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Comment by TrackerFF | Hacker News Reader

Man, Trump isn't going to shit about leaving NATO. He'll moan about some countries not spending enough, that's about it.

Leaving NATO would mean closing US-bases in Europe overnight, not getting valuable intel from partners in NATO, jeopardizing US defense deals, and a million other things.

As always, it's grandstanding from Trump to get some extra bucks from his allies.

US pulling out of NATO would likely embolden China to make a move on Taiwan. Seeing how much of the US economy revolves around technology, I really don't think there's any other option than to defend Taiwan, as it stands. Sure - Europe also depends on chips from Taiwan, but they'd also be swamped in the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

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I should start a running list of all the people who say "Trump isn't going to...!" and then how they act like it was all part of the plan when he actually does it.

Need two lists:

* People who say "Trump isn't going to...!" and then how they act like it was all part of the plan when he actually does it.

* People who say "Trump is going to...!" and the how they quietly stop mentioning it and move on to the next (bad) thing he's going to do when he doesn't do it.

I'll prepare my list.

You also need a list for things Trump attempts to do but ultimately gets stopped by more reasonable people in his administration.

The size of that list in his prior term is a lot larger than many people are comfortable with, and the purge of insufficiently loyal members from the party as well as loyalty tests for appointees suggests much of that list is now back in play.

his first term, despite all the clownery and drama, ended up being run of the mill republican politics. Why do you think things will be different this time?

Preparation and intent. I don't think Trump believed he would win the first time around and people in his first administration were either loyal and stupid or competent and not willing to carry out his most extreme orders. This time he is putting a team in place that is malicious and willing to do whatever he says. He also has the added incentive of all of his court cases and debt from court cases that he would love to make disappear.

I don't think that leaving NATO would necessitate closing US bases in Germany or Italy; it is my understanding that those bases are required (to be provided by the respective 'hosts') as a condition of the treaties which ended World War II.

Parties can withdraw from a treaty. There's such a thing as state sovereignty. :)

They can withdraw based on treaty itself or based on law of treaties (art 42)

What happens then of course only depends on what the sovereigns will want to do... In this case I'd presume it would not mean restarting WW2 after zillion years have passed. :-)))

They could, but such a withdrawal would be distinct from NATO membership.

That's what I was writing about.

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