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People always point to these things and say weight causes them, but no one ever considers these things may actually lead to people gaining weightHow did you conclude this? The evidence we have says obesity causes mortality [1].
> while I sit at a dinner table with friends and family eating significantly less than everyone and still gaining weight
Yes, this is metabolic syndrome. There is increasing evidence that some peoples' bodies will reduce base metabolism to compensate for reduced calorie intake or exercise, sometimes to the point of permitting starvation despite food intake, in an effort to conserve body fat.
Modelling nutrition thermodynamically is like trying to model flight with Newtonian dynamics. You can do it. But not in a practical way, and certainly not when it comes to edge cases.
> people are so committed to the idea of weight gain being a moral failing
Sorry you've experienced this. I've seen it too, in peoples' zero-information dismissal of e.g. Ozempic as a moral failing. (For disclosure, I've only dealt with weight gain as a cosmetic issue.)
Sun exposure causes melanoma. That doesn't make the beach evil. It just means that causation is established. It's not perfect. But if you're at risk of melanoma, knowing that causation helps. In the same vein, obesity causes mortality. That doesn't make being obese (or overweight) evil. It just means the causation is established. It's not perfect. But if you're obese, you and your doctors knowing that causation helps.
[1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2765728/