Why the next leaps towards AGI may be "born secret"
roadtoartificia.com
roadtoartificia.com
Their number one recommendation was that Congress establish a "Manhattan Project-like program dedicated to racing to and acquiring an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) capability".
There's a lot to say about this, which I cover in the piece.
The word "may" is doing a great deal of work in your headline.
I don’t care who is researching this, we won’t have AGI by 2027 and super intelligence by 2030s.
> Based on trends in AI capabilities research since GPT-2, we are on course to expect AGI by 2027. Once AGI capability is available, if labs focus on automating AI research itself, progress in AI should accelerate. If similar progress can be achieved as the phase from GPT-2 to GPT-4, or GPT-4 to AGI, we should expect Superintelligence before the end of the decade.
The US is withdrawing from its global cop role. Russia and China are saber rattling. NATO may be dissolved by Trump, at least the American side of it. Israel and Saudi Arabia are new strange bedfellows and allies. Japan and India are vastly increasing their military spending, and Japan will likely arm itself with nuclear weapons. Sunnis and Shiites are nearing a war. Turkey wants to throw its weight around regionally. International trade is very likely to be strongly disrupted and production nearshored.
We are entering "interesting times".
The Five Eyes may cooperate. Maybe.
On this point - check out Matthew Pines on his view that over the next year the US will force allies to convert treasuries and gold to US century bonds, with the stick being a threat of being left outside the US security and technology alliance system. The conversion being a way to deal with the big overhang of US short-dated debt.
The world is changing fast.
That certainly may be true! Or perhaps, the cost of not collaborating is now too great to ignore.
Whereas with AGI loads of companies are already on it and there isn't really reason to believe that a government entity would get there faster.
The Kamala "broadband" project did cost $42 billion to taxpayers and not one home has been connected with this new program. In nearly four years. Zero. Meanwhile StarLink is actually connecting people.
Be it NVidia, OpenAI, Meta, Google, etc. all the models are coming from private companies. The government metastasized and seems to be unable to do anything besides create more pointless public servants.
They could spent 1 trillion on this (what's 1 trillion when you spent $42 billion to not connect a single home to broadband? and what's a trillion when you're already 36 trillion in debt), I still don't think the US goverment could beat private companies. Too much bureaucracy. Too many people with the sole goal of making the government ever bigger.
Now on a positive note (I guess), I'll grant everybody that it's even less likely that AGI would from the EU bureaucracy.
It didn't, the money has not been spent yet.