Voyager 1 breaks its silence with NASA via radio transmitter not used since 1981
smithsonianmag.com
smithsonianmag.com
"NASA reconnected with Voyager 1 after a brief pause" (30.10.2024)
Think of all the problems we have instead: Boeing airplanes that need to be rebooted if their computers are up for too long, an Ariane 5 blowing up because using the old thing should be "good enough", Microsoft Windows on ATMs and vending devices that literally can't not have pop-ups. It's like we've ceded control of our ability to do things to "methods" that corporations insist upon, even though they've been proven worse.
Heck - if businesses had their way, would the Internet be run on Novell, with millions of Novell admins all around the world constantly needing to fuss with things just to keep it running?
It's nice to see when science takes priority to everything else, and the hardware reflects that.
It doesn't seem much worse then memory leaks in missle guidance tracking systems that exceed flight time. We have finite resources, if the effort to correct is minimal what's the harm?
So design systems that does not exceed those resources.
This seems sane given that the planes don't operate for 51 days constantly (I'm not in aerospace so please correct me, it seems a reboot could occur with refueling without issue)
Commercial aircraft need continual software updates to operate. They are, in a sense, living, breathing machines. Things like navigation and terrain databases are updated inside of 30 days.
Adding a scheduled reboot is one more item on a checklist that was already being run through.
It's counterintuitive, but performing a reboot as a scheduled maintenance item is far more risk averse than going in and touching code that has been otherwise thoroughly tested and signed off by regulatory authorities.
The chances of introducing a new bug when attempting to repair the former presents additional risk to what amounts to a convenience issue.
Also in case of emergency, eg after a power loss or whatever, you might have to do a reboot anyway. So you might as well make sure that this code path is well exercised.
I'd rather deal with a ground hog day of the system being for the millionth time in its first day of operation, than dealing for the first time with the system being in its millionth day of operation.
Having had to migrate a 12 year old dying server this weekend, yeah, I was 24/7 strongly cursing the idiot who didn't document anything[0]. On the plus side I did get to update a bunch of stuff to more modern practices.
[0] You will not be surprised to learn that idiot was me.[1]
[1] My other servers are much better - anything that hasn't yet been properly service'd has its own `RUNME.sh` which runs whatever it is in the correct way.
But equally, they dont do this 24x7 - if only because airport curfews and maintainence schedules won't let them.
Rebooting the computer when doing regular maintenance is no big deal.
> Usually planes are turned around too fast to be waiting for them to fully reboot every time they fuel.
To be clear, this affected the Boeing 787, a plane usually focused on long-haul between medium sized cities. It is incredibly rare to see a long-haul flight turned-around immediately. Normally, they have max two flights per days, and for longer routes, just one route per day. There was plenty of time to reboot. I don't think anyone was ever in danger.Also, I am starting to grow tired of "anything Boeing does is bad" on HN in the last 6-12 months. The Boeing 787 was a huge hit, both technically and commercially. (I would say the same for the Airbus A350.) I certainly never worked anything as important or cool in my career. The endless booing from the HN peanut gallery adds little new and/or useful information to the discussion. Yes, I expect to be downvoted for this last paragraph.
"Let's build something that we KNOW will catastrophically fail, because we deliberately ignore to take account limited resource availability of that system."
For a critical systems, that's just lazy and unacceptable.
That mentality at Boeing as, literally, costed many lives.
The harm is that nobody knows why there's a memory leak requiring a reboot (or if it's even a memory leak). What happens when that very same issue is combined with a rare case and causes the death of hundreds of people?
"Have you tried to turn it off and on again" may be fine for a $20 Internet-of-insecure-and-shitty-Thing bought on alibaba. Not so much when lives are at play.
> This condition is caused by a software counter internal to the GCUs that will overflow after 248 days of continuous power. We are issuing this AD to prevent loss of all AC electrical power, which could result in loss of control of the airplane.
> A simple guess suggests the the problem is a signed 32-bit overflow as 231 is the number of seconds in 248 days multiplied by 100, i.e. a counter in hundredths of of a second.
> I’ve gotten into a habit of identifying parts that, through experience, I know will fail or can fail and replaced them with ones that are all but guaranteed to outlive me.
Depending upon your NDA/security level, can you share a specific example? Maybe you see a steel/aluminum chain between gears that you know will wear out in X years, but could be replaced with something that is tungsten/titanium that will last for 5X years.So ultimately this means that if the argument is that the business is making the wrong decisions, then that means there’s an opportunity for someone to profit by proving them wrong.
I love Voyager but it also cost something like a billion dollars. So it’s a bit unsurprising that it is such a resilient system.
Well, it's a bit of back and forth between business and engineering.
> So ultimately this means that if the argument is that the business is making the wrong decisions, then that means there’s an opportunity for someone to profit by proving them wrong.
Generally yes, but sometimes it's hard because of double-sided network effects. The classic example being expensive but prestigious scientific journals:
All the scientists and funding agencies would benefit from moving to cheaper journals, but an individual scientist will try to publish their best work in the most prestigious journal they can get.
(And often the complainers mix in some good old paternalism, too: 'oh, those customers are ill-informed and the companies are exploiting them by tricking them into buying inferior products and getting trapped.' or some story like that.)
> I love Voyager but it also cost something like a billion dollars. So it’s a bit unsurprising that it is such a resilient system.
The money was necessary, but not sufficient. Compare the great performance of the Voyagers with the disaster that was the Space Shuttle program or the ongoing farce that is the International Space Station.
We have just been inculcated with this exploitation as a “natural” part of our capitalist system for so long, since childhood for most of us, that many have a knee-jerk reaction to shut down this line of criticism and not hear the simple solution. Many on HN have built a startup when they’re young, been part of the VC industry, akin to a music prodigy or young actor or model being “discovered” by “talent scout”, and sold a dream which only a few achieve. For every 1 person who makes it big, 1000 who do the same thing fail. But they keep licking the boots of the system hoping they’ll be among the lucky ones, so they better say nice things. If they see words like “utility tokens” they immediately think “grift”, when in fact the system they’re supporting has grift and exploitation built in. Having utility token holders buy out shareholders also may be an element in furthering SDG goals and “stakeholder capitalism”, and saving the planet. But hey, as soon as the words are uttered which may trigger pushback, the system starts to protect itself, in the form of downvotes or strawman attacks etc.
