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Comment by bdangubic | Hacker News Reader

west can compete. unlike byd’s, which get bricked all the time without infrastructure to maintain and repair them, west (and japan even more so) build cars that last. this is china we are talking about, the last thing I want is a car made by them… :)

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People used to say the same things about things made in Taiwan, then Japan, and then China, for things like electronics and white goods. It was true - until suddenly it wasn't.

In engineering you ultimately have to build stuff. Over, and over, and over again. You'll mess it up a lot at first, and then one day you'll realize that you haven't.

China is not stuck in 1965 trying to make an EV out of a saucepan and a backyard forge. They learn, and they keep trying. They have a domestic market that their government allows to be used as a test bed for everything they are doing, which sounds more coercive than it really is, especially given the fierce Sino-centric patriotism they have.

If Xi can last another 20 years without a palace coup, or manage a smooth transition of power that does not whipsaw policy, the West is in serious trouble.

Yeah but Japan has long had a cultural obsession with delivering high quality products. I don't know if China ever did, but if it did, much of it was wiped out during cultural revolution and replaced with succeed at all costs.

And there is a difference between success and excellence.

For example there have been zero bullet train fatalities in its entire history, and several Chinese HSR fatal accidents already. For political reasons the quality of the HSR wheels in China took a sharp downturn so expect more accidents in the coming two years.

Japanese-American here. This is revisionism. Japan was absolutely known for low quality products in the past. Probably the best "pop-culture" reference to this is "Back to the Future" when Marty travels back in time to 1955 and shows Doc a Made in Japan product (camera, I think?) Doc says its junk because its Made in Japan, but Marty sees it as high quality because its from the 80s.

Thats correct but it's hard to argue that it isn't a postwar blip in Japanese history as many companies of renown have lineages spanning both sides of the war, producing high quality product, anyways it feels like more than your median country.

Obviously quite literally survivorship bias, but since that's literal, it counts.

Japanese cameras became popular with pros during the Korean War precisely because they used high-quality materials and had great quality control. A good Leica was still better at the time, but you were much more likely to get a good Nikon.

Please show the news of several Chinese HSR fatal accidents, except the 2011 wenzhou hsr accident which happened during the early days of operation that everyone knows about, and it has been a decade since.

"For political reasons the quality of the HSR wheels in China took a sharp downturn so expect more accidents in the coming two years." if this doesn't happen, are you going to apologize for your lies, propaganda, defamation?

There was one as recently as 2022 in rongjiang. And yes it was a natural disaster, but do remember that the bullet train operated during the tohoku earthquake with a derailment but no fatality.

IIRC there were three derailments in 2020, I'm not certain any of them caused fatalities.

> except the 2011 wenzhou hsr accident.

Reminder. Bullet train: zero fatalities. Even during the "early days". No excuses. How to be safe is a solved problem since the last century.

> wheel issues

There are leaked videos of HSR in china shaking.

As someone from Australia, which hasn't shut its self off from the China EV market. I drive a BYD Dolphin. You should be worried. They are cheaper, and more full-featured than European equivalent. They aren't junk.

Also, they aren't the only big player from China. Australia is soon getting GAC/Aion, Geely, Jaecoo, Leapmotor, Deepal, Xpeng.

Here is an article if interested. https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/which-chinese-car-bran...

Does Australia ask manufacturers to setup factories locally? I always think it's a good idea for employment and perhaps technology transfer. I don't know why Canada is not doing that. Getting a couple of big car factories could be huge for the locals. That's thousands and thousands of employment.

Australia had a domestic car manufacturing by Ford and GM - popular V8 rear wheel drive sedans on their own platforms but the govt decide to stop protecting the industry and Ford and GM was also not willing to invest money in manufacturing is such a low volume market and little export potential.

There were many terrible electric cars out of China for years. Every province had its own little EV manufacturers. China's car industry is less concentrated than the US, but the big players are winning.

BYD is only the 9th largest carmaker in China. SAIC, Changan, and Geeley are the top 3. SAIC and Changan are state-owned, but Geeley is private, as is BYD. SAIC makes about 5 million vehicles a year. General Motors, over 6 million. BYD, around 3 million. Tesla, a little less than BYD.

