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Nvidia was not the best example. They get to moon in the case that any AI exponential hits. Most others have less of a wide probability distribution.

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I'm not sure about that. NVIDIA seems to stay in a dominant position as long as the race to AI remains intact, but the path to it seems unsure. They are selling a general purpose AI-accelerator that supports the unknown path.

Once massively useful AI has been achieved, or it's been determined that LLMs are it, then it becomes a race to the bottom as GOOG/MSFT/AMZN/META/etc design/deploy more specialized accelerators to deliver this final form solution as cheaply as possible.

Yeah they're the shovel sellers of this particular goldrush.

Most other businesses trying to actually use LLMs are the riskier ones, including OpenAI, IMO (though OpenAI is perhaps the least risky due to brand recognition).

Or they become the Webvan/pets.com of the bubble.

Nvidia is more likely to become CSCO or INTC but as far as I can tell, that's still a few years off - unless ofcourse there is weakness in broader economy that accelerates the pressure on investors.

I’d say it’s more about the fact that they make useful products rather than brand recognition.

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