Yeah, planned obsolescence is one feature of corporate control and profit system. As is surveillance capitalism, or pollution, or pushing people to work long hours, or have a gig economy, neglect their kids, or having people in echo chambers be angry at each other online because anger and misunderstanding leads to more “engagement” etc. All the ways that represent gradual “enshittification” that Cory Doctorow coined, is not an accident. These are all negative externalities, which are all traced back to one main factor: the profit motive of shareholders as a core feature in the system, forever. The rents aren’t going to extract themselves.
Compare that to the tech industry. IBM itself can trace it's origins back to a data processing company about 140 years ago. They probably had the most natural evolution into a modern tech company because of those origins. Yet noone at the original mechanical tabulator company could have predicted what IBM would be producing 70 years later, nevermind a century later. Nintendo is roughly the same ago and is more-or-less doing the same sort of thing (gaming) but has gone from low-tech to high-tech so their path was not predictable. Yet those are abnormalities. Almost anything that old is an institution of some form (e.g. government or education). Perhaps the closest thing we had to predictable was Moore's Law, but that wasn't a pure law in the physics sense. It was reliable enough to build an industry upon for many decades, but it could have failed much earlier than it did due to hurdles in technological developments.
The other thing about Voyager is that its intrinsic value grew with time. While we could develop a mission that could go as far as it did faster, and have better instruments to conduct research, it would take decades to build the probe and get there. It also makes sense to support it to get what little data it can return to us because it would help us develop better missions when we do decide to go that route.
Exxon is a cute example though. At one point, they owned Zilog.
So sure those brands are 100 years old, but the underlying companies have been restructured several times with major mergers and spin-offs etc. ExxonMobil even did the baby bell thing of splitting off from a single entity only to merge again and again in the coming decades.
* Exxon: Massive amounts of technology have been ingested by the oil majors in the last 50 years. It is basically a high tech business at this point. Also, if we only focus on the physical work, fracking didn't exist 50 years ago, and now it is a major part of the industry. Again: Huge changes.
* Coke/Hershey: Think about how much automation exists in their manuf. Do any humans touch a "bottle" of Coca Cola before it is packaged? I doubt it in highly developed countries.
* Wells Fargo: the same as Exxon. Commercial banking has a fraction the number of employees _in proportion to their assets under management (AUM)_ compared to 50 years ago. How/Why? Automation / computers!IBM absolutely was in the punch card machine making business in that they were absolutely selling punch card machines and not data processing consulting. And no, they are not in the data processing business today. They are clearly a consulting company first with some software development bolted.
They actually pivoted twice from a mostly hardware company to a mostly software one and once again to a mostly service based one.
> it was designed to take advantage of something that predictably happens every couple of hundred years.
Can you explain this more? Does it mean something like a gravity assist based upon the location of planets when the launches were done?That said, it certainly includes our ability to use gravity assists when planning a mission.
You can buy long lasting stuff just fine, if you are willing to pay. You can get eternal licenses (or an outright sale of rights), if you are willing to pay.
It's all about trade-offs, and many people have priorities that are different from 'last as long as possible'. Eg many computers from the 1980s are still perfectly usable today, but who would want to use them? I'm sure you can probably also still use your old rugged Nokia phone today, especially since they had easily replaceable batteries. But who would want to use a 25 year old dumb phone?
There are some enthusiasts which do use these old devices. And it's great that they can do so! Never say corporations don't deliver!
But by and large people have different priorities than wanting their obsolete tech to live forever.
https://streetwave.co/mobile-networks/2g-switch-off-by-count...
Dumb phones are still being sold that are 2G only.
Not just that, but “landlines” are still being offered that are really a 2G phone restricted to work only in the vicinity of a home that's not (yet?) covered by actual landlines.
It's also used by emergency services.
It's considered a technology of last resort, and the service provider that wins the concession to provide it, with 100% coverage of a given area, probably finds it useful that it can meet the conditions with such tech.
3G has already shut down.
Things that uses 2G:
- Electricity meters
- Alarm systems
- Cooling and heating systems
- Rat traps (?)
- And an absolute crap-ton of early "IoT" devices.
And it's considered a backup network, with better coverage and range than 4G/5G. It also makes sense as the country is actively starting to remove the old landlines. The first cables are actively been removed from the ground.1G (NMT) and 2G networks have been used in forestry. Very often the machines are far from a mast and need the extra range to communicate.
And in general Finland is a sparsely populated country.
Ref: https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/media-communications-arts/...
Not for everything. When I can do that I do, but it’s getting harder and harder to avoid subscription fees for everything these days.
Take a subscription product that costs $10/mo right now as an example.
Let's say you want a license that lasts your whole life.
Estimate the time you have remaining in your life. Let's call it 50 years.
Now you can use an interest calculator to see how much it would cost to effectively buy a license until the end of your life.
Plug in $10/mo contribution, plus 4% annual interest to cover inflation and price increases, for an investment length of 50 years.
So you can effectively buy an "eternal" license for $18,714.61
I guess technology lasting a long time for specific non-commercial purposes is one thing, keeping up with modern society in general another.
It's not the fault of the phone's hardware that the world has moved on. But this underscores my point: if the hardware lasts longer than the eco-system around it, that's useless, and the company should have probably saved customers a few pennies by going with something less sturdy.
Adobe Creative Cloud (among many others) doesn't have that option.
I worked at a large project management app where we charged per-seat.
We only offered per seat pricing, yet we had at least 3 companies that had flat pricing because they wanted >100k seats.
Deals outside of standard pricing gets cut all the time.
But having an older version can be useful too because some features from previous releases may be missing in current ones, so that's a way to ensure access to the old files. A couple of years ago all the Pantone colours used in Photoshop just became black after an update because Adobe stopped licensing Pantone stuff.
Where do you buy long lasting stuff? This is a serious question, I'm looking for new appliances and I am willing to pay more, within reason.