Reviews of newer BYD cars are quite favorable. It's not like five years ago, when China's electric cars were not very good.

BYD has a simplified design for electric cars. The main component is the "e-axle", with motor, axle, differential, and wheels in one unit. There's a power electronics box which controls battery, motor, and charging. And, of course, the battery, made of BYD lithium-iron-phosphate prismatic cells. Talks CANbus to the dashboard and driver controls. BYD offers this setup in a range of sizes, up to box truck scale.

BYD and CATL are spending huge amounts of money to get to solid state batteries. The consensus seems to be that they work fine but are very hard to make. The manufacturing problems will probably get solved.

(Somebody should buy Jeep from Stellantis and put Jeep bodies on BYD E-axles. Stellantis is pushing a terrible "mild hybrid" power train with 21 miles of electric range, and an insanely overpriced all-electric power train. Stellantis prices went through the roof under the previous (fired) CEO, and sales went through the floor. Jeep sales are way down, despite customers who want them.)

it will take years before they can prove that their cars are made to last. I won’t be lining up to buy them but in 5-10 years perhaps

Kia/hyundai went through that phase already, and just got through it with absurd 10 year warranties when they first came out. China could do the same in the states, although I think they will have enough traction in SEA/Africa/Russia//Australia by then that they won’t have to.

Mine comes with a 5 year warranty, and a 7 year battery replacement warranty. I'm fine with not waiting.

Well, not sure how enforceable will it be, time will tell.

There are some not so good portents:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ducsx9jbsgc

does it also say it is OK to wait 8 months for warranty replacement or 11 months for battery replacement? :)

Chinese cars used to have lots of quality problems because they didn’t embrace automation, afraid that would take away jobs (Toyotas made in China 12-15 years ago were notoriously bad compared to ones made in Japan/usa). But in the last ten years, they’ve gone full speed ahead on it, as aggressive as the Japanese, and the quality increases are really noticeable. It’s not just a tech upgrade, they’ve really changed the way they are thinking about manufacturing (not just a jobs program).

> BYD is only the 9th largest carmaker in China. SAIC, Changan, and Geeley are the top 3

Protip: when you calc Chinese numbers, be sure to lookup the latest data. 1 year or 2 means landslide difference.

SAIC sales dropped > 11% and profit down by 27% in the first two quaters 2024. Think about that for a second.

BYD sold over 500k cars last month:

https://cnevpost.com/2024/11/01/byd-sales-oct-2024/

That's up over 60% year on year. If they are not already the largest carmaker in China they will be very soon.

This can't be a serious take, right? Chinese consumers don't expect much less when it comes to maintenance and repair. And given their 3M+/year vehicle production output, they're not a small player.

reach out to countries that sell these cars, find people on social media and/or if you have them in real life or travel… these cars are absolute garbage

not sure what your perspective is based on. gi your persistence, it seems it's likely not rooted in actually talking to these people, but perhaps some slight unconscious bias?

most of the things you use in your kitchen and also your device. you're typing this on were manufactured in China

I had the pleasure of seeing one in Mexico recently. If this car is garbage, sign me up! But alas, it's impossible because we decided that since we can't compete we'll just make them essentially illegal.

I got a chance to ride in several Chinese EVs recently and was incredibly impressed. They looked great, were comfortable to ride in and felt well made. And the drivers all seemed very happy with them. I would definitely consider buying one if they were available in my country.

Do you have any data about that? I have only heard the opposite from owners and it sounds a lot like the things Americans used to say about Japanese cars prior to getting stomped by them in the 80s.

two friends in russia, traveled to mexico twice this year, boss from australia… story after story after story always the same, amazeballs for X number of days and then get bricked, interior issues, steering …

I have a chinese EV (GMW, not BYD.) I am a very happy owner; huge features for the price. I am not sure i can see buying of a "mainstream" manafacturer again. (My country has no tarrifs/no domestic car building.)

your iPhone is manufactured in China :). your view is very outdated, or maybe even willfully. I'm sure they're plenty capable

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