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Comment by ConspiracyFact | Hacker News Reader

You appear to be referring to Gisele Pelicot. From an article on the crimes:

> Dominique Pelicot, 71, a retired electrician, has admitted to orchestrating multiple rapes of Gisèle Pelicot, 72, offering her to a steady stream of men he met in an online chatroom

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/gisele-pelicot-dominique-...

So you’re going from

>Man finds dozens of rapists online

>At least 20% of men would commit rape if they didn’t fear getting caught

Do you understand that there are millions of men with internet access in France?

The claim that 20% or more of men are closet rapists is vicious hate speech. You should be ashamed of yourself.

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Nobody claimed what you claim they claimed - as I suspect you know full well. The relevant section in the original report is called "Sensitivity, anger and misogynistic beliefs" (beliefs, not behaviours) and cites a few sources:

"Speckhard et al. (2021) found that 13.6% of incels reported some willingness to rape if they could get away with it, compared to respective samples of ~35%, ~20–25%, ~19% and ~30% of men in the general population (Malamuth, 1981; Palmer, McMahon & Fissel., 2021; Hahnel-Peeters, Goetz & Goetz., 2022; Young & Thiessen, 1992)."

What is that claiming if not what the article says it’s claiming?

That researchers found those percentages of men expressing some willingness to rape if they could get away with it in the cited studies. Not the same thing at all as being "closet rapists" or "abstaining only for fear of being caught" as you chose to frame it. Do you have some actual beef with the studies and their methodology or do you just want to vent about woke misandrists?

If you believe those figures you’re a misandrist. If someone referenced a study that “found” that 20-30% of African Americans would consider severely beating a white stranger if they thought they could get away with it, there is a 100% chance that you would dismiss the study out of hand as somehow fatally flawed. One hundred percent. This “finding”, along with your or anyone else’s acceptance of it, is outrageous and offensive.

Dude... 'If you believe X, you're stupid and here's a whataboutism about an unrelated but politically charged topic' doesn't really seem like a productive way to discuss research. May I suggest having your beverage of choice and a nice walk in your lunch break and to think back a bit on your university days when you presumably learned how researchers work and how to read studies? Also, maybe consider less insults and insinuations while you're at it.

Nope. The claim is absurd and damaging and you should be ashamed of yourself for entertaining it.

I think if you talked to more women about sexual assault, these numbers would not surprise you. I can’t speak to the validity of these stats in particular, but they don’t strike me as inherently absurd. (Unfortunately.)

Also, observe that half the US voting population just elected a rapist for president.

I’m not going to continue to engage with someone who finds it plausible that one in five men is a potential rapist. We’re done.

Seems both plausible and, given your oddly furious and ardent denials, that you are the one in five.

"lol ur a rapist"

Okay buddy.

These studies appear extremely interpreted here indeed. This is a window into this soft-science research that shows I guess how real the study reproducibility crisis can be. Already the variability in outcomes points to serious methodological and interpretation issues.

Malamuth 1981. https://spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540.... ..appears to get to the 35% by goalpost movement.

Palmer, McMahon & Fissel., 2021. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32089128/ ...asks another question, has a biased sample of respondents, and has another study objective, ie prevention, than getting to the percentage shown.

Hahnel-Peeters, Goetz & Goetz., 2022. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/14747049221141078 ...has this amazing nugget: surreptitiously testing men's rape likelihood to rape across varying levels of discovery. We found men, compared to women, reported a statistically higher likelihood to rape in both Studies 2 and 3: 48% compared to 39.7% and 19% compared to 6.8%

Young & Thiessen, 1992 https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1992-25748-001 ...isnt saying what our authors think is saying, IMHO.

I stop now, looking at these studies was particularly disheartening, this is not science. nothing can be done with this data I think.

As I recall, many (most?) of the rapists were from the vicinity.

Citation? Even if that’s true, that’s what, 50 out of maybe 50000?

