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Comment by richrichie | Hacker News Reader

Kelly et al took similar approach to trading. The idea was that human traders looked at charts on the screen and “intuitively” made trading decisions.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3756587

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I've also heard of converting stock data into sound, to try to listen to it as music so you can sort of intuitively use the audio part of your brain to predict where the stock market will go next. It's such an obvious idea I'm sure some large investment institutions have tried this. But I bet it failed, because music tends to lock into certain notes, and jump octaves in ways that markets definitely do not!

This conjures up an image in my mind of a million monkeys with headphones on, smashing at Blooomberg terminals.

How dare you insult monkeys. :0 lol. They have better short term memories than humans, per 2007 study by Tetsuro Matsuzawa and colleagues at the Primate Research Institute at Kyoto University in Japan.

Monkeys aren't (yet) interested in spending a lot of money on Brioni suits.

If you had a million monkeys commanding substantial enough funds it doesn’t matter what you model as the market will react to your moves. Which you can then anticipate and profit further from. Show them an image of a rotting banana, they all panic sell, then the puts your orangutans bought and the calls your capuchins sold will be looking pretty.

Logically it wont be long until we all have our own micromodels instead of hedge fund managers. Trained on random factors that have seemingly no relation to anything at all, but the correlation absurdly strong from the market. With enough data collected and compute getting cheap enough such a model is certainly possible. I bet us in the peasant class won’t get to leverage it when it comes out of course.

I agree. AI is going to be (or already is) able to not only predict markets, but also uncover and plan strategies to MANIPULATE markets as well, thru both legal and illegal means.

Here's an example: https://rnsaffn.com/cot4/

That's large-scale prediction of trader positioning changes in most of the big commodity futures and options markets.

Perhaps, Renaissance has been doing this all along. Just that they had data and compute in times (80s and 90s) when most have not heard of these things.

In the end, one needs a small edge and thousands of low correlated trades to take advantage of LLN.

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