We've seen it though, Mastodon's model is garbage, and they lost from the start. No one wants horrible Reddit style mods ego tripping over their own echo chamber. There is no future for Mastodon.
To the point of the article, the real question is if we'll see more atmosphere hosts (aka using a PDS other than Bluesky's) and more applications built on the protcol. And I think the real test will be if anyone ever builds their own relay that gets popular.
Bluesky's model is still better (more open, unbiased, harder to censor) than Mastodon/Threads/X by default, and yes it has a long way to go, but we've known that from the start.