverse: yes, the US also has a debt problem. That doesn't make the China problem less of an issue. The china debt crisis has been widely reported and is related to the other point about real estate. Those articles will definitely do a better job of explaining the issue than me, so here's just one: https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/chinas-risky-answer-wa...
> There is a lot of wishful thinking on HN regarding the rivalry between China and the U.S
I'm arguing there's no rivalry. Different countries, different problems, different scales entirely. China is in dire straits and I don't expect it to recover before the crisis gets worse.
USSR was a centrally planned economy, China is not. Do you mean subsidies (like the IRA and CHIPS Act in the US) for certain industries, which act as guidance to local governments and state banks? Is that what you call "centrally planned"?
> can China deliver on long term expectations for its economy? Do the trends support the argument that it will become a leading developed economy? I don't think they do. If they don't, then is it an issue with the current economy plan that can be solved with a better plan or is it a systemic issue that can't be solved in the near to medium term?
That's your opinion that they can't, and it's your right to have one. There were people 10 years ago saying exactly what you’re saying now. Time showed they were wrong.
Here is a famous article: https://hbr.org/2014/03/why-china-cant-innovate
And here we are 10 years later:
https://itif.org/publications/2024/09/16/china-is-rapidly-be...
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/06/12/...
> China is growing slower than historically and slower than forecasts which were it at 5%. Look at this chart and tell me if it points a rosy picture or a problematic one:
Oh come on, 4.8% vs. 5%? As for the chart, it's the most incredible growth in the history of mankind. No country has achieved something like this. It's fully natural for it to decline in percentage terms, especially when another major power is implementing legislation to curb that growth, forcing capital outflows, imposing technology embargoes, etc.
> China is in dire straits and I don't expect it to recover before the crisis gets worse.
Time will tell. What I can say is that over the last 20 centuries, in 18 of them, China was the cultural and technological center of the world. So from China’s perspective, what they are doing now is just returning to their natural state. In comparison, the US is only 2 centuries old. Every human organization, whether a company or state, will sooner or later be surpassed by another human creation, there are no exceptions to this rule in all of human history. We have had many empires throughout our history. The Roman Empire was even greater at its peak than the US is now, and there were also the British Empire, the Spanish Empire, etc. Where are they now? Everything is cyclical. All of these empires lasted a few centuries and started to decline after around 200-250 years, much like the US now.
> I'm arguing there's no rivalry.
Come on, there is obvious rivalry. Just listen to US political elites and look at their actions—legislation. It's all about geopolitics and global influence to secure their own interests.
It's a major mistake to underestimate your competition.
That's a long ways out. We're barely past the first innings of the chatbot revolution and it's already struggling to keep going. Robotics are way more complex because physics can be cruel.
Show me what was possible 20 years ago versus what we can do now. I think you have enough imagination to envision what might be possible 20 years from now.