Let's say I'd pay double of what an appliance with similar technical characteristics would normally cost, which I want to go towards higher quality materials, craftsmanship, and quality assurance. I expect such an appliance to work and and be economically repairable for at least 20 years.
As far as I can tell, this is nearly impossible. Many brands that used to produce higher quality products have downgraded the quality of their materials and craftsmanship in order to juice quarterly profits for investors. Their reputation seems to lag the quality of their products by about 10 years.
Miele is good for household appliances like washing machines and dishwashers. Kärcher is good for vacuum cleaners. There's lots of other German (and Swiss and Japanese etc) brands like that.
But in any case, I didn't (and can't) promise that you can get that kind of quality by merely paying double.
Btw, almost all cars these days last a lot longer than they used to, and with fewer repairs. Quality has gone up across the board. Planes also fall out of the sky less often. (And that includes Boeing, despite their recent troubles, their track record would be seen as unachievable good about 20 years ago.)
Would that 'twere so simple. Most previously reliable premium manufacturers have jumped on the enshittification bandwagon. You can get better design and a more exclusive branding if you are willing to pay more, but where exactly would you turn if you are looking, for example, for a dish washer that will just work for the next ten years? Preferably one that doesn't come with cloud integration. There are still a very small number of ultra-premium brands that really care about their customers, but apart from being way too expensive for most people, they are increasingly hard to find. One of the side-effects of so many companies trading their reputations for "shareholder value" is that trust is eroded for everyone, including those that still deserve it.
Miele works well for us.
I understand your complaint. I'm also sure it's really hard to get high quality buggy whips these days without paying through the nose, now that everyone has switched to these newfangled horseless carriages.
That's what I would have said as well, until recently. Last year we had to replace ours, and its been an absolute nightmare. Cost us endless hours of wrangling with technicians and customer service to have it installed and configured properly (and already repaired once). ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
We never had any issue with Miele in Singapore.
(The Australian customer service of Bosch was a joke, though. The one in Singapore seems competent, though.)
Where do you recommend I buy long-lasting refrigerators, washers, and dryers?
Building long lasting hardware makes a lot of sense when you expect to use that technology for a long time. I’m sure there was a time when people thought we’d be using steam power forever.
It makes less sense if the rate of technological innovations makes hardware or software obsolete every 5-10 years.
https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/voyager-spacec...
Especially for a first time in all of humanity type of mission, half a century ago, which yielded brand new data on faraway objects we'd never had, and considering it's still going and reporting data, it's arguably a bargain basement price for such a thing.
My point was the comparisons that are often made, to things like consumer electronics, really aren't apt.
Agile is a response to this, not the cause.
There is no such thing as "planned obsolescence". The trade-off is price vs quality. You can buy or source a hammer that will last you a lifetime, but will cost 10x the standard rate of hammer ... most people opt for the $20 option vs the $200 option, knowing full well, the $20 option may not last as long.
>Boeing airplanes that need to be rebooted if their computers are up for too long, an Ariane 5 blowing up because using the old thing should be "good enough", Microsoft Windows on ATMs and vending devices that literally can't not have pop-ups.
Couple things here:
1) None of those are examples of 'planned obsolescence'.
2) You really do not want to have every software application built the same way you build software for NASA. It would make software development incredibly expensive and slow.
3) I think everyone agrees that Boeing has major quality problems when compared with Airbus. But again, not an example of 'planned obsolescence', and it is not necessary for Boeing to build software like NASA builds software for the space shuttle, in order to produce quality airplanes (with quality software).
>if businesses had their way, would the Internet be run on Novell,
Huh? The software business is fully private. Most companies are not running on Novell because other businesses 'had their way' and competed.
We have that sort of- in open source by now. Basically the base implementation is free. But for more advanced extras you pay extra. Then the company providing the extras collapses and the extra becomes open source in one way or another.
Some other commenter mentioned we can have all these great long-lasting things if we "are willing to pay." We, the consumer my might be, but the manufacturer and distributer who makes the the product not only want to sell you something once, but want to sell it to you repeatedly while maximizing their profit margins. This would not be so bad if a good chunk of those yearly record profits reached the folks who were on the work floor actually making the product (thus allowing them to buy more expensive things) but instead, the money gets sucked up and stays up, while costs get passed on to the consumer who likely is not making enough to afford the longer-lasting version. Which, I guess is the point of Capitalism, in a nutshell.
I know of several ATMs that still run OS/2 2.1 or OS/2 Warp. They're a slow dying breed that is being replaced by Unix (Linux or similar), but they still exist. Chances are, if you're in Europe, and the ATM you're using is one of the "slow screen refresh rate" ones, it's still running OS/2.
But of you think logically from first principles, it makes no sense to have both an a320 and 737.
All this competition and “corporate greed” where we literally have two airplanes that are functionally identical rebuilt from the ground up is an huge, massive waste of human capital and enabled by the government through monopoly of copyright and patents.
While I think creators should get paid, I wonder if there is a better way to manage copyright that what we do.
I think the government granting this extreme of a monopoly on copyright is one of the weirdest things we tolerate.
There has to be a way where we can statutorily authorize copying at x% fee or something.
That way we don’t build two copies of the same thing!
No, I doubt it. The businesses that make all the hardware and software that powers the internet are perfectly fine with it being an open protocol.
It blows my mind that these are machines from the 8-track era. And they have fallbacks and redundancies that were completely ahead of their time.
NASA says the voyager mission cost 865 million dollars from the start in 1972 to Neptune encounter in 1989, and currently runs at 7 mllion dollars per year.
(based on number of taxpayers in 1989 -- using the numbers from 1972, it would be a low double-digit amount).
I imagine a lot of people who work on space missions do not outlive their work - which feels sad but also ... inspiring?
“In the demon-haunted world that we inhabit by virtue of being human, this may be all that stands between us and the enveloping darkness. I worry that, especially as the Millennium edges nearer, pseudoscience and superstition will seem year by year more tempting, the siren song of unreason more sonorous and attractive.”
jval43's quote puts it pretty well. It's not just that you're designing something to last, you're designing it not to fail. It also tends to help when you have a bunch of really smart folks from a number of disciplines working on the same problem.
