Article on this recently: https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2024/7/10/b...
An effective retaliation option, I guess kept in reserve, "just in case" retaliation is needed.
Article on this recently: https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2024/7/10/b...
An effective retaliation option, I guess kept in reserve, "just in case" retaliation is needed.
I know it's a mental shortcut and if we wanted to be precise it would quickly become unwieldy so just a quick note, also to self, that the Russians I know don't have and don't want to have anything to do with this, are fed up with what is going on and just want to live in peace.
Putin may achieve 80%+ support through rigged elections, but even without rigging, it's likely 60%+. So, it's not a simple dichotomy of the Russian people versus Putin - it's more complex.
That said, I also have Russian friends (many now former Russians) who passionately hate the current government and condemn its actions.
https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/news/declining-war-suppor...
This is the lowest support for the war in Russia since the beginning. I know the limitations of such polls but there is some truth behind them.
It would be good to hear how many that were in favor of ending the war because it's the right thing to do. Because it's unjust. Because it's an invasion of a sovereign nation. Not just "Because the sanctions make my butter too expensive".
The difference being that if the former number is over 50% that might mean the people would be for change, for new leadership and direction. If the latter is above 50 that just means people want cheaper butter. Perhaps wait a bit and try invading later. Or invade some weaker nation.
From a Russian perspective it’s not at all clear that it’s unjust; Ukraine was persecuting ethnic Russians and the initial claimed purpose of the war was to bring ethnic Russian regions back into Russia.
Tribalism is a powerful reality distortion force.
From what its current regime says for internal and external propaganda purposes.
It's just the regime's funhouse mirror presentation of that perspective.
There's no substance to the "Ukraine was persecuting ethnic Russians" line, in any case.
What matters is -- it's just plain delusional.
Edit: Not sure what the downvote is. It's factually true. I don't think that necessarily means it's a bad idea or that it's a red line that should be observed when all other red lines are obviously illusions.
Even 10 years ago this was no longer true. Putin completely quashed the oligarchy -- and what he succeeded in building in its place has been by far the strongest one-man system the country has seen since Stalin. The oligarchy will likely have some success in reasserting itself, at least for a while after he croaks/fades in a few years.
His eventual successor will quite likely be another similar leader.
You almost want to wish, right?
The problem with the system he created is that it can only be managed by someone very much like himself. But Putin's really quite unusual, both for Russia and when compared with virtually any leader we've ever known anywhere.
His "successor" will likely be an effective power vacuum, visible to the outside world as an open-ended period of instability. It's entirely possible (likely even) that the security agencies will try to someone up the flagpole again, at least for a while. But it's difficult to imagine that person having the actual battery of intelligence, skills -- and sheer force of will -- to run things the way Putin has.
See also: Такого как Путин - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zk_VszbZa_s
> regardless of the power he has, Putin is still a product of the system.
Yes, and the system in question is FSB, or vaguely siloviki in general, not the business elite. It's extremely decentralized.