Tariffs Won't Work, Just as McKinley's Didn't

I think the only people who can explain their rationale would be those people you’re talking about. We can wildly speculate (low regulation, pro business, etc), but domain experts broadly agree the tariffs in question would be detrimental to the US economy. I suppose we’ll have data from a natural experiment shortly. Will the data matter? Probably not.

I think the most likely option is that their support for Trump is not economically motivated.

Many of them believe Trump is bluffing and that the tariffs will be much more limited than what he campaigned on.

Andreessen holds major investments in many of the companies that will benefit. The paper says that tariffs make the US economy less efficient. Inefficiency == profit. An efficient market is one where prices are close to costs. Inefficient markets provide more profit to capitalists.

Because of Trump's planned tax cut renewal the profits of US companies should not only keep at current levels (whereas they were going to drop when tax cuts expired under Kamala) and even rise a little bit.

Making stocks rise is pretty much the purpose of the whole sector. Hence ...

One of the common meme answers is that a destroyed economy is easier and cheaper for an international megacapitalist to pick apart and buy up. The long-term profits and power from those acquisitions outweigh a decade or two of inconvenience and bad charts.

It can make more sense to buy pieces of a company during a bankruptcy firesale, instead of buying out that company as a bailout. In this case, the company is the USA.

EDIT:

Realistically, there's more blood to squeeze from the consumer stone - you can raise prices with the increased costs, and compensate by 'allowing' people to go far further into debt for longer.

Emotional reason: better to be a poor master than a rich slave.

Pragmatic reason: I'd like to see American workers get American wages.

Long Term reason: We need the ability to manufacture critical things at all times.

The tariffs let Trump push tax cuts. People want the tax cuts. The tariffs are just a way to say they’ll be paid for. (Dems do that same with deficit financing and ‘tax the rich’ schemes.)

There are also communities who don’t think tariffs will be reciprocated. If we truly engage in a trade war, American farming and car manufacturing will be in crisis—they’re overbuilt for a domestic-only market.

If I had to speculate…

For billionaires like Andreessen, it will be worth the very limited pain in order to see the destruction of the administrative and regulatory state.

They don't think it will actually happen.

Economists are as accurate as fortune tellers.

Regarding tariffs, they also predicted calamity from his first round, and that didn't happen in the US.

A dysfunctional government is more easily exploited by the rich. No one is less functional to be President than Trump.

He thinks his companies will get tariff exceptions because he curried favor. And he might be right!