With that said, you need to walk a fine line as far as the level of redundancy and fallbacks you put in place versus the overall SWaP (Space Weight and Power) of the system. I can go somewhat deeper into SWaP issues if you would like.
When it did not happen, I think they moved on to 2012 :)
And in the end, it turns out that something will happen in 1982 that just may—
No, no, read it for yourself. Read it carefully and you'll find it far more fascinating than the tale of any millionaire found stabbed in any library, locked or otherwise. And far more important, too especially if you live in California.
ISAAC ASIMOV
17 April 1974Wouldn’t it be possible to get a gravity assist in any alignment - albeit just taking a little longer to ping-pong across the system?
(Edit) Another thought, since you mentioned time—numerical computing power and the math required to exercise it have advanced greatly since the 1970s, and it's likely that some of the trajectories and maneuvers feasible (again with the same fuel budget) today, even if they took 100+ years to complete, weren't even calculable back then.
This is why Voyager 2 couldn't also do Pluto - it would have needed to change course by roughly 90º at Neptune, which would have required going closer to the center of Neptune than Neptune's own radius.
The most unusual gravity-assist alignment that we did was for Pioneer 11 going from Jupiter to Saturn. The encounters were separated by roughly 120º of heliocentric longitude. Pioneer 11 used Jupiter to bend its path "up" out of the ecliptic plane and encountered Saturn on the way back "down". Nowadays we wouldn't bother doing that (we'd wait for a more direct launch window instead), but the purpose of this was to get preliminary Jupiter and Saturn encounters done in time before Voyager's launch window for the grand tour alignment.
And, why didn't this vortical model that includes the forward velocity of the sun make a difference for Voyager's orbital trajectory and current position relative to earth? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42159195 :
> "The helical model - our solar system is a vortex" https://youtube.com/watch?v=0jHsq36_NTU
It also likely wasn't possible to get to Pluto on some future Pluto orbital pass. The limiting factor is likely that Voyager's incoming trajectory to Neptune was already too far beyond solar escape velocity to get into that narrow elliptical orbit you propose. (You'd have to slingshot so close to Neptune's center that you'd hit the planet instead.)
Designing from the beginning to come in slower to Neptune and adjust to encounter Pluto on some future Pluto orbital pass was probably possible, but yeah you might be talking about time scales of Pluto's entire orbit or even multiples of that. (We do similar things for inner solar system missions, like several encounters with Venus separated by multiple Venus-years, but that's on the order of single-digit years and not hundreds.)
The common answer to a lot of these outlandish slingshot questions is usually, yes it's eventually possible by orbital mechanics, but it gets so complicated and lengthy that you may as well just build another separate spacecraft instead. We talk about Voyager's grand tour alignment because it's captivating, but realistically if that hadn't happened we would have just done separate Jupiter-Uranus and Jupiter-Neptune missions instead.
The sun's motion relative to the galaxy doesn't matter for any of this - nothing else in the galaxy is remotely close enough to affect anything, the nearest star is still over 1000x Voyager's distance.
So there was no way to flip around and counter-thrust due to the velocity by that point in Voyager's trajectory (without a gravitationally-assisted slowdown or waiting for planetary orbits to align the same or in a feasible way)
FWICS; /? spirograph ... "Hypotrochoid" ... Hypotrochoid orbit
Aren't there hypotrochoid orbits to accelerate and decelerate using planetary gravity; gravity assist
Gravity assist: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_assist
- https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/10021/how-are-grav... :
> How can I intuitively understand gravity assists?:
> Aim closer to the planet for a lower pass for a greater change in direction (and velocity from an external frame of reference), farther from the planet for a smaller change; aim ahead of the planet for a slower resulting external velocity, behind for a higher velocity: gravity assist guide (image from this KSP tutorial)
- Vindication! KSP is what I probably would have used to answer questions like this; though KSP2 doesn't work in Proton-GE on Steam on Linux and they've since disbanded / adjourned the KSP2 team fwiu.
- JPL SPICE toolkit: https://naif.jpl.nasa.gov/naif/toolkit.html
- SpiceyPy; src: https://github.com/AndrewAnnex/SpiceyPy docs: https://spiceypy.readthedocs.io/en/stable/
- SpiceyPy docs > Lessons: https://spiceypy.readthedocs.io/en/stable/lessonindex.html :
- > various SPICE lessons provided by the NAIF translated to use python code examples
TY for the explanation.
Hopefully cost effective solar sails are feasible.
FWIU SQR Superfluid Quantum Relativity doesn't matter for satellites at Earth-Sun Lagrangian points either; but, at Lagrangian points, don't they have to use thrust to rotate to account for the gravitational 'wind' due to additional local masses in the (probably vortical) n-body attractor system?
If you are willing to launch four spacecrafts to visit four planets, the alignment restrictions are much relaxed. You do need to be careful about your launch window to get a nice boost, but it's measured in years between windows, not so much centuries.
IIRC the second probe was mainly intended as a backup to the first one, but visiting Titan and visiting Uranus/Neptune were mutually exclusive, and visiting Titan was higher priority, so if the first probe succeeded the backup could be (and was) sent on the four planet track.
It's the conversion of public property for pennies on the dollar. It's theft and graft, except it will be legitimized by the government and supreme court. And you'll never get it back, because that would be considered "nationalization" of private property.
It was Putin's playbook after the collapse of the (orchestrated?) collapse of the Soviet Union - and they're apparently reusing it for the US as well.
Oh, did I mention that Putin was democratically elected?
Was he? And even if he was, what the story with the bombings that greatly boosted his position? That man is as dirty as they get.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombi...
Even today, launch vehicles are shared between both crewed and uncrewed missions (Dragon uses Falcon 9, Starliner uses Atlas V), so a launch vehicle grounding due to a failure in one mission type absolutely can impact the other type too
It would definitely affect satellites, since the shuttle was a major satellite launch system. But even a deep space probe project like Voyager would be at risk, even though it seem directly related, because by affecting the political prestige of NASA, it effects everything that has to get funded at NASA – the politics of legislation are not bounded by rational direct impacts.