Nah, sorry, i expressed myself poorly. What i meant to say is that you never know who is a rapist until he is in position to do it. Just look at the list:

Jean-Luc L., 46, carpenter in a mirror factory;

Patrick A., 60, unemployed;

Patrice N., 55, electrician;

Christian L., 55, firefighter at the Valréas fire station, participated in the rapes while in uniform. Examination of his computers revealed 728 child pornography images and a Skype negotiation with a resident of Metz to allow him to rape her sedated 15-year-old daughter;

Philippe L., 62, gardener;

Cyril B., 46, truck driver;

Lionel R., 44, salesman;

Jacques C., 72, retired;

Cyprien C., 43, truck driver;

Thierry P., 54, unemployed;

Joan K., 26, soldier in the 511th Train Regiment, allegedly raped Gisèle Pélicot on the day of her daughter's birth;

Simone M., 43, former alpine hunter, temporary worker in construction;

Nizar H., 40, unemployed, convicted eight times, including for domestic violence against two ex-partners;

Jean T., 52, employee;

Cédric G., 50, IT specialist, planned to drug his own partner to deliver her to Dominique Pélicot;

Saifeddine G., 36, truck driver;

Paul G., 31, employee in the food industry;

Thierry P., 61, refrigeration technician;

Mahdi L., 36, transport employee;

Jean-Marc L., 74, retired;

Charly A., 30, temporary forklift driver;

Vincent C., 42, carpenter, previously convicted of driving under the influence and domestic violence against his ex-partner;

Husamettin D., 43, laborer, convicted twice for drug offenses;

Nicolas F., 42, local correspondent for a regional newspaper. Examination of his computer revealed 4,284 images and 262 child pornography videos;

Didier S., 68, retired;

Karim S., 40, IT specialist, admitted to penetrating his former partner while she was asleep and is being prosecuted for possession of child pornography;

Dominique D., 45, former foster child, former military, truck driver, convicted once for drunk driving, accused of raping Gisèle Pélicot six times with Dominique Pélicot between 2016 and 2020;

Redouane A., 40, unemployed, convicted 19 times, including once for domestic violence;

Cendric V., 43, restaurant manager, convicted six times, including 5 for drunk driving;

Andy R., 37, unemployed, alcoholic, convicted twice for domestic violence against his ex-partner;

Quentin H., 34, former police officer, prison guard at Pontet Prison;

Abdelali D., 47, under guardianship;

Florian R., 32, delivery driver, convicted nine times for various offenses (traffic, theft, receiving stolen goods, drugs, etc.), had sexual relations with a 14-year-old minor in 2020;

Redouan El F., 55, nurse;

Grégory S., 31, plasterer;

Fabien S., 39, unemployed, seventeen convictions on his criminal record, including one for sexual assault of a 15-year-old minor;

Jean-Pierre M., 63, driver, father of six children, allegedly "trained" by Dominique Pélicot to rape his wife in the same way, the only accused not prosecuted for sexual offenses against Gisèle Pélicot;

Mathieu D., 36, store employee, volunteer firefighter;

Omar D., 36, maintenance worker;

Boris M., 37, operations agent, convicted twice;

Romain V., 63, HIV-positive since 2004, accused of raping Gisèle Pélicot without a condom six times between December 2019 and June 2020;

Cyrille D., 54, construction worker, author of one of the films where Dominique abuses Gisèle Pélicot;

Adrien L., 34, site manager, sentenced to 18 years in prison for rape and violence against his former partners. His criminal record also includes a conviction for repeated threats;

Mohamed R., 70, retired, convicted in 2017 by the Gironde Assize Court for raping his own daughter when she was under 15;

Ludovick B., 39, storekeeper;

Jérôme V., 46, store employee, volunteer firefighter until 2016, followed for a time for sex addiction, accused of raping Gisèle Pélicot six times between March and June 2020;

Ahmed T., 54, plumber, accused of raping Gisèle Pélicot on the night of June 4-5, 2019, while she was tied up;

Hassan O., 30, unemployed, convicted 13 times for theft, drug trafficking, and violence. On the run, he is the only accused to be tried in absentia.

The correct way to read that list is "48 names that remain after a pimp sought them out and confirmed their strong interest."

Trying to extrapolate that to "men in general" requires either incompetence or malice. It'd be like arguing that almost all right-handed people are horrible murderers, after looking only at people living in "death row" prison cells.

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