I hope that they will, but the engineers at SpaceX have made me a believer. If the gen 1 direct to cell sats don’t perform (it seems like they do), they’ll just launch another batch a couple weeks later. I don’t think AST will have this ability, so I hope they get it right.
In the US SpaceX just announced a contract with Tmobile, AST has contracts with Verizon and AT&T
For service it works, and for business viability AST just has to launch more satellites, which they will
for a business case thats their only overhead cost and they dont need cellular partnerships in a bunch of countries to be viable
They have to raise capital for more satellites but it all looks possible
It takes longer with the dollar amount being so large, but SpaceX has a real advantage of 1) being vertically integrated 2) having customers buy the rockets and 3) having expertise and ability to iterate very quickly on satellite designs. I don’t know of a single company that can compete with them on #2 and 3 right now.
My prediction is that SpaceX satellites will perform better in the real world due to the density they’ve built up, and they will be able to partner with 3rd parties for much cheaper. I’m not saying that’s what will happen, but I’m pretty blown away by what they’ve been able to do so far.