"The last time that {alignment} happened was when Thomas Jefferson was President, and he blew it."
Also fun to play with is: https://trajbrowser.arc.nasa.gov/index.php (example query with multiple flybys of outer planets - https://trajbrowser.arc.nasa.gov/traj_browser.php?NEAs=on&NE... )
There is perhaps unintended irony in that sentence, but it does evoke some Asimov stories in which human characters age while supporting technology.
“We didn’t design them to last 30 years or 40 years, we designed them not to fail,” John Casani, Voyager project manager from 1975 to 1977, says in a NASA statement.
And they are correct
At least on the programming part, having in mind the huge advances in computers since the Voyager was built.
Any professional computer programmer here knows more in their field than a programmer from 70's. A Voyager built today with similar resources would be much better, 100% guaranteed.
Voyager 1 was a fantastic machine done by a terrific team, but lets not pretend that the state of the art hasn't changed. Anybody with computer skills polished towards building a machine in 1977 would be basically unemployable for building a machine in 2024.
You might think, for example "waterfall, ewwww", but if you go back and re-read the first paper on waterfall development, it makes clear that waterfall development is in fact an anti-pattern. How many here are stuck on "modern" teams that think waterfall is a good idea, and yet those clueless old folks had figured out it was a dead end 50+ years ago.
One of the most critical aspects of managing software development is Conway's law. For distributed scalable systems, if you aren't thinking about Amdahl's law you're just a hacker and not actually an engineer. Check the dates on those papers.
They built incredibly sophisticated systems using incredibly primitive building blocks. If you honestly think they couldn't ramp up on PHP or Python or k8s, you need to spend a bit more time around some actual badasses.
This is really funny stuff, thank you!
Why? The first step today would be installing Discord[1], the second step would be updating code live 420 no scope[2], and the third step would be figuring out how many JavaScript abstractions are desired.
Why? Deep space radiation is only 4x the dosage compared to LEO. Starlink satellites use modern tech and they've spent >10,000 collective years in space since we launched more than 2 of them. The whole "modern electronics are more fragile" issue is overblown. The CPUs are tiny and easy to shield. The MMICs use huge features that you can see with a normal microscope.
"Modern electronics are more fragile" issue really is not overblown. One of my peers have tested different types of non volatile memory in LEO and the TLC NAND sample gets totally wiped by ionizing radiation within the first week. CPUs, while being mostly logic and less susceptible to low energy events, can still be easily destroyed especially if radiation causes latchup. MMICs and discrete devices have huge features in comparison yes, but the junctions still degrade notably under radiation.
From my opinion as someone working on LEO satellite hardware, it's easy to have opinions about stuff like correctness and reliability because it is not naturally intuitive and usually requires observation of many samples over a long time that it doesn't affect most engineers. However, I've definitely seen a strong correlation between the effort spent on correctness and reliability, and the success of missions.
Since then, we had massive advantages in manufacturing. Maybe COTS parts aren't as usable in space as they were back then, but we can now easily manufacture something more resilient or, as a fallback, simply use those old parts. Also, basically all current electronics are designed to be and are used on earth ~100% of the time. Over-engineering it for use in space is just a waste.
And is not just software. Reducing an entire computer room to the palm of your hand but with better storage, graphics and computing power is basically black magic. I can't imagine what Voyager could do with a current Nvidia chip.
2) Just because people is not trained in some specific domain does not mean that they couldn't be motivated to do it. I bet that the people that built the Voyager didn't born with the instructions engraved in their brains. And if they learned, other people can also.
If I learned something after lurking HN for a lot of years is to never, ever, underestimate this community. This place stills keep surprising me in good ways.
There are so many abstractions today that you don’t _have_ to know how computers work. They did.
Re: state of the art, you don’t need or want state of the art for building things that go into space, or underwater (closest analogue I can think of that I have experience in [operating, not coding for]). You want them to be rock-steady, with as close to zero bugs as possible, and to never, ever surprise you.
And if we look at the average dev today, most code is in the framework, or a node package, or composer package, and the average dev gets by via stack overflow or AI.
There are certainly devs that actually understand coding, but the average dev barely does. Most devs don't understand the underlying OS, the hardware, or externals such as databases at all. It's all abstracted away.
And coders back then had almost nothing abstracted away.
Programming for regimes with different constraints is…very different. In a very real sense, “their field” for most modern programmers isn’t even the same field as developing software for 1970s deep space probes, plus, the issue wasn’t even about software but about end-to-end building and launching space probes (that was both what the quote was about and the field of the Voyager project manager.
But thanks for demonstrating the kind of hubris that the post you were responding to described.
Developers in the 80 invented every algorithm we can now use with a simple import statement and single line function call.
Your statement is probably true for a minority of developers today, but not "Any professional programmer here"
You might be surprised about the reality of the situation.
I had a professor who worked on the design and fabrication of the Apollo Guidance Computers, which likely was a somewhat similar process to the one being discussed here. It's been quite a few years since his lecture on it, but the process went something like this:
They started with an analysis of the predicted lifetime/reliability of every chip type/component available to potentially include in the design.
The design was constrained to only use components with the top x% of predicted life.
Then they surveyed each manufacturer of each of those component types to find the manufacturer with the highest lifetime components for each of the highest lifetime component types.
Then they surveyed the manufacturing batches of that manufacturer, to identify the batches with the highest lifetimes from that manufacturer.
Then they selected components from the highest lifetime batches of from the highest lifetime manufacturers of the highest lifetime components.
Using those components, they assembled a series of guidance computers, in batches.
They tested those batches, pushing units from each batch to failure.
They then selected the highest quality manufacturing batch as the production units.
When he gave this talk, decades after the Apollo era, NASA had been continuing to run lifetime failure analyses on other units from the production batch, to try to understand the ultimate failure rate for theoretical purposes.
Several decades after the Apollo program ended, they had still never seen any failure events in these systems, and shortly before the time of his lecture, I believe NASA had finally shut off the failure testing of these systems, as they were so remote from then "modern" technology (this was decades ago, hence the quotes around "modern").
