Want pricing to go down then we need to build more dense housing even an hour drive from the city. The days of wanting a big backyard are coming to an end for most home owners.
You can't really run power tools in dense housing, correct? Or fix stuff yourself? Sounds awful.
To each their own though. I definitely grew to understand that if someone was raised in rural or suburban life, it would be extremely hard to adjust to hardcore city life, and vice versa. But I don't think we should be blocking build ups for one, if there's demand.
There are lots of benefits to density. Our grocery store and day care are less than ten minutes away on foot, because there's a ton of people so we can support these kinds of businesses (also weed, hair salons, bars, cafes, boutiques, secondhand stores, restaurants, play cafes, etc etc.)
You need mass transit and transport integration. House density can only move you so far (and it's not very far).
Up to some point, and it's not even that high...
What really makes mass transit viable is integration.
When demand starts slowing down or supply is caught up (it's happening everywhere outside of Tokyo in Japan, and somewhat in HK and other places as well), they stabilize or go down.
Many current homeowners have their wealth in their home, they want it to (in some cases) to continue to out-perform the S&P 500. Since they live there, they bully the local governments to not allow more building so there is less supply to compete with their asset. State and federal agencies are going to have to step in at some point to incentivize local governments to upzone. Not even mentioning this isn't remotely sustainable as a tax base in most instances, because subdivisions and infrastructure to deal with the sprawl this a bill that will come due in a harsh way making higher property taxes inevitable pricing out many of the people that were in. The #1 reason people are fleeing California and New York is due to costs...and in turn they are about the lose electoral power in Congress and Electoral college.
In a related phenomenon, people will pay more to be around better neighbors (which you can see reflected in price differences across similar houses in similar areas but in different school catchment areas). It makes some sense that people will pay as much as they can to be in a better area with better kids when you look at the state and direction of public education. If you can't afford private school, that's basically your only lever to try to buy quality. If you can, you still have a tradeoff that you could spend ~13k/yr/kid on tuition or add 200k/kid to your home budget to live in an area with better public schools. Living in a more affluent area carries other QoL benefits as well of course.
- We clearcut 95% of US timber, now the remaining 5% is in states like Oregon, Washington and Idaho. Some wood is an order of magnitude more expensive or simply unavailable, with prices held artificially low by importing wood and deforesting Canada, for example.
- Good, fast, cheap (pick any two). We build homes good and fast, but little effort is being made to reduce costs by an order of magnitude by using materials like hempcrete.
- Zoning laws have been changed so that row houses and 3-4 story apartments can be built right up to the road, maximizing profits but externalizing urban decay. High price/low value.
- The US adopted a service economy when it sent 100,000 factories overseas under the GW Bush administration in the 2000s after Clinton signed NAFTA in the 1990s. Now a smaller fraction of the population does the work of building homes, with most everyone else pushing paper, so charges what it wishes.
- People with high carbon footprints had more children. Bigger houses for high consumers left less housing for thriftier people.
- Garages, lawns and commuting wasted immeasurable resources after we could/should have transitioned to sustainable energy and transportation in the 1980s but chose to double down on the nuclear family, trickle-down economics, etc.
- The cost of those unnecessary roads was factored into property taxes, driving home prices higher.
- Nearly unlimited financing was available for home loans, while almost none was devoted to startups and other disruptive industries. We got what we paid for (McMansions instead of, I don't know, 3D printed homes).
- Modern techniques were almost never adopted into building codes. So rather than running wiring conduit through walls or encouraging similar practices to make additions and remodeling easier, we encouraged tearing down and building from scratch, which wasted countless trillions of dollars.
- The tax system doesn't value trees, existing structures, previous money spent on remodels, etc. So developers profit from bulldozing homes and razing lots in a day to build houses in a month. The human and environmental cost of that can never compare to moving homes, remodeling them, etc.
- Our culture and entertainment tell everyone they need granite countertops and $50,000 gas guzzlers. Things are expensive because other people consume more and more and more with insatiable appetites and expectations.
- Wealthy people who could have steered our culture in a positive direction chose to do nothing. Or worse, actively encouraged extractive and vulture economic policies to enrich themselves further.1. bigger houses
2. a lot more equipment in it: electricity, plumbing, AC
3. zoning restrictions reducing supply to increase the value of existing houses; owners benefit from that, local government benefits even more from higher property taxes and also from permitting taxes
4. increase of demand due to different factors, like lifestyle changes (back then almost nobody lived on their own in a house, single people were very rare by comparison), unequally distributed immigration and internal migration to some cities)
5. very different and more expensive safety requirements for new houses
6. more expensive workforce building the houses
7. huge reduction in self-building houses and price gouging by the developers
and more
also 300 sqft condos.
sqft per person hasn't changed much since 1980s.
(I wanted to strangle Trump when he once commented that real estate in India and other parts of Asia, are still "undervalued"!)
Had no data for low/middle income countries, but thanks as well for reporting that it’s a global issue.