The iOS devices you should support
empiricalmagic.com
empiricalmagic.com
For example every ~6 weeks Apple sell more iPhone 4S than total number of iOS 4 devices still in use.
The thing that annoys me most is Mac applications that don't support 10.6 any more even though that's shoudn't be hard at all as desktop APIs are quite stable and don't change much. Or applications that support full screen only on 10.7. (Seriously, Evernote?)
Now, like on iOS, it's just a few lines of code.
Take a look at these links:
http://gentlebytes.com/2011/08/view-based-table-views-in-lio...
http://gentlebytes.com/2011/08/view-based-table-views-in-lio...
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http://oleb.net/blog/2011/07/whats-new-for-developers-in-lio...
http://oleb.net/blog/2011/08/whats-new-for-developers-in-lio...
http://oleb.net/blog/2011/08/whats-new-for-developers-in-lio...
Additionally, the UI is tons easier to correctly customize, making apps more colorful with less custom graphics, making apps smaller. This means more apps can be downloaded OTA, and apps can have more stuff in them before hitting the OTA limit.
Supporting iOS4 causes both of the above to be missing. I don't even want to talk about iOS 3, which makes it so you can't use ARC and Blocks, two of the things that make iOS dev much better today than it was 24 months ago.
http://support.apple.com/kb/HT1353
I suggest release date to figure that out.