This is what happens when you have the best minds committed to designing systems that don't fail. Yes, the systems probably will fail before the heat death of the universe. No, we don't have any idea when that failure time will be. Yes, it's likely to be a very long time in the future.
(And, of course, this is typed from memory about a lecture decades ago on events happening decades before that. This being HN, someone here probably worked on those systems, in which case hopefully they can add color and fix any defects in the narrative above).
And a budget to support them.
> This is what happens when you have the best minds committed to designing systems that don't fail.
Given how times have changed, perhaps it is also valuable to note that other major-yet-unwritten factor: confidence in the supply chain.
This might seem like a nitpick, but changes in approach and mindset like this are often the difference between success and failure with "impossible" problems like this. So it's critical to get your approach right!
See also: https://www.nps.gov/subjects/museums/upload/10-01_508.pdf
The original engineer was right and you are not.
In contrast, India's decision to rely on solar panels led vikram lander to be dead in just 14 days due to lack of sunlight (afaik).
I'm curious about the rationale behind this choice when nuclear power seems like a far superior option. Can someone shed light on this decision?
India’s plutonium has already been spoken for.
The Europa Clipper has a huge array of solar panels instead of an RTG due to the last of the available supply going into the New Horizons spacecraft.
Pu238 was a cast-off isotope from nuclear weapons development so it was more readily available during the cold war. We should be happy that it's scarce now.
Also solar panels have gotten a lot better than they were when Voyager was launched, but even today anything going out past Saturn is not going to be able to use solar energy.
Are any of those candidates or are they just too small or with too poor a mass ratio compared to plutonium RTGs?
1. Solar is pretty good as far as Mars and it gets worse as it travel further from the Sun. This is why most probes that travel past Mars need a nuclear reactor (Voyager, Pioneer, Cassini, etc). Going closer to the sun they get even better
2. Sending radioactive materials on rockets presents a risk and it is avoided if possible, lunar probes are usually cheaper and can still benefit from solar, so no need for nuclear. Imagine throwing plutonium in the atmosphere in the case of an accident
3. Nuclear reactors in probes are small and rely on decay radiation, they _usually_ have pretty small powet output, solar has a lot
4. And last but not least, price, solar is much cheaper than nuclear
Am I wrong that the plutonium in the Voyagers is not in a fission reactor but in an RTG (Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator), which converts the heat from the plutonium into electricity. ?
I suppose the heat is result of fission, but I don't think an RTG is what is meant by a fission reactor. ??
Edit: Yep, not sure how I forgot about that.
Edit: it’s apparently still there and will be for a long time (!) albeit non-functional:
> Decay date: April 3, 5966 (planned)First, the nuclear power source is a giant hunk of plutonium. It is expensive to get, dangerous to use, and due to concerns about further refinement, is restricted internationally.
Second, it is toxic inherently — the source is continuously radioactive at a hazardous level to humans, plutonium itself has acute and long-term toxic effects aside from the radioactivity, and if a launch fails, the rtg will disintegrate and poison hundreds of miles (see Kosmos 954, which disintegrated over Canada)
Third, it is HEAVY. They produce 40W per kilogram. Solar panels produce three times that much on Mars, and can be folded compact for launch.
Voyager used an RTG because its planned mission took it far beyond where sunlight can generate power, and it could do so because it had the budget of NASA and plutonium from the Department of Energy.
Solar panels are way cheaper, lighter, easier to procure, easier to launch, and tend not to cause international incidents.
That's the main reason why spacecraft don't survive a temporary power outage: terrible environmentals.
But at this point, we don't have a lot of Pu-238, which is one of the only decent candidates.
They could only find a dozen of radioactive bits, each only dangerous within a very small area around it, and not really leaching anything due to its ceramic nature. Most of the fuel dispersed and became harmless by dilution, probably never even reached the surface.
The military probably have priority on the decisions about the allocations of their plutonium stocks.
Voyager to earth is "relatively" easy it "just" beams toward the sun. And earth can afford to get big antennas scanning.
We could make a Voyager 3, but I don't think there is any way to expect it to catch up with currently feasible technology. And it could only be launched at specific times.
It certainly could have more advanced sensors and batteries. I don't know if the battery improvement would really matter on a decades long mission.
Various forms of nuclear propulsion have been investigated. None of them are anywhere near ready for missions, but that seems to be more due to lack of investment in their development (and environmental/legal/regulatory/geopolitical/etc concerns) than any scientific obstacle. If NASA/etc were really serious about it (as in willing to spend multiple billions a year on it), it could probably be made to work in only a few years.
The idea pursued nowadays is you launch using chemical propulsion and then only turn on the nuclear propulsion once you reach a safe distance from Earth. This is different from the original 1950s Project Orion which proposed to use nuclear pulse propulsion (i.e. repurposing nuclear weapons for propulsion) from the surface to orbit, which would have produced enough fallout to likely kill a handful of people per launch (in the long-run through higher cancer rates). The question then is - is it safe to launch nuclear material to orbit using chemical propulsion? Yes, we can secure it in containers designed to survive catastrophic loss of the launch vehicle. But, will the general public believe it is safe, even if it actually is? Possibly not-which is a political obstacle rather than a technical one.
The other issue is that nuclear propulsion systems can be too large/heavy to launch on a single chemical rocket, but you could launch them as multiple modules assembled together in orbit.
I don’t think this need or should depend on off-Earth manufacturing or mining capacity. I think it is going to be a long time before the highly complex manufacturing supply chains needed to turn raw materials into cutting edge technology like nuclear space propulsion systems exists off Earth. But we should be able to manufacture them modularly on Earth, such that in space we’d be doing module assembly rather than manufacturing.
I think that’s probably a very optimistic timescale. If there’s heavy industry on the moon inside 50 years I’d be surprised.
…but we’re very close. The next technique will be flying near the sun then deploying a solar sail for a huge speed boost. Voyager goes 3 AU/yr, solar sail boost with todays technology will enable 7-9 AU/yr.
