Great writeup. I think prediction markets will break through when they figure out how to capitalize not only on collective judgment, but super-forecasting.

As currently formulated, prediction market outputs are just a fancy opinion poll, where participants have some incentive for accuracy. To rise above the simple wisdom of the crowds, you would want to identify the subset of market participants that are constantly beating the market (because they have a more accurate mental model of the world). I think this necessitates both 1) long term tracking of bets and 2) likely withholding individual positions from the market to prevent follower effects.

Similar to the title article, this raises the question of who the ultimate customer is prediction market is. Individuals can be incentivized to bet by winnings, but who else is the customer for aggregated data?

I wonder about the extent to which current prediction markets have internal outputs and derivative statistics, and what they might do with it.

If polymarket or similar companies put Trump vs Harris at 55-45, do they have internal statistics that that put the race at 80-20% among their most accurate betters? Was this data for sale?