But that is usually not what happens in the software space, especially for software that is expensive to build. Google still has its lead. About $200B in search revenue per year and still growing. Google's overall margin is 32% and the search business probably has an even higher margin.
Tesla has a good shot at becoming the first company to have a self-driving software that can run on vision alone.
The numbers show it, the few that Tesla releases about FSD are not up to the level with Google. If it was good, Tesla would be transparent with their results.
If we get a human level AGI with vision as high dynamic range as ours then maybe we can match human driving performance.
Seems easier to use radar and lidar at that point!
Vision might be viable in an unknown future (which tesla is very good at seliing), but right now it is very dumb to forbid yourself extra data.
ability that only a vision-lidar fusion
would match, not vision only
After all, we made machines perform on a superhuman level in many areas already. You could have said "A machine will never be able to move as fast as a human unless it has two legs and feet". But that is not how it turned out.
I remember people saying computers will never beat humans in chess because they don't have intuition.
> After all, we made machines perform on a superhuman level in many areas already. You could have said "A machine will never be able to move as fast as a human unless it has two legs and feet". But that is not how it turned out.
Yes, thanks to wheels. Robots with legs do exist; but none of them is close the speed of an average human running. That's my point. We are not gonna do better than human vision by simply taking 2 cameras thinking it is equivalent to a human eye.
How well cars will be able to maneuver with cameras and superhuman intelligence specialized in this task is yet to be seen.
Maybe we could try to find dashcam videos of self-driving cars causing accidents. Then one could form an opinion if the camera footage will be enough for future versions of the software to correctly assess what is on it.
Here is one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jcj-1hNwPiw
The crash is at 1:08
To me, it seems entirely possible to understand the situation from the camera footage alone.
Sometimes it is easier, far simpler and even superior not to mimic nature. Consider if it is even possible to have supersonic flight by mimicking flapping of wings.