Highly recommend watching Slava Turyshev discuss his work on an SGL telescope, which employs this technique.
https://www.youtube.com/live/lqzJewjZUkk?si=57VS4oqbaKEXmyOR
Yes: we could lift off a much heavier spacecraft, give it plenty of fuel, and many of its parts would be lighter than their 1970s equivalent, giving us lots of room for modern sensors
No: the "battery" in the old ones is nuclear and it's going to be difficult to beat that (but not impossible: a nuclear stirling engine, either powered by fission or by decay, e.g. https://www.nasa.gov/technology/rps/stirling-convertor-sets-...)
Also no: the old Voyagers benefited from a lot of gravity assists from half the solar system, thanks to an alignment which won't happen again until 2151 (https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/5075/when-is-the-n...), so unless you're not in a hurry, we won't have that.
Why would we: the _point_ of the Voyager crafts was to do close flybys and collect plenty of data from the outer planets, not to go as far away and as fast as possible. You want to be as slow as possible near them, so you have science time. You're rushing this part in order to get right away to the centuries of nothing which follow?
Newer atomic batteries can theoretically last centuries instead of decades.
V'ger 1 atomic battery is based on Plutonium-238 which has a halflife of ~88 years. It's down to ~210W output from initial 470W at launch time.
Americium-241 has a half-life of over 400 years.
So yes maybe with Americium-241 we could have something which lasts 4 times a much _and_ gives us the same amount of power thanks to a SRG.
Voyager-2 gained about 10 km/s at Jupiter, about 5 km/s at Saturn, about 2 km/s at Uranus, and lost about 2 km/s at Neptune. [1]
Dawn spacecraft gained 11.5 km/s from ion thrusters.
So just gravity assist maneuver just around Jupiter alone + massive tank for ion thrusters gas might give 20+ km/s
Though I agree that value of such a mission would be low.
[1] https://www.planetary.org/articles/20130926-gravity-assist
If you approach e.g. Jupiter you gain speed (it's pulling you in), which you then lose as you get away from it (as it's still pulling you in, meh). Gravity assists work because you use your chemical rocket right when you are closest and speed away, "robbing" Jupiter of the chance to claim the energy it lent you on approach.
Ion thrusters have very low thrust, so you would accelerate veeeeery slowly away from Jupiter's gravity well - and in this time it will keep affecting you and slowing you down, and the whole thing would be barely worth doing.
You could bolt on a very simple solid rocket booster just for the gravity assist, of course, but its ISP will be lower and you'll have to carry its mass until you can expend it.
Which, to your point, only works against the idea of hypothetical Voyager 3.
Looks like we lost contact with 10 and 11 in 1995 and 2006 respectively. They both ran out of power and shut down.
The voyager missions used a rare planetary alignment to get boosts. And a radioisotope thermal engine that has gotten pushback in later spacecraft designs, although they have ceramic versions now meant to address most of the issues.
That said, New Horizons, which gave us those lovely shots of Pluto, was launched in 2006. But it is traveling faster than the Pioneers but slower than Voyagers, so it’ll be the third farthest away at some point.
1. Our rocket / propulsion technology today may be cheaper (thx largely to SpaceX), but it doesn't really necessarily provide MUCH more delta V. Meanwhile
2. Voyager launches relied on a once-in-a-blue-moon (not quite once in two centuries) alignment of various planetary bodies to give a spectacular orbital slingshot boosts.
So my limited understanding is that we can't really overtake voyagers very easily. Whether our current technology coild be made more reliable in the long term is another good point of discussion :-)
New Horizons didn't nearly overtake Voyager. It's currently traveling about 4 km/s slower, and as it's still closer to the Sun, it's also decelerating more.
If we had something capable of getting to Voyager in a year that might be worthwhile, because it would stand a chance of getting somewhere interesting in a few decades. But we are absolutely nowhere near that level.
That's not why Voyager's sensors are being shut down, they're being shut down because the probes no longer have the power to run them.
As others have pointed out, the speeds for Voyager 1 were because of gravity assist of Jupiter and Saturn while Voyager 2 was a gravity assist of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Jupiter & Saturn line up relatively often enough so we could try to outdo Voyager 1 speeds a bit with a lighter air craft due to various advancements. But it's unclear we'd learn anything really new from having sensors that reached further out and our technology for propulsion really hasn't meaningfully advanced to outdo gravity assists from Jupiter + Saturn. There's some proposals to use nuclear explosions behind a probe to achieve speeds of ~10k km/s which would be substantially faster but there's numerous obstacles (cost + international treaties banning the use of nuclear in space).
Not a couple of years. The Voyagers have been doing around 38 000 mph since the late 1970's. That is rougly 17 km/s. The proposed Interstellar Probe mission aims to do 20 km/s or slightly more. It will take it decades to overtake any of them (no actual overtaking will probably take place though, as its trajectory most likely will be different).
It's Quieter in the Twilight
https://www.space.com/nasa-voyager-mission-engineers-documen...
Interesting trying to manage their declining power budget. And decipher docs written 40+ years ago.
You can see something similar happening in bridges, weight per meter load has come down considerably since the 60s because material understanding is much more advanced and they meed less margin for the same safety factor.
> The Kurilpa Bridge is a multiple-mast, cable-stay structure based on principles of tensegrity producing a synergy between balanced tension and compression components to create a light structure which is incredibly strong.
Were the 2006 sony santa monica programmers smarter then us when they delivered God of War 2 for the PS2 on its tiny resources?
Usually the constraints force you to become inventive and smart. Put a hard limit of 128 mb per tab on web browsers and suddenly both the developers of the browsers and the web developers will become extremely smart.
The over abundance of resources has made the majority of software engineers lazy. If we once again live in scarcity times - suddenly people will start to ask why we need 8 abstraction layers to do something.
I would guess they were quite smart bunch, but no superhuman - just people tasked with extremely challenging task, trying to jury rig something on the edge of possibility. My guess is that they took their tasks more seriously and to heart.
I don't think "lazy" is the right word, it's just that cheap hardware makes most optimizations not worthwhile. Why spend weeks optimizing an application, costing thousands of dollars and potentially introducing a lot of complexity bugs, when paying 50$ instead of 5$ for a server is also an option? Not to mention the importance of time to market and the time value of money (even if the server cost will armotize, spending the money later might be worth it).
