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>no reason whatsoever why it couldn’t hit $1M, $1B, or go back to $1

Not entirely true. The value is driven by number of people invested x average amount they have invested. Most of the historic increase has been as the number of people involved increased. Currently that's probably in the 100 - 200 million people range. It could 10x from here to $1M per bitcoin but is unlikely to go to $1B or $1.

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What do you think the number of people and average amount they have invested is based on? I’m saying it’s based purely on emotion and speculation. It could be a sunny day so people feel good and put more money into Bitcoin. That’s quite different from egg prices skyrocketing after chickens get bird flu or stock price skyrocketing after an amazing earnings report or the dollar skyrocketing because of a fast growing economy.

It's changed in fairly predictable ways - the number of people grows fairly stably and the price goes in roughly four year waves, up something like 5x or more then down 85%. So there's emotion and speculation but in a kind of consistent way in practice.

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