There obviously is some laziness and useless complexity in our industry, but a lot of it simply is the rational choice. We all love the ingenuity of assembler-hacking the last few bits of performance out of the CPU, but for most usescases, this is simply wasted effort.
The nuclear explosion may or may not have caused said plug to reach space - the data from the cameras indicate it had at least 6 times the needed escape velocity, but it is difficult to estimate whether it would completely disintegrate or if enough of it would survive the atmosphere and whether it would "count"
https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Tests/Plumbob.html (look for Pascal-B)
It was also slower, 150,000 mph, than Parker Solar Probe, which reached 430,000 mph.
I would rate it as the greatest experiment of modern times.
Why isn't this happening?
> but that just shift most of the cost into the payload
It reduces the cost, not shift it.
> And then there is no point in having such a fleet if you there isn't enough funding for scientists to process the results.
Plenty of funding would become available if the funding for junk science stops, such as:
"In 2021, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) awarded $549,000 to a Russian lab performing experiments on cats, including removing part of their brains and seeing if they could still walk on treadmills, according to the Washington Times." https://nypost.com/2024/11/13/us-news/where-elon-musk-can-st...
Is there some existing plan? A paper that supports this idea? It's not clear to me that the probe we send to one place for one purpose is the same we'd send to another.
> Building two identical probes would cost only marginally more than 1, perhaps 10% more.
I've read from experts - somewhere here on HN - that isn't how the costs work.
> Plenty of funding would become available if the funding for junk science stops, such as
> "In 2021, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) awarded $549,000 to a Russian lab performing experiments on cats, including removing part of their brains and seeing if they could still walk on treadmills, according to the Washington Times." https://nypost.com/2024/11/13/us-news/where-elon-musk-can-st...
$500k is not enough to matter for a space probe, and I don't see why that brain research is junk science. If you truly think the research was about half-brained cats, then you really should appreciate that research. :D
We've launched twins before. The two Voyagers, for example. Two Vikings, for another.
When we build different airplane models, quite a bit comes from other airplanes. Even if the parts aren't identical, they are usually just resized or tweaked or modernized. Look at all the 737 variants, and the 747 variants, for example. If every model was a ground-up redesign, nobody could afford to fly.
When the 757 and 767 were developed, there was a big push to share identical parts between them. This was a big success, and saved huge amounts of money.
> I've read from experts - somewhere here on HN - that isn't how the costs work.
I debated those experts here, and a lot of their arguments didn't hold up. For example:
1. only need to design once for N craft
2. only need to devise a test plan once
3. only need to build test equipment once
4. only need to develop the expertise once
5. only need to write the software once
and so on and so forth.
> I don't see why that brain research is junk science
What's more important? Solar system exploration or half-brain cats?
Good point. Do we know the marginal cost of the second one? Why don't we send twins now?
> When we build different airplane models, quite a bit comes from other airplanes.
I expect we're already doing that with space probes, to the degree it's possible. I feel like some of your argument is the old 'these people are idiots and I know obvious ways to do it better'.
A good question is, why doesn't NASA do it that way? It would be interesting to hear the response of someone there.
I can think of reasons it might not be effective - e.g., the probe for a few months of Europa terrain observation might be very different than the 10-year solar radiation observer, which might be much different than the Mars whatever, etc.
> I debated those experts here, and a lot of their arguments didn't hold up. For example: / 1. only need to [____] once
Those are the benefits of standardization and mass production and can be quite valuable, but not everything can be done that way. That's why we have different planes, cars, etc. I might want everyone in our company to use the same laptop, but different people have different needs.
I can come up with other possible issues, but I have no idea without someone with actual experience:
There can be a significant cost to engineering for standardization. Parts, assembly, a supply chain, a production line - maybe not worth the cost at the quantities needed. And there are things like the F-35, intended to save money by meeting the mission requirements of militaries in a ~dozen countries and services, including all of the US Air Force, Navy, and Marines - all simultaneously! Anyone who has designed even small systems would, I think, feel alarm at reading that. It took a little time and money to find a way to do all that effectively, please all those bosses, with an all-in-one tool. (Off the top of my head, just think of power supplies that can suit every possible demand on space probes!)
Weight and size are especially an issue for space probes, which would seem to make an all-in-one tool more challenging. The proposed solution often is modularization - a standard framework with interchangeable mission modules. In my limited experience trying it, it's a mess: when things break or need lots of extra attention, IME as a general rule it's most often at the interfaces between systems and between subsytems; the interchangeable module approach is asking for trouble. I know the US Navy tried that with littoral combat ships, and it failed. (Which doesn't mean it never succeeds.)
> What's more important? Solar system exploration or half-brain cats?
You really set yourself up ...
I also worked for a time as an electronics assembly guy (i.e. gnome). One task was to assemble 10 RS-232 electronic cards, all the same. The first one took me 2 hours. The last one 20 minutes.
The first time I took the intake manifold off of my V8 Mustang, it took me 2 hours. The 4th time, 20 minutes.
The same acceleration happens when I assemble IKEA furniture. Or when I helped a friend change 4 brake rotors on his car.
This is not because I invented a more efficient process. It's simply that I knew what to do.
I flat out do not believe there's something about space hardware that makes this not possible.
P.S. The service manager at a car dealer once told me that changing the alternator would cost 2 hours of a mechanic's time. I told him if it took more than 20 minutes the mechanic was incompetent, and proceeded to explain to the manager step-by-step what the exact procedure was for that model car. The result was I got a much better deal :-)
I agree. I'm sure everyone at NASA agrees as well. I won't go on and talk us into a circle.
Another issue may be that NASA often pushes the bleeding edge of space exploration - that is part of their job. Commercial companies can handle the the already established tech like orbital launch.
There's an excellent National Academies report on NASA from this past spring, which includes a great section on current leading missions, and the technologies needed, including those that must be developed. NASA seems to develop new tech for every mission; they take on missions before the R&D is done on many components - they seem to be just theories. That might be hard to mass produce.
Even at only 1% it would take under a year, but lots of breakthroughs needed for even that.
Well, at least you are self enlightened to recognize your flaw...